Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10163.html
2017, 《船舶工业深化结构调整加快转型升级行动计划 (2016～2020) 》和《海洋工程装备制造业持续健康发展行动计划 (2017～2020) 》正式发布. 《行动计划》明确了“十三五”期间船舶工业深化结构调整加快转型升级的总体要求, 重点任务和保障措施, 引导船舶企业健康平稳发展, 同时2017 也是国际船舶市场经过长时间调整后的回升之年. 我国船舶工业紧密围绕产业政策, 抓住市场回暖的有利时机, 在全行业的艰苦努力下, 取得了三大造船指标继续领先, 产品结构不断优化, 产业结构更加合理, 产融结合更加深入, 船配产业质量升级, 国际地位不断提升的良好业绩. 但受国际船舶市场深度调整的影响, “融资难”“交付难”“盈利难”等深层次问题依然存在, 船舶工业面临形势仍然严峻.
(1) Two of the three major shipbuilding indicators in the country increased and one dropped.
In 2017, the national shipbuilding industry completed 42.68 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%; the number of new ship orders received was 33.73 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%; at the end of December, the number of ship orders in hand was 87.23 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%.
In 2017, the country completed 39.44 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%; the export ship orders received were 28.13 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 72.9%; at the end of December, the number of export ship orders in hand was 78.68 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. Export ships accounted for 92.4% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 83.4% and 90.2%.
In 2017, my country's ship export value was US$22.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$13.98 billion, accounting for 61.5% of total exports. Ship products are exported to 184 countries and regions, still mainly in Asia. my country's ship export value to Asia is US$11.93 billion. Accounting for 52.5% of total exports; the value of ship exports to Europe was US$4.41 billion, accounting for 19.4%; the value of ship exports to Oceania was US$2.93 billion, accounting for 12.9%.
(3) The economic benefits of the shipping industry have declined.
In 2017, there were 1,410 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, with main business income of 619.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 285.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the ship supporting industry was 83.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; the ship repair industry was 21.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%; and the marine engineering special equipment manufacturing industry was 43.08 billion yuan. billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%.
The total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 14.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 7.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%; the ship supporting industry was 5.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; the ship repair industry was 770 million yuan, turning losses into profits; the marine engineering special equipment manufacturing industry was 940 million yuan, turning losses into profits.
(1) Ranking first in international market share, industry concentration continues to increase
In 2017, the international shipping market bottomed out and the new ship market remained active. my country's shipbuilding companies seized the favorable opportunity of market recovery and actively explored the market. The annual shipbuilding completion volume, new ship order volume and handheld order volume accounted for 41.9%, 45.5% and 44.6% of the global market respectively. The international market share of the three major shipbuilding indicators ranked first in the world. The industrial concentration of the shipbuilding industry has further increased. The top 10 companies in the country accounted for 58.3% of the country's shipbuilding completions, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from 2016. There is a clear trend of new orders being concentrated towards advantageous companies, with the top 10 companies accounting for 73.4% of the country's new orders. my country's backbone shipbuilding companies have obvious advantages and the core competitiveness of the industry continues to improve. Five companies have entered the top 10 in the world in terms of completions, and 4 companies have entered the top 10 in the world in terms of new orders.
(2) Product structure is continuously optimized and brand building is carried out in an orderly manner
In 2017, my country's backbone shipping companies continued to increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, continuously upgraded their product structure, and successfully developed a number of high-tech, high value-added ships. The world's first 38.8 thousand-ton smart ship, the world's most advanced 6,000-ton riprap ship, an 84,000 cubic meter ultra-large gas carrier, a saturation submersible support ship and other high-end ship types and marine engineering equipment were successfully delivered. The world's largest 22,000TEU dual-fuel container ship, 174, was successfully delivered. Thousand cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, 174,000 cubic meters of floating liquefied natural gas storage and regasification unit (LNG-FSRU), 300,000 tons of floating production and storage vessels (FPSO) and other high-tech ships and offshore engineering orders, the repair load ratio of new orders reached 0.34. my country's shipbuilding companies keep up with market demand and continue to promote the construction of superior product brands. Nantong COSCO Shipping Kawasaki Ship Engineering Co., Ltd. promotes the product upgrade of large container ships and clean energy ships, forming brand ship models with good performance, quality and technology. In 2017, 7 projects in the shipping industry won the National Science and Technology Award, including Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.'s Capesize bulk carrier, Jiangnan Shipbuilding (Group) Co., Ltd.'s dual-fuel liquefied ethylene gas carrier, and Guangzhou Shipbuilding International Co., Ltd.'s medium-range transport (MR type) product oil tanker. Product engineering (work) of CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. Ship 4 items were selected as the second individual champion product in the manufacturing industry.
(3) Focus on market segments and proactively lead market demand
In 2017, my country's backbone shipping companies took the initiative to respond to the current situation of insufficient market demand for new ships in the three major mainstream ship types in recent years. They worked intensively in segmented product fields and actively developed markets for special ships, river-ocean combined transport ships, small and medium-sized ships, and ocean-going fishing ships. They achieved remarkable results. They successfully delivered the world's first three-petal independent C-type storage tank liquid ethane gas carrier, and the world's first 25,000-ton LNG high-pressure dual-fuel general cargo ship. Asia's largest self-propelled cutter suction dredger "Tiankun" and China's first pure electric self-unloading cargo ship have been launched; my country's offshore equipment manufacturing companies have taken the initiative to cultivate new economic growth points and actively explore the development of non-oil and gas markets such as marine mineral resources, marine biological resources and marine space resources. They have successively delivered the world's first deep-sea semi-submersible large-scale intelligent fishery "Ocean Fishery No. 1" and a self-elevating multi-functional marine ranch platform. The "Deep Sea Warrior" manned submersible; the ultra-deep water twin-tower semi-submersible drilling platform "Blue Whale 1" helped my country's first successful trial production of natural gas hydrate (combustible ice) in the sea; the world's first deep-sea mining ship project is advancing steadily. It is actively exploring new areas such as offshore wind power, offshore natural gas power generation ships, floating power generation + desalination platforms, offshore garbage power generation ships, offshore entertainment integrated platforms, and offshore hotels.
(4) Solidly promote lean management and take multiple measures to reduce costs
In 2017, the global shipping and shipbuilding market continued to be sluggish. Shipbuilding companies faced difficulties such as "difficulty in accepting orders", "difficulty in delivering ships" and "difficulty in making profits". Focusing on changes in market and customer needs, they made full efforts to transform in terms of product strategies, technological innovation, management models, etc., and strived to reduce costs through lean management, cost control, intelligent manufacturing, risk prevention and other measures. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has deepened the promotion of the key project of "Model Transformation - Lean Shipbuilding", and the construction efficiency of the group enterprises has continued to improve. The first 72,000-ton product oil tanker of Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Group Co., Ltd. was launched 17 days ahead of schedule, and the construction cycle of very large crude oil carriers (VLCC) in the dock continues to shorten; Huangpu Wenchong continues to carry out cost reduction and efficiency improvement work, through strict implementation of budget management, special cost management, and active procurement management and other measures to "cut off" costs, reducing costs by more than 300 million yuan. Jinhai Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. saves 10% of electricity costs every year through a photovoltaic power generation roof project. Zhoushan Wanbang Yongyue Repair and Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has introduced ship repair robots to increase average operating efficiency by 3x; Nantong COSCO Shipping Kawasaki has transformed its production model through intelligent manufacturing, and its shipbuilding intelligent workshop has adopted automated production lines to increase production efficiency by 3x; China Merchants Group, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, etc. have saved financing costs by issuing corporate bonds.
(5) Deleveraging through market-based means and deepening the integration of industry and finance
In 2017, while European banks continued to wait and see and some banks tightened ship financing, the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank continued to support the transformation and upgrading of my country's shipbuilding industry to high-quality manufacturing through policy financial means. my country's ship financing leasing business developed rapidly and gradually became the main buyer in the global new shipbuilding market. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017 ICBC Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., Minsheng Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. China-funded financial leasing companies such as CDB Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and BoCom Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. have ordered more than 3 million tons of ships in domestic shipyards, supporting the healthy development of my country's shipping companies with financial innovation models. my country's key shipbuilding companies continue to innovate financing models and solve financing difficulties through market-oriented means such as bond issuance and debt-for-equity swaps. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has effectively optimized its capital structure, effectively reduced its leverage ratio, and dropped its asset-liability ratio by 11% through the implementation of market-oriented debt-for-equity swaps.
(6) Independent innovation of key technologies and quality upgrading of ship parts industry
In 2017, international maritime rules have increasingly stringent requirements for the ship supporting industry, especially for emissions. In order to adapt to the new requirements of the shipping and shipbuilding industries for green and environmentally friendly products, my country's ship supporting enterprises have increased their research and development efforts on key core technologies, strengthened product development and market expansion. The world's first micro-ignition dual-fuel engine, and the country's first marine low-speed diesel engine with an independently developed high-pressure selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system, The world's largest diameter marine propeller was delivered; independently developed electric-driven marine winch with active heave compensation function, CS21 marine medium-speed diesel engine, full-speed stabilizer fin, R6 mooring chain, GCS1000 gearbox and other product technologies filled the domestic gap and broke foreign monopoly; Qingdao Shuangrui BalClor series ballast water management system became the first product in Asia to obtain the type approval certificate of the United States Coast Guard (USCG).
(1) The problem of “financing difficulties” has not been effectively alleviated
In 2017, financial institutions have further increased their attention to the risks of shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment construction companies, and some banks have tightened credit extensions or extended credit approvals, increasing the difficulty of financing for companies. Although the market has recovered, the shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment market is still at a low point, the cash flow of companies has shrunk significantly, and key large companies in the industry are facing the problem of financial constraints. The "financing difficulty" problem in the shipbuilding industry has not been effectively alleviated.
(2) The number of orders on hand continues to decline, and there is a long way to go to reduce overcapacity.
In recent years, all major shipbuilding countries have been working hard to eliminate excess production capacity. However, compared with the sharp contraction in the demand for new ships, new orders received by shipbuilding companies are difficult to meet normal production needs. my country's handheld ship orders have been declining for four consecutive years, and most shipbuilding companies can only maintain about 1 years of work and face severe challenges in ensuring continuous production capacity. From the demand side, the international new shipbuilding market averages about 80 million tons per year, and my country can undertake more than 40% of market orders. Faced with the new normal of new ship demand, Only by persisting in promoting supply-side structural reform, giving full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and working hard to reduce overcapacity, can the shipping industry truly get out of the trough and achieve recovery.
(3) Comprehensive costs rise rapidly and profit margins shrink significantly
In 2017, affected by the decline in on-hand ship orders and the increasing gap in ship construction, the competition in the new ship market was extremely fierce, and the contradiction between the price and cost of new ships was highlighted. On the one hand, the demand for ships in the market was low and the quantity was low. Shipbuilding companies started insufficient construction and had difficulty in delivery, which put pressure on both sides. On the other hand, since the end of 2016, the price of raw materials, mainly ship plates, has continued to rise, with an average increase of more than 40%. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has continued to rise, and corporate financial expenses have increased. The shortage of labor has led to a rigid increase in labor costs; the number of companies changing orders and delaying delivery has increased, and management expenses have continued to grow. The rapid increase in the comprehensive costs of shipbuilding companies has greatly squeezed the profit margins of shipbuilding companies, the profitability of the industry has dropped significantly, and sustainable development has been affected.
(4) The external environment continues to deteriorate and the risks of projects on hand increase.
In 2017, internationally renowned offshore engineering operators such as Hafila Shipping, Tidewater Company, Falstad Shipping, etc. filed for bankruptcy or planned debt restructuring, which had a huge impact on the offshore engineering equipment construction market. The phenomenon of delayed delivery of offshore engineering platform projects and abandonment of ships by ship companies became more and more serious, and the market environment continued to deteriorate. According to statistics, there was a significant increase in projects involving contract termination and abandonment of various offshore engineering platforms held by ship companies. These projects were repeatedly requested by shipowners to delay delivery, and were eventually abandoned, which had a great impact on the production and operation of shipyards. The customized characteristics of offshore engineering equipment products make it extremely difficult to resell them. Currently, the technology of the offshore engineering industry is changing rapidly, and the risk of ship abandonment in the offshore engineering projects in hand by shipbuilding companies continues to accumulate, making the delivery situation particularly severe.
In 2018, global economic development will tend to be stable, and the shipping market is expected to be stable and good. International shipping demand will increase slightly, old ships will continue to be eliminated, excess shipping capacity will be further digested and absorbed, and the new ship market is expected to remain active. It is expected that the global new ship transaction volume in 2018 will be 70 million to 75 million deadweight tons, and the offshore engineering equipment transaction volume will be approximately 13 billion US dollars. There is a possibility of a slight increase in new ship prices. The trading volume of large ships will fall back in 2018, and the trading volume of some small and medium-sized ships will be active. The market of a few special ships such as luxury cruise ships, car carriers, and ro-ro passenger ships is still worthy of attention. Global oil and gas development will continue to pick up, and market hot spots will still be concentrated in the fields of floating production platforms, offshore wind farm construction and operation and maintenance equipment, and LNG-related equipment.
It is expected that in 2018, the main economic indicators of my country's shipbuilding industry will continue to be at a low level, the shipbuilding completion volume may decline, and the number of new orders may increase compared with 2017. The number of orders on hand at the end of the year will be approximately 80 million deadweight tons.
(1) Unswervingly promote the high-quality development of the shipbuilding industry
2018 is a critical year for the shipbuilding industry to implement the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan". The entire industry should closely focus on the strategic goals of "Made in China 2025" and building a maritime power, and implement the key tasks proposed by policies such as the "Action Plan for Deepening Structural Adjustment and Accelerating Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2016-2020)" and the "Action Plan for the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Marine Engineering Equipment Manufacturing Industry (2017-2020)". With innovative development and industrial upgrading as the core, and the deep integration of manufacturing technology and information technology as an important starting point, we will vigorously promote supply-side structural reform and comprehensively enhance the industry's international competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities. Unswervingly promote the high-quality development of the shipbuilding industry, strive to build a shipbuilding industry system with strong scale and strength, strong innovation capabilities, good quality and efficiency, and optimized structure, and strive to join the ranks of world shipbuilding powers and advanced countries in marine engineering equipment manufacturing.
(2) Take multiple measures to solve the "financing difficulty" dilemma of the shipbuilding industry
Currently, my country's shipbuilding industry is in a critical period of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. Financial support, especially financing capacity, is a key factor in whether the shipbuilding industry can achieve high-quality development. It is recommended that financial institutions, while preventing financial risks, can implement differentiated credit policies for the shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment industries based on actual conditions, continuously innovate financing models, and increase financing support for high-quality shipbuilding companies. All companies should actively seek diversified financing methods, and raise funds through listings at home and abroad. Issue various debt financing instruments and optimize the financing structure. Try to use RMB pricing and settlement in foreign trade and related investment and financing activities to reduce exchange rate risks and reduce exchange costs. Encourage high-quality key enterprises to carry out market-oriented debt-for-equity swaps and reduce the asset-liability ratio.
(3) Coordinate and balance the overcapacity reduction and structural adjustment of the shipbuilding industry
At present, the demand for new ships in the global shipbuilding market has rebounded, but a calm analysis shows that compared with the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" periods, the transaction volume in 2017 is still at a low level, and the scale of hand-held ship orders continues to shrink. Although my country's backbone shipbuilding companies have actively resolved excess production capacity through various channels and achieved phased results. However, the entire industry must fully understand the basic fact that the oversupply contradiction in the international shipbuilding market will exist for a long time in the future, and attach great importance to the importance of overcapacity reduction. Difficulty and complexity, we must resolutely curb the urge to expand production capacity by building high-tech ships, and adhere to the path of marketization and legalization to reduce overcapacity. Actively explore the combination of ship and offshore equipment manufacturing industries with tourism, fishery, renewable energy, deep sea space and mineral resource development, expand market segments, actively create demand, cultivate new economic growth points, and accelerate the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure.
(4) Further improve corporate technological innovation and improve quality and efficiency
At present, the world's ship technology is developing rapidly, new international shipbuilding norms and standards are frequently promulgated, ship owners have stricter requirements on technology and quality, and major competitors such as Japan and South Korea have increased their efforts in scientific and technological innovation, which makes our country's shipbuilding industry face greater challenges. On the one hand, we must adapt to changes in the market structure, closely contact ship owners, increase investment in research and development, improve innovation capabilities, strive to develop green and environmentally friendly ships that meet market demand, create branded ship types, and lead the market with technology. On the other hand, when ship prices are down, Under the dual pressure of rising comprehensive costs in the manufacturing industry, strengthening cost control and management has become an important way for enterprises to improve their international competitiveness. All work should be promoted with improving production efficiency and reducing manufacturing costs as the core. By strengthening financial management, paying close attention to cost reduction and efficiency, promoting the integration of informatization and informatization, developing intelligent manufacturing, implementing lean shipbuilding, controlling procurement costs, reducing energy consumption and other measures, the level of corporate management can be comprehensively improved.
(5) Strengthen risk management and control of on-hand orders for offshore engineering equipment
Currently, the external market environment of the international offshore engineering equipment industry is severe, and orders for offshore engineering projects in hand are delayed in delivery or even canceled frequently. All enterprises should fully understand the importance and urgency of offshore engineering project risks, strengthen and improve the full-process management and risk prevention of offshore engineering projects, and reduce the risk factors of the enterprise's own default. For projects under construction, we will help customers solve difficulties in financing and operating leasing based on their specific needs, and create conditions for equipment delivery; for projects that have been out of danger, we will closely follow the arbitration, We will take effective measures to actively respond to the progress of compensation and other work to avoid systemic risks.