Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10175.html
2016 is the first year of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for the shipbuilding industry. It is also a critical year for the global shipbuilding industry to undergo deep adjustments and for my country's shipbuilding industry to enter a stage of comprehensive strengthening. Under the care of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and under the guidance of relevant national departments, my country's shipbuilding industry conscientiously implements the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and promptly implements the five major tasks of "three reductions, one reduction and one supplement". It has achieved continuous improvement in industrial concentration, gradual improvement in scientific and technological innovation capabilities, and effective elimination of excess production capacity. The shortcomings in the development of the industry have been made up, cost reduction and efficiency improvement have been solidly advanced, international production capacity cooperation has been steadily carried out, and the status of a major shipbuilding country has been further consolidated. However, affected by the continued in-depth adjustment of the international shipbuilding market, my country's backbone shipping companies have become more competitive in accepting orders, the delivery of completed ships has become more difficult, and the review of financing loans has become more stringent. The industry-wide order book continues to decline, and profitability has dropped significantly. The shipbuilding industry is facing a more severe situation.
In 2016, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 35.32 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; the number of new ship orders received was 21.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.6%; as of the end of December 2016, the number of ship orders in hand was 99.61 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. The national shipbuilding completion volume of export ships, and the number of new orders, The proportions of held orders were 94.7%, 77.2%, and 92.6% respectively.
From January to November 2016, there were 1,459 large-scale shipbuilding industry enterprises nationwide, achieving main business income of 697.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 342.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; the ship supporting industry was 93.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; the ship repair industry was 18.47 billion yuan, A year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; offshore engineering special equipment manufacturing was 67.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%.
The total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 14.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 12.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; the ship supporting industry was 5.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; the ship repair industry was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.2%; and the marine engineering special equipment manufacturing loss was 4.19 billion yuan.
From January to November 2016, my country's ship exports were US$21.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Among my country's exports of ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$12.25 billion, accounting for 57% of total exports. my country's ship products are exported to more than 160 countries and regions, and Asia remains the main region for my country's ship exports. The value of my country's ship exports to Asia was US$10.09 billion, accounting for 47% of total exports; the value of ship exports to Europe was US$4.01 billion, accounting for 21%; the value of ship exports to Latin America was US$1.54 billion, accounting for 7.2%.
In 2016, the international shipping market continued to undergo profound adjustments, with global new ship trading volume falling sharply by 67% year-on-year. At the end of the year, global shipbuilding companies' order book on hand fell 25% compared with the end of 2015. my country's shipbuilding companies overcame the difficulties caused by the market downturn and bucked the trend to grab orders. Shipbuilding completion volume, new ship order volume and hand-held order volume accounted for 35.6%, 65.2% and 43.9% of the global market respectively, continuing to remain at the forefront of the world. Under the guidance of market mechanisms and industrial policies, the advantages of key enterprises have continued to expand. The top 10 companies in terms of shipbuilding completion volume accounted for 56.9% of the country's total, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from 2015. The top 10 companies in terms of new orders accounted for 74.7% of the country's total, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from 2015. The industrial concentration has further improved.
In 2016, shipping companies continued to increase their efforts in scientific and technological innovation, and the product structure continued to be optimized. A number of high-tech, high value-added first-class ships were successfully developed and delivered to shipowners, gaining market favor. 38.8 thousand tons of duplex stainless steel chemical tankers, 15 thousand tons of dual-fuel chemical tankers, liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered 4,000-space car ro-ro ships, 37.5 The world's first-ever ships such as thousand cubic meter ethylene carriers and polar heavy-duty deck carriers were delivered. 400 thousand tons very large ore carriers (VLOC), 85 thousand cubic meters ethane carriers, 20 thousand tons chemical tankers and multi-type feeder container ships received batch orders. The construction of 20 thousand TEU container ships started, and projects such as luxury cruise ships and 10 thousand parking space car roll-off ships were steadily advanced.
In 2016, under the guidance of industrial policies, the shipbuilding industry vigorously promoted supply-side structural reform and resolutely implemented the key tasks of resolving overcapacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Measures for the Supervision and Management of Standardized Enterprises in the Shipbuilding Industry" to conduct dynamic management of regulated companies. The China Shipbuilding Industry Association released the China Shipbuilding Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index; key shipbuilding companies actively responded to market changes, used their own advantages to expand non-shipping fields, and resolved overcapacity. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has made breakthroughs in projects such as the Three Gorges Ship Lift; the merger and reorganization of state-owned enterprises has taken substantial steps, China Ocean Shipping Group has integrated 13 large shipyards and more than 20 supporting service companies to establish COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation Large Ships and Shandong Shipbuilding, Wuchang and Beizhou Shipbuilding, Sail and Torch Energy, Chongqing Hongjiang and Chongyue have steadily advanced their integration and reorganization; the shipbuilding company affiliated to China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, Guangzhou Shipyard International, Major shipbuilding and repairing companies such as CSSC Chengxi have taken the initiative to reduce existing production capacity. Hudong-Zhonghua, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, Huangpu Wenchong and other companies have proposed action plans for production capacity control and asset disposal. In addition, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian and other places have taken the initiative to reduce and resolve excess production capacity through production capacity replacement, relocation from cities to parks, transformation and upgrading, etc.
In 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Capacity of the Ship Supporting Industry (2016~2020)" to encourage enterprises to improve their ship equipment supporting capabilities and levels. Some ship supporting equipment and systems have made important breakthroughs, and the shortcomings in industry development have been made up. CSSC's 6EX340EF self-owned brand two-stroke low-speed diesel engine has filled the gap, and the heavy-tooth low-speed diesel engine gearbox GCS1000 has been successfully developed for the first time in China. The Shanghai Marine Diesel Engine Research Institute’s independent intellectual property low-speed engine low-pressure selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system obtained the type approval certificate. Dalian Huarui undertook batch orders for the world’s longest stroke and largest single weight marine crankshaft, and its own brand anchor winches, hatch covers, Baker rudders and other deck machinery were shipped in batches. New progress has been made in the integration of industry and academia, and enterprises have increased their investment in science and technology. China’s Deep Sea Marine Engineering Equipment Technology Industry Alliance, as well as China’s Marine Materials Technology Innovation Alliance and Ship Marine Engineering, The New Materials Industry Alliance was established. The technology centers of two companies, including Nantong COSCO Kawasaki and Yaxing Anchor Chain, were recognized as national-level enterprise technology centers. As of the end of 2016, the total number of national-level enterprise technology centers in the shipbuilding industry reached 27, and 5 units including the Shanghai Ship Technology Research Institute became the technical support units of the national engineering laboratory.
(5) Solidly promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and steadily carry out intelligent manufacturing. In 2016, in the face of fierce market competition, key shipbuilding companies vigorously promoted lean production models, strengthened cost control, and strived to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, Jinling Shipyard and other units closely followed the steel market trends and achieved low-level procurement, with a comprehensive cost of only 2,800 yuan/ton; Yantai CIMC Raffles took advantage of its international advantages and integrated the global supply chain to reduce procurement costs by about 20%. million US dollars; Nantong COSCO Heavy Industry has turned losses into profits by optimizing marketing resources, increasing actual output capacity, and promoting management improvements; Nantong COSCO Kawasaki has reduced its labor force by more than 60% through automated bar processing production lines, and increased production efficiency by 3x; DSIC has developed automated processing technology, and the utilization rates of automatic welding for small groups and medium/large groups have reached 76% and 50% respectively; Jinhai Heavy Industry has implemented a "machine substitution" project, reducing the labor force by more than 20%. The production efficiency of key processes has increased by 50% and the overall cost has been reduced by nearly 40%. my country's shipbuilding companies have steadily carried out intelligent manufacturing projects based on their own characteristics and local conditions. Jiangsu Automation Research Institute's independent intellectual property ship manufacturing multi-functional cabin welding robot has officially started work, Hudong-Zhonghua LNG ship segmented construction digital workshop, DSIC ship segmented manufacturing digital workshop, Zhenhua Heavy Industry offshore drilling platform equipment manufacturing intelligent welding workshop and other projects are progressing steadily.
In 2016, the China Shipping Association Ship Repair Branch implemented the supply-side structural reform requirements, improved the management standards and technical standards of the ship repair industry, edited and released the "China Ship Repair Price Guidelines (2016 Edition)", filled the gaps in new ship types, improved the specifications of large ships, emphasized safety and environmental protection investment, fully reflected the requirements of national safety and environmental protection policies for the ship repair industry in recent years, and explored the establishment of a linkage mechanism between ship repair prices and resource prices; organized multiple meetings to vigorously promote green ship repair. Establish an ultra-high-pressure water technology alliance for the ship repair industry to promote intelligent painting robots to achieve green dock repairs, improve production efficiency, reduce labor and management costs, and enhance the competitiveness of my country's ship repair industry.
In 2016, my country’s shipbuilding companies deeply implemented the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, actively promoted international cooperation in production capacity and equipment manufacturing, and intensified the implementation of “bringing in and going out”. CSSC, together with Italian Fincantieri Group and other companies, jointly promoted large-scale luxury cruise construction projects; China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation Marine Equipment Co., Ltd. 5 Trillion-watt offshore wind turbine equipment has been successfully deployed in the British market; COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry has completed the acquisition of the Piraeus Shipyard in Greece; the Shanghai Marine Diesel Engine Research Institute has officially started construction on the Pakistan Power Plant Coal and Electricity Terminal General Contracting Project (EPC). The basic technology research capabilities of the shipbuilding industry have been rapidly improved, and the formulation and voice of international standards have been improved. The China Shipbuilding Association has actively promoted the active Alliance of Shipbuilding Experts (ASEF) to apply for observer status in the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Shanghai Ship Research and Design Institute's Chinese method for dual-fuel ship EEDI has finally been fully recognized and approved by IMO, and two standards, "China Shipbuilding Quality Standards" and "China Ship Repair Quality Standards", have been released and implemented in Chinese and English.
In 2016, the effective demand in the new ship market was seriously insufficient, and it became increasingly difficult for shipbuilding companies to receive orders. The global shipbuilding companies that received new ship orders accounted for only 34% of the world's active shipbuilding companies, and my country's new shipbuilding companies that received new orders accounted for 41% of the domestic active shipbuilding companies. Most shipbuilding companies are still in a state of difficulty finding orders, with a serious shortage of orders, the order book on hand continues to decline, and the number of slipway (dock) shorts is increasing day by day. Calculated based on the orders on hand and actual production capacity at the end of the year, The order guarantee coefficient of my country's shipbuilding companies has dropped to the current 1.5 years. There is an obvious shortage of ships started, and corporate production continues to face severe challenges.
Affected by the continued downturn in the shipping market, the operating performance of some shipowners continues to deteriorate, and shipbuilding difficulties in ship delivery have become increasingly obvious. According to statistics, as of the end of 2016, due to factors such as shipowner changes to contracts, delayed delivery, and order cancellations, the on-schedule delivery rate of Chinese shipbuilding companies was only 80%. The production plan could not be completed on time, and the production schedule was difficult to effectively manage. Currently, the offshore engineering equipment market is extremely sluggish, and the utilization rate of the offshore engineering equipment operation market has declined sharply. Shipowners have delayed the delivery of a large number of orders, or even abandoned or canceled orders. The systemic risks of orders in hand have gradually increased, which has become a top priority that my country's offshore engineering equipment industry must face.
In recent years, relevant national ministries and commissions have issued a number of guidance on financial support for the shipbuilding industry, guiding banking financial institutions and others to provide credit support to high-quality shipbuilding companies to help promising companies tide over difficulties. However, affected by factors such as the continued downturn in the international market and the bankruptcy and reorganization of some companies, financial institutions have continued to tighten credit policies for the shipbuilding industry. The gap in the total amount of shipbuilding funds remains serious. Financing costs for shipbuilding companies have remained high. Advance funds for companies have increased significantly, and cash flow has become increasingly tight. The financial pressure on key shipbuilding companies has affected their normal production and operations, and their international competitiveness continues to decline.
Affected by factors such as the continued decline in new ship prices, sharp rise in raw material costs, frequent changes in orders by shipowners, insufficient construction by shipbuilding companies, and high financing costs, the profitability of my country's shipping companies has dropped significantly. At the end of 2016, the operating profit margin of key monitoring companies was only 0.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from 2015. The number of loss-making companies and the amount of losses have increased, and corporate profitability has dropped significantly. According to statistics, in 2016 A total of 59% of enterprises in my country have not received new ship orders, and the collapse of small and medium-sized shipbuilding enterprises has spread to large and backbone shipbuilding enterprises. my country's backbone medium and large shipbuilding enterprises such as Jiangsu Rongsheng, Sainty Shipbuilding, Nantong Mingde, Zhejiang Zhenghe, and Zhejiang Shipbuilding have been deeply affected. Production and operation have almost stagnated, and even entered bankruptcy and reorganization procedures. my country's major shipbuilding enterprises are facing great pressure to survive, and the stable and healthy development of the industry is facing huge challenges.
In 2016, affected by the continued decline in the shipbuilding and offshore equipment market, shipbuilding supporting companies faced greater operating pressure. According to statistics, my country's low-speed diesel engines were completed at 301 units/5.1 million kilowatts, with the number of units and power falling by 22.2% and 8.8% respectively year-on-year. The output of major supporting equipment such as marine crankshafts, deck machinery, and marine generators also declined. The sharp shrinkage of new orders has seriously affected the company's subsequent production arrangements. The prices of some products have been reissued or orders have been delayed or withdrawn, which has caused difficulties for companies to withdraw their payment, and the operating risks of ship supporting companies have continued to intensify.
The world's economic recovery is slow, the second-hand ship (including offshore equipment) market is large, and the situation of ship operating capacity and shipbuilding overcapacity is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short term. It is expected that the new shipbuilding market situation will not improve significantly in 2017. The global new ship transaction volume is 30 million to 40 million deadweight tons, and the offshore engineering equipment transaction volume is about 10 billion US dollars. However, new ship prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize. Affected by the large-scale delivery of on-hand orders, oil tankers, The overall market for the three mainstream ship types of bulk carriers and large container ships will remain at a low level, and market segments such as chemical tankers, feeder box ships, ro-ro ships and luxury cruise ships will continue to remain active. International crude oil prices will still hover at low levels, the drilling equipment market will continue to be sluggish, the production equipment market is expected to grow slightly, and the offshore engineering equipment market is unlikely to improve significantly.
It is expected that in 2017, the main economic indicators of my country's shipbuilding industry are expected to stop falling and stabilize. The shipbuilding completion volume will be roughly the same as in 2016. The total number of new orders may decline, and the number of orders on hand at the end of the year will be less than 90 million deadweight tons.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, issued the "Action Plan for Deepening Structural Adjustment and Accelerating Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2016-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan") on the basis of conducting in-depth research and fully listening to relevant opinions. The "Action Plan" is a programmatic document to guide the development of the shipbuilding industry during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. We must study it in depth and implement it conscientiously. Focusing closely on the strategic goals of "Made in China 2025" and building a maritime power, with innovative development and industrial upgrading as the core, and the deep integration of manufacturing technology and information technology as an important starting point, we will vigorously promote supply-side structural reform, stabilize growth, cut overcapacity, make up for shortcomings, reduce costs, adjust structure, improve quality, strengthen brands, and comprehensively enhance the international competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities of the industry.
At present, the phenomenon of shipowners changing orders and canceling orders has increased significantly. It is recommended that shipbuilding companies take the initiative to communicate with shipowners, increase production management, improve production plan management levels, strengthen risk management awareness, and strive to minimize adverse effects. Companies should also improve product quality control capabilities and product quality levels to avoid difficulties in delivering orders due to product quality problems. At the same time, companies should cultivate and promote the craftsmanship of excellence, comprehensively promote ship product quality upgrades, and enhance their own product brand image. Create a number of internationally renowned brands with advanced technology, economical cost, efficient construction, excellent quality and high credibility.
At present, the shipbuilding market continues to be sluggish, new international regulations are constantly being introduced, and shipowners' requirements are becoming more stringent. Shipbuilding companies should continue to strengthen management, reduce costs and increase efficiency, follow technological development trends, take intelligent manufacturing as the main direction to improve their level, consolidate the foundation of lean shipbuilding, increase the integration of informatization and industrialization, carry out intelligent workshop construction in a planned manner, optimize and upgrade product structure, create an efficient shipbuilding system, and increase the introduction and training of technical talents. Continuously improve the competitiveness of enterprises.
The downturn in the shipping market and the difficulty in finding an order have drained the capabilities of many enterprises. Moderate diversification of operations and optimization of business structure are undoubtedly important measures to reduce market risks and ease production pressure. Strong enterprises should actively organize their spare forces, conduct in-depth market surveys, and strive to develop emerging industries, military-civilian integration industries and producer services, etc., from a single product to related diversification, from the marine market to the land market, from product marketing to logistics value-added, and adjust their own industry and product structure.