Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10205.html
In the first half of 2014, the pace of structural adjustment in the ship market accelerated. Some ship owners were active in ordering ships at the right time, and the global new ship transaction volume remained high. Chinese shipbuilding companies achieved good operating results by relying on their advantages of undertaking bulk carriers. However, due to the weak growth of the world economy, the difficulty of overcapacity, operating difficulties of shipping companies and other factors, the ship market transactions have a clear downward trend, the upward trend of new ship prices has been hindered, and the market outlook is not optimistic. China's shipbuilding industry still faces many difficulties and challenges.
From January to June, the country's shipbuilding completed 17.43 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. New ship orders were 40.8 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.2%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders in hand was 152.06 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, and an increase of 16.1% from the end of 2013.
(2) Analysis of the total output value of key monitoring enterprises
From January to June, the total industrial output value of 87 key monitoring companies in the shipbuilding industry was 186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Among them, shipbuilding companies were 74.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%; ship supporting companies were 14.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; ship repair companies were 6.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%.
From January to May, there were 1,485 large-scale shipbuilding industry enterprises across the country, achieving main business income of 239.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Among them, shipbuilding companies were 147.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; ship supporting companies were 41.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%; ship repair companies were 10.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%.
From January to May, the total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 9.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises were 5.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; ship supporting enterprises were 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; ship repair enterprises were 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.6%.
From January to June, 87 key monitoring companies achieved main business income of 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; the total profit was affected by the large losses of individual companies, and was only 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4%.
From January to June, the country completed 15.4 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%; the export ship orders received were 38.35 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 82.3%; at the end of June, the number of export ship orders in hand was 143.7 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 51%. Export ships accounted for 88.4% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 94% and 94.5%.
From January to May, my country's ship exports reached US$10.72 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. Among my country's exports of ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$6.84 billion, accounting for 63.8% of total exports. my country's ship products are exported to 156 countries and regions, of which the export value of ships to Asia is US$5.97 billion, accounting for 55.7%.
(1) The state attaches great importance to the shipbuilding industry and supports the accelerated implementation of policies
To implement the spirit of the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)" issued by the State Council, relevant national departments have strengthened investigations and research to promote policy implementation. Encourage the early scrapping and renewal of old transport ships, support administrative law enforcement, official ship construction and fishing vessel renewal, encourage ship buyer credit business, increase credit financing support and innovative financial support, strengthen corporate technological progress, and control new production capacity. Policies to support the adjustment of production capacity structure are advanced in an orderly manner as planned. Documents such as the "Implementation Plan for Scrapping and Updating Old Transport Ships and Single-hull Oil Tankers", "High-tech Ship Scientific Research Project Guidelines (2014)", "Ocean Engineering Equipment Scientific Research Project Guidelines (2014)" have been released; training on new international shipbuilding norms, new rules, and new standards, and the review of "shipping industry normative conditions" have been fully launched.
(2) The increase in ship price index was hindered, while steel prices remained stable but declined.
In 2014, two important indicators that affect the profitability of shipbuilding companies - the ship price index and steel prices - showed different trends. The Clarkson new ship price index continued to rise for 12 consecutive months from 126 points in May 2013 to 140 points in June of May 2014. Some new ship prices have increased by 20% to 30% compared with last year's low, which has improved the profitability of shipyards to a certain extent, but the increase in the first half of this year is generally only about 5%. Especially in June, compared with May, the upward trend was hindered, and some ship prices fell slightly. At the same time, steel prices were affected by the overcapacity of steel mills and have remained at a low level of 4,000 yuan/ton since the beginning of this year. In June, the price of 20 mm steel plates was only 3,843 yuan/ton. The stable and declining steel costs will also help shipbuilding companies maintain profitability.
(3) Shipbuilding completion volume continues to decline, and the number of new orders continues to increase year-on-year
In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding completion volume continued to decline, with a total of 17.43 million deadweight tons completed and delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. The main reasons are: the transaction volume in 2011 and 2012 was small, the shipping market was sluggish, and shipowners were not willing to take over ships. At the same time, my country's key shipbuilding companies have strengthened the research and development of energy-saving and environmentally friendly mainstream ships and high-tech ships based on market demand, optimized and upgraded, and given full play to the competitive advantages of bulk carriers. In the first half of this year, it received new ship orders of 40.8 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.2%, and continued to maintain its No. 1 position in the world.
(4) The proportion of offshore engineering orders received remains the first, and the global development trend is not optimistic.
In the first half of the year, my country undertook 81 orders for various types of offshore engineering equipment, including 11 jack-up drilling platforms, 3 semi-submersible drilling platforms, 3 drilling ships, 3 production platforms, and 59 offshore engineering auxiliary ships. The contract value was US$7.9 billion, and the world market share increased to 32%, ranking first in the world. However, the offshore engineering equipment market has entered a period of adjustment in the past two years after experiencing a boom of 3 to 4 years. In particular, the sales volume of jack-up drilling platforms has been declining significantly, which is detrimental to the development of my country's offshore equipment manufacturing industry, which mainly undertakes the construction of jack-up platforms. Efforts must be made to improve the competitiveness in the high-end offshore market.
(5) Strengthen the drive for technological innovation and accelerate the pace of structural transformation and upgrading
In 2014, key enterprises and research units continued to strengthen market demand guidance, strengthen the development of green and environmentally friendly mainstream ships and high-tech ships, and achieved new breakthroughs in product structure adjustment. They obtained a number of high-tech ship orders such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, ultra-large oil tankers, ultra-large container ships, large bulk carriers and liquefied ethylene gas (LEG) ships, stainless steel chemical tankers, and scientific research ships.
(6) Initial results have been achieved in resolving overcapacity
The shipping industry has conscientiously implemented the spirit of the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Resolving Serious Overcapacity Conflicts" and has resolved some excess production capacity by relying on spontaneous market regulation, resource adjustment and reorganization, enterprise conversion and transformation, and the implementation of various government policies and measures. Preliminary analysis shows that in the past year, the industry has resolved a total of approximately 10 million deadweight tons of ship manufacturing capacity of more than 50,000 tons.
(7) Financial institutions increase their efforts to support the development of the shipbuilding industry
Since the beginning of this year, various financial institutions have actively provided financial services to accelerate the structural adjustment of the shipbuilding industry and promote transformation and upgrading. On the premise of preventing credit risks, they have adopted differentiated treatment, supported and controlled, and increased targeted support for key shipbuilding companies to ensure reasonable funding needs for the development of the shipbuilding industry. The balance of loans to the shipbuilding industry from major commercial banks has increased significantly year-on-year. Various financial institutions have innovated financial products and services to control the financing costs of shipbuilding companies and expand financing channels by improving the efficiency of business feedback. Measures such as strengthening cooperation with leasing companies and supporting shipbuilding companies in expanding their business have effectively met the credit needs of shipbuilding companies.
(8) Ship supporting orders showed restorative growth
Affected by the increase in the number of ships started in the first half of the year, orders for ship supporting products have experienced a recovery. Statistics show that in the first half of the year, 6.76 million kilowatts of low- and medium-speed diesel engines were undertaken, with a power increase of 132% year-on-year. The output and order volume of anchor winches, superchargers, propellers, low-speed engine crankshafts and other products have increased year-on-year. In addition, through strengthening independent research and development, domestic offshore engineering equipment such as large towing machines, anchor winches, and platform lifting devices have increased year-on-year. Supporting equipment such as platform power stations and mooring chains can replace imports, and the localization rate of self-elevating platform supporting equipment is expected to reach 50% or even higher. Statistics show that from January to May, my country's shipbuilding supporting industry achieved a main business income of 41.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%.
(1) Difficulties in ship delivery, financing, profitability, and transformation are still prominent problems faced by many companies.
At present, the global shipping market is still sluggish, and shipowners are not very enthusiastic about taking over ships; new ship prices are at low levels, and the proportion of first-payments is not high; many companies have difficulty with financing guarantees, which affects ship delivery progress and loses new orders; it is difficult to transform shipyards, shipyards and other large-scale special facilities, and policies related to mergers and reorganizations have not been implemented, etc., resulting in ship delivery delays and a decrease in completions; shipbuilding financing costs have increased, and corporate profits have been difficult; corporate structure adjustment, transformation and upgrading tasks are arduous. The development of my country's shipbuilding industry still faces many difficulties and challenges.
(2) The situation of overcapacity and insufficient demand has not been fundamentally changed.
At present, the global shipping capacity reaches 1.69 billion deadweight tons, and the shipping volume in recent years is about 9.5 billion tons. The problem of overcapacity is outstanding. The world economy is recovering slowly, the Clarkson comprehensive freight index is still in the disadvantaged area of 10,000 to 15,000 US dollars per day, the Baltic dry bulk freight index (BDI) is less than 900 points, and shipowners are insufficient to build new ships. Analysts believe that in the next 2 to 3 years, The ship market demand is about 100 million deadweight tons, and due to the boom period of the shipbuilding market, the global shipbuilding production capacity has reached 200 million deadweight tons. In recent years, in the context of the downturn in the ship market and the difficulty in receiving orders for shipyards, some production capacity has withdrawn from the market, but the contradiction between overcapacity and insufficient demand is still prominent. This pattern is unlikely to be fundamentally changed soon. We must have a clear understanding of this.
(3) The difficult operating situation of shipbuilding companies has not been significantly changed.
From 2013 to the first half of this year, global new ship orders increased a lot, including 169 million deadweight tons in 2013 and 63.87 million deadweight tons in the first half of this year. On the surface, the orders have increased a lot, and many backbone shipyards in my country have scheduled their slipway (dock) plans until 2016. However, analysts believe that due to generally low ship prices, harsh prepayment conditions, and increased ship technical requirements, there are certain risks in ship delivery. Therefore, We must objectively analyze orders, prevent blind optimism, and deeply realize that the difficult situation of business operations has not fundamentally changed; we must comprehensively strengthen corporate management, work hard on internal skills, improve production efficiency, reduce costs and increase efficiency, strengthen risk management and control, strive to overcome difficulties, and achieve better results.
(4) Deep-seated problems in the shipbuilding industry have not been fundamentally solved
Although my country's shipbuilding industry has achieved rapid development, it has ranked first in the world in terms of shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders held for 4 consecutive years since 2010. However, a calm analysis shows that independent innovation capabilities are insufficient, production efficiency is not high, the development of supporting industries lags behind, strong enterprises urgently need to be cultivated, and deep-seated problems such as overcapacity contradictions still exist. Compared with the world's shipbuilding powers, there is a large gap, which puts us at a disadvantage in fierce international competition.
Since the second half of 2013, global economic growth has been improving moderately, but there are signs of weakening new momentum. Currently, the United States is gradually tapering off quantitative easing and is considering exiting; the Eurozone has insufficient investment spending and is facing the risk of deflation; the risk of global economic downturn is difficult to eliminate, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has twice lowered its growth forecast to 3.5% this year; geopolitical issues have increasingly become an unstable factor affecting the steady recovery of the world economy; and the Chinese economy has also entered a stage of medium-speed development. These factors have adversely affected the global shipping market.
In addition, the shipping market has overcapacity, the contradiction between supply and demand has never been fundamentally improved, and BDI is at a low level. With the release of new ship orders over the past year, the ship market will decline significantly in the second half of the year, and global new ship trading volume will show a trend of highs and lows. It is expected that global new ship trading volume will be 30 million to 40 million deadweight tons in the second half of the year, and the annual volume will be around 100 million deadweight tons; shipbuilding completion volume will continue to decline. The annual completion volume is around 95 million deadweight tons; the number of orders on hand is expected to remain at the level of the end of 2013. It is expected that my country's shipbuilding completion volume for the whole year will be about 40 million deadweight tons, and the number of new orders will exceed 60 million deadweight tons. The number of orders on hand at the end of the year is expected to remain around 160 million deadweight tons.
1. Correctly understand the current situation and difficulties faced by the shipbuilding industry. Each unit must study its own development strategy, business strategy, and corporate positioning based on the actual situation of the enterprise, vigorously promote reforms, and adopt comprehensive measures to enhance the vitality of enterprise development.
2. Picking up a good ship and delivering a good ship is the absolute principle for the development of an enterprise. All shipping companies, especially key shipbuilding companies, should make picking up a good ship and delivering a good ship a top priority. They should earnestly study the status of new ship orders and avoid blindly accepting ship orders that are not suitable for the company's production capacity; classify and study the status of existing orders to ensure the delivery of key ships. For ships with certain problems, they should strengthen communication with shipowners in a timely manner. Only by taking good ships and delivering good ships can the healthy, stable and sustainable development of the enterprise be ensured.
3. Accelerate the pace of enterprise structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. In the future, the shipbuilding industry will be in a period of stronger differentiation and intensified differentiation and restructuring. Some companies are becoming more and more active, and some companies will inevitably be eliminated by the market. The current government is further improving and promoting various measures to accelerate structural adjustment and promote transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry. We must seize the opportunity, accelerate the pace, and under the guidance of the government, play the main role of enterprises and comprehensively promote the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of each unit. Withstand the test and test of the market.