Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10199.html
In 2014, in the face of the slowdown in world economic recovery, increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, and overcapacity in shipping and shipbuilding, the shipbuilding industry, guided by policies and forced by the market, accelerated the pace of adjustment and transformation, struggled to overcome difficulties, and withstood the test of various difficulties and risks such as the demand for new ships increased and then decreased, the contradiction between overcapacity became prominent, and the risks of the marine engineering industry emerged. The overall competitiveness improved against the trend, and the status of the world's largest shipbuilding country was further consolidated. Industrial structure adjustment has taken solid steps.
In 2014, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 39.05 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, and the decline rate was 10.8 percentage points narrower than the previous year. Looking at the quarterly basis, affected by the reduction in the number of ships to be delivered, the shipbuilding completion volume fell significantly year-on-year in the first three quarters, and gradually stabilized and rebounded in the fourth quarter.
In 2014, the number of new ship orders received across the country was 59.95 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. Looking at each quarter, new orders were affected by the shrinking market, showing a trend of first high and then low.
In 2014, the number of orders on hand nationwide was 148.9 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%. Looking at quarters, the number of orders on hand continued to grow in the first three quarters, but fell back month by month in the fourth quarter due to the decline in new orders.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2014, there were 1,491 shipbuilding enterprises above designated size in the country, with main business income of 633.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In terms of industries, shipbuilding companies were 401.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. Ship supporting companies were 103.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Ship repair companies were 25.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. %; in terms of large, medium and small enterprises, the revenue of large enterprises was 316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, the medium-sized enterprises were 157.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the small enterprises were 160.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2014, the total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country were 26.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In terms of industries, shipbuilding companies were 15.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Ship supporting companies were 5.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Ship repair companies were 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.3%; in terms of large, medium and small, large 12.42 billion yuan. billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and that of small enterprises was 7.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%. Small and medium-sized enterprises have a certain ability to resist risks.
In 2014, the country completed 33.11 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%; the number of export ship orders undertaken was 55.51 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%; as of the end of December, the number of export ship orders held was 142.8 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. Export ships accounted for 84.8% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 92.6% and 95.9%.
In 2014, my country's ship exports amounted to US$23.78 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, and the decline narrowed by 11.2 percentage points. In terms of exported ship products, bulk carrier exports were US$8.11 billion, accounting for 34.1%; container ship exports were US$5.11 billion, accounting for 21.5%; oil tanker exports were US$2.27 billion, accounting for 9.5%; light ships, fire boats, The exports of crane ships and other ships that are not mainly for navigation are US$2.62 billion, accounting for 11%; the exports of floating or submersible drilling or production platforms are US$2.03 billion, accounting for 8.5%; the exports of tugs and pushers are US$1.29 billion, accounting for 5.4%; among my country's exported ship products, bulk carriers, container ships and oil tankers still dominate. By export market, exports of ships to Asia are US$14.05 billion, Accounting for 59.1%, ship exports to Africa are US$1.06 billion, accounting for 4.5%. Ship exports to Europe are US$4.02 billion, accounting for 16.9%. Ship exports to Latin America are US$3.16 billion, accounting for 13.3%. Ship exports to Oceania are US$1.25 billion, accounting for 5.3%. Asia is still my country’s largest ship export market.
In 2014, central leaders inspected the shipbuilding industry many times. Vice Premier Ma Kai went to Liaoning and Jiangsu Province to investigate shipbuilding and shipping enterprises to promote the implementation of various policies in the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)" issued by the State Council. The State Council and relevant departments issued "Several Opinions on the Healthy Development of the Maritime Industry", "Implementation Plan for Scrapping and Updating Old Transport Ships and Single-hull Oil Tankers", and "Guidelines for High-tech Ship Scientific Research Projects" (2014)", "Ocean Engineering Equipment Scientific Research Project Guide (2014)", "Ocean Engineering Equipment Project Implementation Plan" and other supporting documents. Encourage the early scrapping and renewal of old transport ships, support administrative law enforcement, official ship construction and fishing vessel renewal, encourage ship buyer credit business, increase credit financing support and innovative financial support, strengthen enterprise technological progress, control new production capacity, support production capacity structure adjustment and other policies to proceed in an orderly manner as planned.
In 2014, my country's key shipbuilding enterprises actively adapted to the new trends in international ship technology and product development, strengthened demand guidance, adjusted product structure, and vigorously developed green and environmentally friendly ships with high technical content and large market potential, special special ships, and high-tech ships. The repair load ratio of completed ships reached 0.366, an increase of 0.024 percentage points from last year. They undertook batches of 14.5 thousand box container ships and 174 thousand cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Ships; 90,000-ton ice area semi-submersible ship, 1,600-passenger high-end luxury ro-ro passenger ship, 5,000-ton crane pipe-laying ship. In the field of shipbuilding, product transformation has achieved remarkable results. 18,000-ton container ships have been docked and loaded, 8,500-space car ro-ro ships have been undocking, polar heavy-duty deck transport ships have been built, very large liquefied gas carriers (VLGC) terminals have been commissioned, and 45,000-ton ro-ro box ships have entered serial construction. The design of 70 thousand/100 thousand gross tonnage luxury cruise ships has been completed. In the field of offshore engineering equipment construction, Offshore Oil No. 118 FPSO has been completed and delivered. Deepwater drilling ships, liquefied natural gas floating production storage and offloading units (LNG-FPSO), liquefied natural gas floating storage and regasification units (LNG-FSRU) and multi-type offshore engineering auxiliary ships have all been independently developed. In addition, shipbuilding companies have invested in scientific research funds and trained scientific and technological teams. Remarkable achievements have also been made in technological innovation and the adoption of new technologies and new processes. The shipbuilding manufacturing industry is developing in the direction of intelligent design, intelligent products, refined management, and information integration.
In 2014, the number of new ship orders in the global shipping market showed a trend of highs and lows, and the offshore engineering equipment market continued to decline. The market environment has experienced adverse changes, but my country's shipbuilding companies and key offshore engineering companies relied on their own advantages to work hard to accept orders. New orders accepted throughout the year were 59.95 million deadweight tons, and the world market share increased from 47.9% in the previous year to 50.5%, continuing to remain the first in the world. Undertaken 31 orders for various types of offshore engineering equipment, There were 149 offshore engineering ships, with an order amount of US$14.76 billion, accounting for 35.2% of the global market share, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from 2013, ranking first in the world.
Implementing the spirit of the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Resolving Serious Overcapacity Conflicts", various localities and groups have actively carried out clean-up work on shipbuilding production capacity, eliminating nearly 10 million tons of production capacity; supporting qualified shipbuilding companies to transform marine engineering equipment, transferring about 5 million deadweight tons of shipbuilding capacity; suspending the construction of a number of planned large-scale shipbuilding projects. The review of the "Shipping Industry Standard Conditions" was carried out, and a total of two batches of 60 companies were announced after passing the review; the management of marine engineering equipment manufacturing was strengthened. To guide the sustainable and healthy development of the industry, the "Ocean Engineering Equipment Specifications and Conditions" has been released; to implement new international shipbuilding norms and standards, we completed training for 222 companies and 587 people throughout the year, and promoted the transformation and upgrading of product structure.
In 2014, the total completion of shipbuilding in the three major shipbuilding bases of the Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta accounted for more than 90%. The concentration of the top 10 companies in the country's shipbuilding completions was 50.6%, the top 20 companies were 71.6%, and the top 30 companies were 83.8%, which were 3.2, 5.9 and 7.4 percentage points higher than last year respectively. The industry concentration rate has further improved. my country has 4 The number of new orders received by each company ranks among the top 10 in the world. China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation rank first and third among the world's shipbuilding groups in terms of new orders and orders held. A number of key offshore engineering equipment companies have gradually been formed, market competitiveness has been improved, and international status has been enhanced.
In 2014, my country's shipping companies not only worked hard to win orders for the three mainstream ship types, but also achieved excellent results in finding their positioning in market segments. Guangzhou Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd. undertook 2 polar heavy-duty deck carriers and 1 large luxury ro-ro passenger ship; Hudong-Zhonghua undertook 4 174,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) Ships; CSSC Chengxi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. undertook 19 "dolphin-type" bulk carriers; AVIC Dingheng Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. undertook 10 25,000-ton stainless steel chemical tankers; Dalian COSCO Shipbuilding Engineering Co., Ltd., Xiamen Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., Fujian Southeast Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., Wuchang Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., etc. undertook batches of submarine support ships, anchor tug supply ships, platform supply ships and other high-end offshore engineering ships.
In 2014, with the substantial year-on-year increase in the number of ships started, and the support of national policies such as the elimination of old ships, my country's ship supporting industry has experienced restorative growth. At the same time, key ship supporting enterprises have increased technological research and development, strengthened product development and market expansion. The country's first green and environmentally friendly W6X72 main engine, 11S90ME-C9.2 marine low-speed diesel engine, was delivered. 6S40ME-B9.3 marine low-speed diesel engine; self-developed electric propulsion system integration, high-efficiency twisting rudder, full-turn rudder paddle system, 350-ton double-drum towing machine, integrated ship navigation system, 1600 kW telescopic full-turn dynamic positioning thruster and a number of supporting equipment have been shipped; self-developed comprehensive bridge system and key equipment, low-voltage high-power hydraulic motor, SXD-MAN12V32/40 crude oil generator set, combined tow cable crane, DP3 dynamic positioning system and other product technologies fill the domestic gap and break the foreign monopoly; the independently developed self-elevating platform lifting system has been exported in batches, and the dynamic positioning system has been recognized by users.
Statistics show that in 2014, the main business income of ship supporting enterprises was 94.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The completed marine low-speed diesel engines were nearly 7 million horsepower, a year-on-year increase of 71.6%. The medium and low-speed diesel engines undertook exceeded 12 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 100%, anchor gears, steering gears, cranes, superchargers, propellers, The output of major ancillary products such as crankshafts has also increased significantly year-on-year. The localization rate of my country's bulk carriers has reached about 80%, and the localization rate of oil tankers and small and medium-sized container ships has reached about 70%.
Since the beginning of this year, the country has introduced a series of micro-stimulus policies, which has significantly loosened funds in the inter-bank market, especially the rapid decline in short-term funding rates, creating better financing opportunities for the shipbuilding industry. China State Shipbuilding Corporation successfully issued two 5 billion yuan super-short-term financing bonds (SCP), with an annual interest rate of only 4.65%, reducing financing costs. The Export-Import Bank of China provided China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation with a preferential interest rate working capital loan of 9 billion yuan to support the group's production and development, alleviating the financial pressure of the company. At the same time, The ship financing leasing business has developed rapidly and has become the main channel for ship financing after bank loans. Statistics show that in 2014, only three leasing companies, including China Minsheng Leasing, Bank of Communications Leasing and CSSC Leasing, ordered a total of more than 4 million deadweight tons of ships, contributing a large number of orders to my country's shipbuilding industry with financial innovation models.
In 2014, my country's new ship orders were nearly 60 million deadweight tons, which remained at a high level overall, but the transaction volumes in each quarter were 2584, 1496, 1168 and 7.47 million deadweight tons respectively, showing a decreasing trend. In the first quarter, the good market situation at the end of 2013 continued, but the market demand dropped significantly. The main reasons are analyzed. On the one hand, the world economic recovery is slowing down, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the shipping market has not been fundamentally resolved. Orders have gradually decreased; on the other hand, the plunge in international oil prices has reduced shipowners' enthusiasm for ordering energy-saving ships, delayed the dismantling of old ships, and increased shipowners' speed to release shipping capacity, reducing the demand for new ships.
Affected by demand in 2014, it is difficult for new ship prices to maintain an upward trend. On the other hand, the average annual salary of my country's shipbuilding workers reached 45,000 yuan, an increase of 2x compared with 2004. Due to the rapid rise in labor costs, the cost advantage of the labor-intensive shipbuilding industry compared with Japan and South Korea has gradually declined; at the same time, "difficult and expensive financing" is still a prominent problem faced by the shipbuilding industry, especially the shipbuilding industry. The shipbuilding industry is listed as one of the five major overcapacity industries. Financing platforms such as banks and local governments lack interest rate flexibility. The characteristics of high leverage ratio and strong capital demand have raised the cost of capital. Statistics show that in 2014, the financial expenses of the shipbuilding industry were 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, which was 17.7 percentage points higher than the main business income. In addition, the ships completed and delivered in the next few years are all low-priced ships undertaken after the financial crisis. Difficulty in profitability will become the primary problem that plagues the development of enterprises.
In recent years, although the national shipbuilding production capacity has been eliminated, digested, integrated, and transferred by nearly 20 million tons, in the face of a sluggish market, the capacity utilization rate of my country's shipbuilding industry is still at a low level, and there is still a large gap between the industry's reasonable level of capacity utilization. To solve the problem of overcapacity, on the one hand, enterprises need to further focus on structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and strive to undertake more ships. On the other hand, governments at all levels must further promote the implementation of policies to resolve the contradiction of overcapacity. Issue overcapacity warnings in a timely manner.
Affected by the continued sharp decline in international oil prices, the global offshore engineering equipment market is in an obvious downward trend, and the utilization rate of various types of offshore engineering equipment has generally declined. According to statistics, in 2014, the global new orders for various types of offshore engineering equipment were US$41.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%, and the utilization rate of various types of offshore engineering equipment dropped by 1 to 2 percentage points. The Chinese offshore engineering equipment orders undertaken by enterprises generally have problems such as low prices, low down payment ratios, and the lack of leases by shipowners of some orders. In the current situation of plummeting oil prices and market downturn, the risk of abandoned orders has obviously increased.
In 2014, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) passed a number of resolutions and approved dozens of resolutions and circulars. Among them, the amendments to the International Code for the Construction and Equipment of Ships Carrying Liquefied Gases in Bulk (IGC Code); the Polar Code applicable to SOLAS ships; and the relevant research on improving the subdivision index of passenger ships will be mandatory in the next 2 to 3 years. In the next few years, the competition in the international shipping market will become more intense, and the importance of product design and research and development will become more prominent. The challenges facing my country's shipbuilding companies are even more severe.
In 2015, according to expert analysis, the U.S. economy is recovering slowly, the European economy continues to be sluggish, the Japanese economy continues to decline, the Chinese economy has entered a new normal, and the global economic recovery is still difficult. At the same time, the world's bulk cargo, especially crude oil prices, have fallen sharply, which has brought about new changes in the global energy supply and demand pattern. Against this background, the overcapacity situation in the shipping market will not improve, and freight levels will remain low; investment in offshore oil and gas exploration and development has slowed down significantly, and the operating market situation has deteriorated. If there are no major changes in the economic situation, the transaction volume of new ships in 2015 may drop to the level of 80 million deadweight tons, and the price trend of new ships will be weak, with a slight decline. The completion volume of new ships will be around 110 million deadweight tons, and the number of orders on hand will drop to the level of 282 million deadweight tons. The global offshore engineering equipment market demand will further shrink, and the transaction value will be less than 40 billion US dollars.
It is expected that in 2015, the main economic indicators of my country's shipbuilding industry will continue to maintain steady growth, and the total number of new orders may decline slightly, but the market share is expected to maintain the current level. According to statistics on handheld orders, shipbuilding completion is higher than the 2014 level, reaching about 43 million deadweight tons, and the number of handheld orders will remain at about 130 million deadweight tons.
In 2014, the downward pressure on my country's economic development was great, and the pain of structural adjustment appeared. To this end, the government issued a number of policies to ensure steady economic and social development, such as "Several Opinions on Promoting the Reform and Development of the Tourism Industry", "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Maritime Industry", "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020") and other documents. my country's shipping companies should study carefully, increase policy interpretation, and strive to explore relevant development opportunities. At the same time, Our country's shipbuilding companies must also firmly seize the new opportunities brought by the "Belt and Road" construction, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and Asia-Pacific connectivity, actively explore new paths and new models that suit their own development needs, constantly seek new economic growth points and driving forces, and make greater contributions to building a maritime power and realizing the Chinese dream.
my country's shipping companies should speed up structural adjustment, take multiple measures, and vigorously develop the producer service industry. The first is to make full use of modern information technologies such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things, Beidou navigation and geographical information, to establish an informatized and intelligent complete logistics service system for unified procurement, warehousing, and distribution, and to provide shipbuilding companies with accurate and efficient logistics services according to the production rhythm. The second is to speed up the construction of ship financing leasing service systems and strengthen cooperation with domestic and foreign commercial banks, insurance, trusts and other financial institutions. Expand financing space through multiple channels, enrich financial leasing methods, and use financial leasing for shipbuilding companies to develop international and domestic markets; the third is to establish a transformation from a "manufacturing enterprise" to a "manufacturing service enterprise", establish and improve the global after-sales service network and marketing network system, strengthen after-sales service to build a brand, and increase market share. Only by accelerating the development of the producer service industry can my country's shipbuilding industry better achieve structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and provide greater assistance to achieve the goal of becoming a shipbuilding power.
Resolving overcapacity in the shipping industry can, on the one hand, alleviate the severe market pressure currently faced by my country's shipbuilding industry, accelerate the pace of enterprise transformation and upgrading, and increase industrial concentration; on the other hand, it can also better optimize the industrial structure and product structure of my country's shipbuilding industry and improve international competitiveness. Therefore, we must continue to adhere to the requirements of "digest a batch, transfer a batch, integrate a batch, and eliminate a batch" and further increase efforts. We must play the role of a "visible hand" and increase policy publicity. Establish and improve the assessment and evaluation system for resolving excess production capacity, and introduce more targeted and operable rules in terms of revision of industry access conditions, restructuring of corporate credit support and fiscal and taxation policies, and excess production capacity exit mechanism.
In the past two years, many shipping companies in my country have developed offshore engineering equipment production in order to get rid of the impact of the international financial crisis and its lagging effects. Many companies have transformed offshore engineering production in order to resolve shipbuilding capacity. In the face of market risks and production capacity risks in offshore engineering equipment, the entire industry must conscientiously implement the "Ocean Engineering Equipment (Platform Category) Industry Standards and Conditions", and each offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprise must strengthen the management and risk prevention of shipowners, products, technology, quality, financing, services and other aspects. Enterprises must be cautious when entering the field of offshore engineering equipment.
Our country is in the process of transforming from a major shipbuilding country to a powerful shipbuilding country. Improving the localized shipping rate of shipbuilding products is not only an important symbol of a strong shipbuilding country, but also an inevitable requirement for the development of a strong shipbuilding country. The state actively encourages shipbuilding companies to carry out technological innovation and has introduced a number of incentive measures to create a good industrial development environment for shipbuilding companies. Each shipbuilding company must increase its product research and development efforts, and on the premise of ensuring product quality, Accelerate the pace of product upgrading; strengthen the cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the shipbuilding industry chain, deepen "industry-university-research-application" cooperation, and increase the localized shipping rate; establish a complete global after-sales service network, enhance the company's global service capabilities, and break the bottleneck of domestic shipbuilding companies participating in international market competition. Domestic shipbuilding companies and shipowners must further increase support and try their best to select domestic shipping products with quality and performance that meet the requirements, and contribute to increasing the localized shipping rate of shipbuilding products.
In recent years, intelligent manufacturing has developed rapidly, and "Industry 4.0" is booming around the world. The robot and intelligent equipment industry has received more and more widespread attention. In order to adapt to the new trend formed by the international industrial revolution, the manufacturing industry is developing toward service-oriented, high-end, intelligent, networked, and green. The development of intelligent manufacturing in China's shipbuilding industry is an inevitable choice for building a strong shipbuilding country. It will improve production efficiency, ensure product quality, reduce production costs, and promote transformation and upgrading of my country's shipbuilding industry. Improving international competitiveness is of important strategic significance. We must stand at a strategic level, strengthen research on intelligent manufacturing technology in the shipbuilding industry, accelerate the process of intelligent shipbuilding, and welcome the arrival of the intelligent era in the shipbuilding industry.
In 2014, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, and the National Development and Reform Commission co-sponsored five centralized trainings on the new international shipbuilding conventions, new norms, and new standards across the country, and the training results were a complete success. In 2015, relevant departments should carry out targeted preparations based on understanding the newly introduced rules, and continue to increase training work across the country, so that our country's shipbuilding companies can calmly respond when the requirements of the convention are implemented.