Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/13449.html
In 2019, my country's shipbuilding industry focused on supply-side structural reform and continued to promote the transformation of the industry to high-quality development. With the joint efforts of the entire industry, my country's shipbuilding industry made steady progress, the ship structure was upgraded and optimized, corporate profits stabilized and rebounded, the reorganization of the three major shipbuilding state-owned enterprises steadily advanced, the profitability of the ship repair industry increased significantly, the "destocking" of marine engineering equipment made progress, and the intelligent transformation accelerated. However, due to the slowdown in world economic and trade growth and the increasing geopolitical conflicts, The adverse effects of the sharp drop in demand for new ships, deep-seated problems such as difficulty in employment, difficulty in financing, and difficulty in receiving orders have not been fundamentally resolved, and the situation facing the shipbuilding industry is still severe.
In 2019, the country's shipbuilding completed 36.72 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. New ship orders received were 29.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. At the end of December, the number of ship orders on hand was 81.66 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%.
The number of completed export ships nationwide was 33.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%; the number of export ship orders undertaken was 26.95 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%; at the end of December, the number of export ship orders on hand was 75.21 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. Export ships accounted for 91.3%, 92.7% and 92.1% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively.
From January to November 2019, there were 1,052 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size across the country, achieving main business income of 394.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises 287.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%; ship supporting enterprises 43.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; ship repair enterprises 21.29 billion yuan, A year-on-year increase of 15.3%; ship modification companies were 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; ship dismantling companies were 7.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies were 30.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%.
Shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; ship supporting enterprises 2.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%; ship repair enterprises 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; ship modification enterprises 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.1%; ship dismantling enterprises 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.1%. A year-on-year increase of 110%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies lost 2.3 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous year.
From January to November 2019, my country's ship export value was US$22.12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$11.27 billion, accounting for 50.9% of total exports. Ship products are exported to 212 countries and regions, still mainly in Asia. The amount of my country's ship exports to Asia is 12.43 billion US dollars, accounting for 56.2% of total exports; the amount of ship exports to Europe was 3.61 billion US dollars, accounting for 16.3%; the amount of ship exports to Africa was 2.48 billion US dollars, accounting for 11.2%.
In 2019, my country's backbone shipbuilding companies increased investment in scientific research and continued to optimize ship structures. New breakthroughs were made in the R&D and production of smart ships: the "one platform + N smart applications" model was successfully demonstrated and applied on three mainstream ship types, and my country's shipbuilding industry has fully entered the new era of "Smart Ship 1.0". New results have been achieved in the construction of green and environmentally friendly ship types: a 174,000 cubic meter dual-fuel powered liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship, A 7,500-space LNG-powered car ro-ro ship was successfully delivered, and a 23,000TEU LNG-powered ultra-large container ship was launched. New progress was made in the construction of luxury cruise ships: the first polar expedition cruise ship was successfully delivered and completed its maiden voyage to Antarctica, and domestic large-scale cruise ships entered the substantial construction stage. New results were achieved in the construction of high-end scientific research vessels: the "Hailong" saturated diving support ship was delivered, my country's first self-built polar icebreaking research vessel "Xuelong 2" and "Xuelong" launched the "Double Dragon Exploration" together.
In 2019, shipbuilding companies strengthened risk management and control by formulating project management, using robot production lines to promote intelligent applications, and deepening budget systems to strengthen cost management and other methods to reduce costs and increase efficiency. At the same time, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated and ship plate prices fell year-on-year. The three major shipbuilding state-owned enterprises effectively reduced corporate debt levels by optimizing debt structures, carrying out equity financing, and implementing market-oriented "debt-for-equity swaps". The industry-wide asset-liability ratio dropped from 69.4% to 68.9%. A year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Statistics show that from January to November 2019, the operating expenses, management expenses and financial expenses of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size decreased by 2.9%, 7.7% and 24.6% respectively year-on-year. The total profit was 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. The efficiency of shipbuilding companies has stabilized and rebounded.
In 2019, state-owned enterprises in the shipbuilding industry actively and steadily promoted strategic reorganization. The former China State Shipbuilding Corporation and the former China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation implemented a joint reorganization to establish the newly established China State Shipbuilding Corporation, and took this opportunity to strengthen the main industry, strengthen technological innovation, and promote resource integration. China State Shipbuilding has China's largest shipbuilding and repair base and the most complete ship and supporting product research and development capabilities, and has more prominent comprehensive advantages in shipbuilding, ship supporting and industry-finance integration. China Merchants Industrial Group Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Co., Ltd., integrated Nanjing Jinling Shipyard, AVIC Weihai Shipyard and AVIC Dingheng Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. to create a new brand of China Merchants Jinling special ship business. COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. vigorously promoted the professional integration of enterprises within the group, completed the equity acquisition of Weihai Technology and Shanghai Kawasaki, and completed the integration of Dalian Disch and Nantong Disch. Through asset restructuring, the central shipbuilding enterprise group focused more on strengthening and optimizing its main industry. Continuously promote the concentration of resources to main business enterprises and advantageous enterprises.
In 2019, my country's ship repair industry made full use of the opportunity of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Ballast Water Management Convention and the sulfur limit order to be fully implemented, and actively undertook the installation business of ship ballast water treatment systems and desulfurization towers. Statistics show that my country's major ship repair companies undertook the installation of desulfurization towers 945 times, an increase of 5.5% over 2018. Ship repair output value increased by 60% year-on-year, and corporate profitability increased significantly. At the same time, The ship repair industry continues to promote green ship repair technology innovation. The ultra-high-pressure water rust removal equipment independently developed by Zhoushan Wanbang Yongyue Ship Repair Co., Ltd. has been widely used in many ship repair companies. The "Standard Conditions for Green Ship Repair Enterprises in the Ship Repair Industry" was released and implemented, promoting the high-quality development of the ship repair industry.
In 2019, my country's key offshore equipment manufacturing companies seized on the moderate recovery trend of the global offshore equipment upstream operating market and actively promoted the "destocking" of offshore equipment through methods such as "renting, transferring, selling, and linking." According to incomplete statistics, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, China Merchants Industries, COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry and other companies leased and sold more than ten drilling platforms; Fujian Shipbuilding Industry Group Co., Ltd., COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry and other companies delivered more than 60 offshore engineering ships of various types.
In 2019, shipbuilding companies carried out in-depth integrated development of informatization and industrialization, taking intelligent manufacturing as the main direction of strengthening management, reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the shipbuilding industry. Two ship intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration project units, Nantong COSCO Kawasaki Ship Engineering Co., Ltd. and Dalian COSCO Kawasaki Ship Engineering Co., Ltd., have significantly shortened the production cycle and significantly reduced material consumption through the use of intelligent automated production line operations such as "comprehensive steel plate printers", "steel plate CNC cutting" and "welding robots". The number of operating personnel has been significantly reduced. The digital workshop for marine engineering electromechanical equipment built by Wuhan Marine Machinery Co., Ltd. has shortened the research and development cycle of ship machinery products by more than 30% and increased production efficiency by more than 20%. The intelligent laser hybrid welding production line independently developed by Yantai CIMC Raffles Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. has reduced construction hours by 30% and increased production efficiency by 40% after being put into use. The intelligent ship manufacturing assembly line developed and manufactured by the Shanghai Ship Technology Research Institute has effectively improved product quality and reduced energy consumption by 30%. The labor ratio is reduced by 40%, production efficiency is increased by 50%, and the shipbuilding industry has made remarkable achievements in transforming into intelligence.
In 2019, the world's shipbuilding industry is still in an adjustment cycle. The in-depth adjustment of my country's shipbuilding industry has accelerated the differentiation of enterprises. The concentration of the shipbuilding industry has further increased. The competitive advantages of key shipbuilding companies are obvious. The top 20 companies in new ship orders accounted for 90.8% of the national share. 6 companies entered the top 10 in the world in terms of new orders. However, the "financing difficulty" situation in the shipbuilding industry has not been improved, especially some companies with good operating conditions and excellent product quality. Backbone shipping companies with strong international competitiveness have encountered difficulties in receiving orders and producing and operating due to their inability to obtain letters of guarantee in a timely manner. Some financial institutions still adopt a "one-size-fits-all" approach to financing shipbuilding companies, reducing the total amount of guarantees for shipbuilding companies, refusing to issue ship advance payment guarantees or extending the issuance cycle. There are still gaps in the integration of industry and finance in the shipping industry, and the implementation of the differentiated credit policy with support and control required by the Central Economic Work Conference has not been fully reflected.
In 2019, the problem of "difficulty in recruiting, retaining, and expensive labor" in the shipbuilding industry has become more prominent. The new generation of young people are unwilling to enter the shipbuilding industry due to the poor working environment, high risk factor, and high skill requirements in shipyards. Since the efficiency of shipbuilding companies has declined significantly compared with before the international financial crisis, the loss of university graduates, senior shipbuilding professionals, and skilled technicians has been serious. The labor costs of shipbuilding companies have risen rigidly at a rate of 5% to 10% every year, which is much faster than the improvement rate of production efficiency of shipbuilding companies. This has put tremendous pressure on shipbuilding companies that are already operating at low profits or even losses. Currently, my country's shipbuilding industry has entered a period of deep adjustment and a critical period of restructuring its advantages. The problem of labor difficulties and high labor costs should attract great attention from all parties.
In 2019, affected by factors such as the slowdown in world economic recovery, intensified international trade disputes, frequent geopolitics, and other factors, the number of new ship orders accepted worldwide dropped significantly, and the global ship orders on hand dropped to less than 200 million deadweight tons, a new low since the international financial crisis. Enterprises in the world's major shipbuilding countries were deeply affected, and the production security coefficients of various countries (ship orders on hand/average of new ship completions in the past three years) continued to decline. As of the end of 2019, The production security coefficient of Korean shipbuilding companies is 1.94, the production security coefficient of Japanese shipbuilding companies is 1.91, and the production security coefficient of Chinese shipbuilding companies is 2.1.
In recent years, the global new ship order structure has developed in a balanced manner from the traditional three major mainstream ship types to the five major mainstream ship types, and the demand for orders for LNG ships and passenger ships (including luxury cruise ships) has increased significantly. In 2019, in terms of revised gross tonnage, global new ship orders for bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships, LNG ships and passenger ships (including luxury cruise ships) accounted for 20.7%, 13.3%, and 20.1% of all orders, respectively. 22.5% and 16.5%. Korean shipbuilding companies relied on their strong competitive advantages in the field of LNG ships to undertake 48 LNG ship orders; European shipbuilding companies undertook 33 luxury cruise orders, totaling 2.87 million corrected gross tonnage. At present, my country's shipbuilding industry is still dominated by the construction of bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships. In terms of deadweight tonnage, the international market share of the three major shipbuilding indicators can still maintain its lead; in terms of corrected gross tonnage, The gap between the international market shares of the three major shipbuilding indicators is widening.
In 2019, after an adjustment period of more than 10 years, the global shipbuilding industry is forming a new competitive landscape under the joint action of market mechanisms and industrial development cycles. In my country, the integration of the industry based on the strategic reorganization of central enterprise groups is accelerating. South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries has substantially launched the Daewoo Shipbuilding Marine M&A plan, further strengthening the competitiveness of the Korean shipbuilding industry in the field of high value-added ship types through strong alliances. Japan's Imabari Shipbuilding and Japan United Shipbuilding have implemented business alliances. The integration of shipbuilding companies continues to deepen. Italian Fincantieri Group and French Naval Group have joined forces to establish the "NAVIRIS" joint venture, marking great progress in mergers and reorganization within the European shipbuilding industry. Global shipbuilding companies are accelerating integration, and a new competitive landscape is taking shape.
Looking forward to 2020, the world economy is still at the bottom. As trade tensions ease, global economic growth is expected to recover slowly. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others predict that the global economy will grow by 3.6%, significantly higher than the 3% in 2019. China and the United States have reached a first-phase economic and trade agreement, which will expand imports of agricultural products, energy products, industrial products and other types from the United States, which will be beneficial to the custom-made demand for main ship types. Superimposed on the IMO sulfur limit order taking effect, After the new regulations are implemented in an orderly manner, the wait-and-see mood of shipowners will gradually ease, and orders are expected to be brought to shipbuilding companies. Based on the research results of experts from all parties, it is initially estimated that the global new ship transaction volume in 2020 will be 75 million to 90 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be around 100 million deadweight tons; the number of orders on hand by the end of 2020 is expected to remain at the level of 170 million deadweight tons. In 2020, my country's shipbuilding completion volume is expected to be approximately 36 million. million deadweight tons, basically the same as in 2019, and the number of new orders continued to grow. At the end of the year, the number of orders on hand was approximately 80 million deadweight tons.
It is recommended that financial institutions implement differentiated credit policies, adopt a "one enterprise, one policy" approval method for some backbone shipping companies with good operating conditions and high product technology content, and provide targeted financing support to shipbuilding companies that require letters of guarantee. At the same time, further increase information communication between financial institutions and shipping companies to improve the accuracy of financial services.
It is recommended that shipbuilding enterprises explore and reform the existing employment model, and adopt measures such as increasing the number of workers, improving worker benefits, improving the working environment, and strengthening the worker skills training system to retain workers. Under the current conditions, solidly improve production efficiency, steadily develop automated tooling, improve the level of informatization, and promote the application of intelligent manufacturing-related technologies to alleviate the current tense employment situation.
It is recommended that shipping companies actively respond to the actual situation of insufficient market demand. Focusing on the country's strategy of building a maritime power, actively expand the blue economic space, promote the integration of ship and offshore engineering equipment manufacturing industries with tourism, fishery, wind power and other renewable energy, deep sea space and mineral resource development and other fields, expand market segments, actively create demand, cultivate new marine economic growth points, and accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the shipbuilding and offshore engineering industry structure.