Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/16532.html
In the first half of 2021, the international shipping market picked up, container shipping demand was strong, and the global new shipbuilding market was active. my country's three major shipbuilding indicators achieved significant growth, and its international market share remained leading. The revenue and exports of the shipbuilding industry increased year-on-year. However, affected by the sharp rise in prices of raw materials such as steel, corporate profitability has been weakened, especially the profits of shipbuilding companies have dropped significantly. The stable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry still faces severe challenges.
In the first half of 2021, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 20.92 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%; the number of new ship orders received was 38.24 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 206.8%. As of the end of June, the number of ship orders on hand was 86.6 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and an increase of 21.8% over the end of 2020.
The number of export ships completed nationwide was 19.75 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; the number of export ship orders accepted was 34.15 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 197.8%; at the end of June, the number of export ship orders in hand was 77.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Export ships accounted for 94.4%, 89.3% and 89% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders and orders held respectively.
From January to May 2021, there were 1,066 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size across the country, achieving main business income of 189.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises 103.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%; ship supporting enterprises 42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; ship repair enterprises 14.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; ship modification enterprises 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises 25.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%; navigation equipment and other floating device manufacturing enterprises 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.
During the same period, the total profit of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size was 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. Among them, shipbuilding companies were 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.0%; ship supporting companies were 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; ship repair companies were 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%; ship modification companies were 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies were 420 million yuan, The loss decreased by 780 million yuan year-on-year; the manufacturing enterprises of navigation equipment and other floating devices lost 610 thousand yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.3%.
From January to May 2021, my country exported a total of 2,189 ships of various types, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, accounting for 8.39 billion US dollars in US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of 79.4%. Among them, bulk carriers accounted for 37.1%. Tankers accounted for 21.8%; container ships accounted for 20.5%.
In March this year, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of 2035 Long-term Goals" was officially released, clearly proposing to promote the innovative development of the ship and marine engineering equipment industry, consolidate the competitiveness of the entire industry chain in the ship field, and promote the research and development applications of cruise ships, large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships and deep-sea oil and gas production platforms. Support research in cutting-edge scientific and technological fields such as deep sea and polar exploration, and carry out the construction of the second phase of the Jiaolong sea exploration and the second phase of the Xuelong exploration. Relevant national departments and local governments are studying and formulating relevant special plans, implementing relevant support policies and supporting measures, and planning for the high-quality development of the shipbuilding industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan".
In the first half of the year, the global new shipbuilding transaction volume reached 74.97 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 222%. my country's new ship orders accounted for 51% of the global total, and the average monthly order volume reached 6.37 million deadweight tons, which was 1.8x the shipbuilding completion volume in the same period, a new high since the financial crisis. Chinese shipping companies seized the opportunity of the global container ship market shortage, It has undertaken a total of 53 orders for ultra-large container ships of 15,000TEU and above, accounting for 57% of the world's total. my country continues to maintain its dominant position in the bulk carrier market and has undertaken a total of 16.674 million deadweight bulk carriers, accounting for 91% of the global total.
In the first half of the year, my country's international market share of the three major shipbuilding indicators remained at more than 40%. Shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders on hand accounted for 44.9%, 51.0%, and 45.8% of the world total in terms of deadweight tonnage respectively; industry concentration continued to increase, and the top 10 companies in shipbuilding completions accounted for 75.7% of the country's total, compared with 2020 The top 10 companies in terms of new ship orders accounted for 79.5% of the country, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from the end of 2020; the top 10 companies in hand-held ship orders accounted for 71.4% of the country, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the end of 2020. The competitiveness of leading companies has further improved, with 6, 6 and 6 companies respectively entering the top 10 in the world for shipbuilding completion volume, new orders and hand-held orders.
In the first half of the year, my country continued to make new breakthroughs in the field of R&D and construction of high-tech ships and marine engineering equipment, and received batch orders for multiple types of green-powered ships. 23,000TEU dual-fuel powered container ships were delivered in batches, the first 174,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), the world's most advanced civilian hospital ship, the world's largest dedicated train transport ship, and ultra-large intelligent self-propelled cutter suction dredgers and other high-end marine engineering products were delivered. The maximum diving depth of "Wukong" reached 7,709 meters, setting a new record for the diving depth of my country's unmanned unmanned submersibles. Green power ships such as 210,000-ton LNG-powered bulk carriers, dual-fuel stainless steel chemical tankers, 7,000-car dual-fuel car carriers, 150,000-ton Suez-type ammonia fuel reserve oil tankers, and methanol-powered dual-fuel MR tankers have been accepted in batches.
In the first half of the year, my country has made new progress in the development of marine supporting products, and some projects have been shipped in batches. Projects and products such as the world's smallest bore marine low-speed dual-fuel (Otto cycle) engine, B-type cargo tank cargo containment system, ultra-large underwater hydraulic windlass, gas supply system (FGSS), R6-level marine mooring chain, etc. have been industrialized; core second-wheel accessories such as superchargers, electronic control systems, and oil mist detectors have been verified as complete machines. Conditions have been met for shipment application. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, some foreign supporting products cannot arrive at the factory on time. In order to ensure the timely delivery of ships under construction and offshore engineering equipment, domestic ship supporting companies and final assembly companies actively cooperate with product substitution, installation and commissioning, ensuring the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
In the first half of the year, the prices of iron ore, copper, aluminum and other bulk commodities rose rapidly, and the market price of marine materials hit a new high in the past ten years. The prices of domestic 6mm shipbuilding plates and 20mm shipbuilding plates once reached 7590 yuan/ton and 7120 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% and 79.3%. Marine cables once rose to 76900 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%. Recently, Steel prices have fallen back, but still remain at a high of 6,000 yuan/ton. Based on this price, the raw material procurement costs of my country's shipbuilding companies will increase by more than 40% compared with 2020. It is extremely challenging for most shipbuilding companies to maintain profitability with ship orders in hand. As of the end of May, the total profit of shipbuilding companies was only 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.0%. There are obvious signs that increasing production does not increase profits.
In recent years, affected by the rapid development of urban infrastructure construction and the wind power industry, shipbuilding companies in coastal areas have suffered a serious loss of skilled welders, machining and other workers. At the same time, the express delivery industry has also attracted a group of shipbuilding company employees. Companies can only recruit front-line workers in remote areas such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Gansu. The shortage of young labor directly causes the age structure of shipyard workers to be older, and there are hidden dangers for the sustainable development of the industry. In addition, due to the low long-term efficiency of shipbuilding companies, it is difficult to attract outstanding college graduates. Many graduates majoring in shipbuilding and ocean engineering are unwilling to work in shipbuilding companies. Currently, shipbuilding companies are facing a shortage of both outstanding technical talents and skilled workers that may become increasingly serious.
In the first half of the year, affected by factors such as the uneven recovery of the global economy and changes in Federal Reserve policy, the two-way fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar increased. From the beginning of this year to the end of June, the two-way fluctuations of the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar reached 3.25%. The rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not only increased the operating risks of enterprises, but also affected the international competitiveness of shipping companies. Currently, my country's backbone shipping companies have relatively full orders, and in order to avoid forward exchange rate risks, they have begun to control the pace of order receipts. Rapid short-term fluctuations in exchange rates, This has put tremendous pressure on shipping companies to make decisions about accepting new ship orders and purchasing supporting materials.
In the first half of the year, with the improvement of COVID-19 vaccine supply and the impact of fiscal stimulus policies, the global economy rebounded slightly. However, the domestic and international environment is still complicated, and there are still many uncertain and unstable factors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economic growth rate will be about 6% in 2021. The global economic recovery will drive the recovery of international seaborne trade, and the growth rate of seaborne trade is expected to exceed 4% throughout the year.
In the second half of the year, the international shipping market will still maintain a certain degree of enthusiasm, but the number of new ship orders will fall back compared to the first half of the year. It is expected that global new ship orders will exceed 100 million deadweight tons in 2021 and are expected to reach the level of 120 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be around 90 million deadweight tons, and the number of ship orders will rise to nearly 200 million deadweight tons by the end of the year. my country's new ship order volume is expected to reach 50 million deadweight tons. It is estimated that approximately 36 million deadweight tons of ships will be completed and delivered throughout the year, and the number of orders on hand will rise to approximately 87 million deadweight tons.
In recent years, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has gradually accelerated its legislation on environmental protection, especially under the framework of the greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy. Indicators such as the existing ship energy efficiency index (EEXI) and annual operating carbon intensity index (CII) have also clarified the effective timetable, and more new requirements will be introduced one after another. At the same time, my country's "carbon peak, carbon neutral" goal has put forward new requirements for the green development of the shipbuilding industry. my country's shipbuilding companies should actively implement the concept of green development, Actively carry out the research and development and application of green ship products and green manufacturing technologies, seize new market opportunities brought by new international maritime regulations, and make due contributions to the early realization of the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".
In the first half of the year, the excessive rise in raw material prices will not only have a great impact on my country's shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry, but also severely impact various industries in my country's manufacturing field. The current inversion of profit margins in my country's high-tech, high value-added manufacturing industries and raw material manufacturing industries will undermine the confidence of enterprises in future development, especially at this stage when the international political and economic situation is relatively severe. It is recommended that relevant government departments should continue to attach great importance to this issue and continue to use macro-control measures to control the irrational rise in raw material prices. Protect the healthy and sustainable development of my country’s shipbuilding industry.
At present, labor and employment issues have seriously affected the healthy development of the industry. Relevant government departments and shipping companies should attach great importance to it and take active and effective measures. On the one hand, shipbuilding companies should strengthen the management of the labor force, explore and reform the existing labor model, and cultivate a stable and efficient labor force by appropriately increasing the number of workers, improving worker treatment, improving the working environment, and improving the worker skills training system. On the other hand, classified policies should be implemented based on the existing foundation and conditions of the enterprise to solidly improve production efficiency. Steadily develop automated tooling, improve the level of informatization and promote the application of intelligent manufacturing-related technologies to alleviate the current tense employment situation. In addition, shipping companies should increase cooperation with shipping colleges, improve the quality of education, strengthen the training of design and technical talents, and create a new mechanism for school-enterprise cooperation.