The latest market report of the Baltic International Shipping Council (BIMCO) shows that the current order volume of global shipyards is at a historical high, and China's shipbuilding industry market share has further expanded. However, as delivery tasks increase in the next few years, domestic shipyards are facing huge production capacity tests. Blind expansion of production will lay the foundation for the risk of subsequent idle production capacity.
As of September 1, 2026, the global order size reached 203.2 million corrected gross tons (CGT), an increase of 13% from 180 millionCGT in the same period last year. This data is slightly lower than the historical peak of 210.4 millionCGT set in May this year, but still exceeds the old record of 195.4 millionCGT in 2008.
Chinese shipyards won 74% of the world's new ship orders in the past year (according to CGT statistics, the same below). As of early September, China accounted for 64% of the world's on-hand orders, with South Korea and Japan accounting for 19% and 6% respectively.
Chinese shipyards have leading advantages in covering multiple mainstream ship types. In the field of oil tankers, liquefied gas carriers, bulk carriers, dry cargo ships and ro-ro ships, the proportion of orders held is no less than 72%. Especially in the field of container ships, it holds 81% of the world's orders.
Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said: “In the past 12 months, container ships have been the most important driver of this round of order expansion. Container ships currently account for 30% of global order books and contributed to 68% of the increase in orders over the past year.
The landing of a large number of orders means that delivery volume will increase significantly in the next few years.
The delivery volume of the three major shipbuilding countries will reach 40.1 million CGT in 2025, the planned delivery volume in 2026 will be as high as 55.9 million CGT, and will further rise to 60 million CGT in 2028. Among them, Chinese shipyards need to deliver 44 million CGT in 2028, which will set a new historical record and is almost twice the delivery volume in 2025 (22.7 million CGT).
Behind the overwhelming orders, production capacity pressure is highlighted. According to BIMCO statistics, based on the highest annual output in the past five years, Chinese shipyards have orders on hand equivalent to 4.2 years of production capacity, South Korea's is 1.9 years, and Japan's is 1.7 years. Chinese shipyards' order backlog is much higher than that of their Japanese and Korean counterparts.
If calculated based on the maximum annual planned delivery volume from 2021 to 2030, Chinese shipyards' orders are equivalent to 2.1 years of production capacity, while Japan and South Korea both dropped to 1.6 years.
BIMCO said that Chinese shipyards in particular need to expand production capacity to cope with delivery pressure in the next few years. At the same time, the agency warned that capacity expansion will also be accompanied by risks. Once the new ship market turns cold in the future, shipyards will face considerable operating pressure.
Looking back at the history of the industry, the large-scale ship booking boom before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 pushed shipyards to actively expand production capacity, bringing the global new ship delivery volume to 54.4 million CGT in 2010 and 2011; then the market weakened, and the delivery volume fell to a low of 31.2 million CGT in 2020, before bottoming out and rebounding.
During the downward cycle of the ship market, a large number of shipyards went bankrupt. Data show that the number of active shipyards in China dropped from 379 in 2010 to 117 in 2019; from a global perspective, from 2009 to 2017, the number of active shipyards worldwide dropped by as much as 60%.
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Attached: Key data and sources (Added by the organizer, not the original content)
Note: The following data are taken from the text of this article. Its original basis is the latest market report released by the Baltic International Shipping Council (BIMCO) in 2026, which was quoted by "Dragon Shipman". The full text of BIMCO's original report has not been made public. The data cited in this article are all quotations. Please indicate this level of quotation when citing. Compilation date 2026-11-03.
1. Global order backlog (as of September 1, 2026)
· Global order backlog was 203.2 million revised gross tons (CGT), an increase of 13% from 180 million CGT in the same period last year.
· The historical peak reached in May 2026 was 210.4 million CGT, and the current level is slightly lower than that peak.
· The old record in 2008 was 195.4 million CGT, which has been surpassed by this round.
2. Market share (by CGT)
· New ship orders: Chinese shipyards took 74% of global orders in the past 12 months.
· Orders on hand: China 64%, South Korea 19%, Japan 6%.
· Ship type (China accounts for the proportion of global orders on hand): container ships 81%; oil tankers, liquefied gas carriers, bulk carriers, dry cargo ships, and ro-ro ships all account for no less than 72%.
· Container ships account for 30% of the global orderbook and contributed 68% of the increase in orders over the past year (stated by Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO).
3. Delivery Forecast (CGT)
· Total of the three major shipbuilding countries: actual delivery in 2025 40.1 million CGT (peak); **2027** scheduled 55.9 million, 2028 scheduled 60 million.
· ⚠ Chinese translation correction: The main text of this article states that "2026 planned delivery volume is as high as 55.9 million CGT", which is inconsistent with the original English text of BIMCO. The original text is "55.9m CGT and 60.0m CGT are currently scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028", that is, 55.9 million corresponds to 2027, and 60 million corresponds to 2028, 2026 does not have this number. The original English text shall prevail.
· China: 22.7 million in 2025, 44 million to be delivered in 2028, approximately 1.94x of 2025.
4. Order backlog years (two calibers, not interchangeable)
· Caliber 1, calculated based on the highest annual output in the past five years: China 4.2 years, South Korea 1.9 years, Japan 1.7 years.
· Caliber 2, calculated based on the maximum annual planned delivery volume from 2021 to 2030: China 2.1 years, Japan and South Korea 1.6 years each.
· The divisors of the two calibers are different (actual maximum output vs planned delivery volume), and the result is nearly twice as different. The caliber used must be indicated when quoting.
5. Historical reference
· The ship-booking boom before the 2008 financial crisis drove production expansion. In 2010 and 2011, global new ship deliveries reached 54.4 million CGT.
· The market subsequently weakened, with 2020 deliveries falling to a low of 31.2 million CGT.
· The number of active shipyards in China dropped from 2010 379 to 2019 117; from 2009 to 2017, the number of active shipyards worldwide dropped by 60%.
References (GB/T 7714—2015)
[1] Longde Shipman. China’s shipbuilding production capacity, doubled in 2028 [EB/OL]. WeChat public account, (2026-11-03)[2026-11-03]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SBw53QsRccOJIXYOi28Jiw.
[2] BIMCO. Market analysis report[R/OL]. Baltimore: Baltic International Shipping Association, 2026[2026-11-03]. (This article is cited by [1], the original report is not available)
Example of how to write annotations in text folders
· Scale of orders on hand: As of September 1, 2026, global 203.2 million CGT, a year-on-year increase of 13% (Longde Shipman, 2026, quoted from BIMCO).
· China’s share: 64% of global orders on hand and 74% of new ship orders (ibid.).
· Production capacity backlog: Based on the highest annual output in the past five years, China's orders on hand are equivalent to 4.2 years of production capacity (same as above); if calculated based on the planned delivery volume in 2021-2030, it is 2.1 years - the two calibers cannot be mixed.
Use reminder
· 1. The two "production capacity of several years" cannot be quoted side by side. 4.2 years and 2.1 years are not two results of the same algorithm, but have different denominators: one uses the historical maximum production, and the other uses the future planned delivery volume. Comparing them in the same sentence will lead to opposite conclusions.
· Second, "double production capacity" is a description of the delivery task, not a doubling of production capacity itself. In the article, "44 million CGT delivered in 2028, almost twice the 22.7 million in 2025" refers to the delivery volume that needs to be completed, provided that the production capacity can keep up; the title statement can easily be read as that the production capacity has been doubled.
· Third, 74% (new orders received) and 64% (orders held) are not the same indicator. The former is flow, the latter is inventory, and the statistical intervals are different and cannot be added or subtracted.
· 4. All data in the full text are quoted. The original BIMCO report has not been seen. If it needs to be quoted in a formal manuscript, it is recommended to check it with the version released on the official BIMCO website before writing.