Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/19189.html
The 2023 China Shipbuilding Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index (CCI) is 894 points, an increase of 130 points compared with 2022, and a year-on-year increase of 17.0%. From a full-year perspective, the CCI shows a trend of quarterly growth.
In the first quarter, my country's on-hand ship orders increased by 15.6% year-on-year, and Clarkson's new ship price index rose by 9 points year-on-year. However, the comprehensive freight index fell by 30.8% year-on-year due to the correction of the international container ship market, dragging down the leading indicators to decline slightly. Focus on monitoring that shipbuilding companies have sufficient orders on hand, production capacity utilization maintains a good level, and corporate efficiency gradually improves, driving the substantial growth of synchronous indicators. The growth of synchronous indicators covers the decline of leading indicators. The CCI in the first quarter was 772 points, 8 points higher than the fourth quarter of 2023.
In the second quarter, my country's on-hand ship orders increased by 8.2% month-on-month, and Clarkson's new ship price index rose 6 points month-on-month. However, the international shipping market experienced phased adjustments, and the comprehensive freight index fell 22.9% month-on-month, dragging down the leading indicators. However, raw material prices continued to decline and the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. Corporate efficiency continued to improve, with main business income increasing by 19.4% month-on-month, and operating profit margin increasing by 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. It led to a substantial growth in synchronous indicators. The growth in synchronous indicators covered the decline in leading indicators. The CCI in the second quarter was 798 points, an increase of 26 points from the first quarter and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%.
In the third quarter, my country's on-hand ship orders increased by 8.2% quarter-on-quarter, Clarkson's new ship price index continued to rise by 4 points quarter-on-quarter, the comprehensive freight index rebounded by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, and leading indicators continued to grow. Focus on monitoring shipbuilding companies' on-hand orders, full production tasks, and production capacity utilization maintained at a high level. Corporate efficiency continued to improve, with main business income increasing by 5% quarter-on-quarter, and operating profit margins increasing by 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driving simultaneous indicators to grow significantly. The rise in leading indicators and concurrent indicators has promoted the substantial growth of CCI. In the third quarter, the CCI reached 878 points, an increase of 80 points in the quarter and a month-on-month increase of 10%.
In the fourth quarter, the comprehensive freight index rose 17.5% month-on-month from its low point, the new ship price index continued to rise by 3 points month-on-month, and the number of ship orders in hand increased by 3.3% month-on-month. Shipbuilding companies were focused on monitoring that the production tasks were full, and the main business income of enterprises increased by 8.3% month-on-month, driving a substantial increase in concurrent indicators. At the end of the year, the CCI further rose to 894 points, the highest level since 2012.
Looking forward to 2024, the global economic growth is expected to slow down and will face many challenges and uncertainties. The world shipping and new shipbuilding markets may fall back. However, shipbuilding companies have sufficient orders and good production capacity utilization. Overall, the CCI will remain at a high level in 2024.
Leading indicators: focus on monitoring the number of ship orders held by shipbuilding companies, new ship price index and comprehensive freight index; concurrent indicators: focus on monitoring shipbuilding companies' capacity utilization, main business income and operating profit margin; lagging indicators: growth rate of global fleet ownership.