Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/18490.html
In 2022, the economic operation of my country's shipbuilding industry is generally stable and improving. Under the cordial care of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and with the hard work of all shipbuilders, my country's shipbuilding industry has calmly responded to the century-old changes and the challenges of the century's epidemic, adhered to the theme of promoting high-quality development, and further promoted the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The shipbuilding market share has maintained a global lead, high-end equipment has made new breakthroughs, the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain and supply chain have improved, the destocking of marine engineering equipment has achieved remarkable results, and the quality of economic operations has significantly improved. However, short-term problems overlap with medium- and long-term problems, and the future development situation remains grim.
In 2022, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 37.86 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The number of new orders received was 45.52 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1%. As of the end of December, the number of orders on hand was 105.57 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%.
The number of completed export ships nationwide was 30.67 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%; the newly received export ship orders were 40.56 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%; as of the end of December, the number of export ship orders in hand was 95.22 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Export ships accounted for 81.0% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 89.1% and 90.2%.
From January to November 2022, my country's ship export value was US$23.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$12.38 billion, accounting for 51.9% of the total export value. my country's ship products are exported to 191 countries and regions, and the export value of ships to Asia, Europe, and Latin America is 12.28 billion, respectively. 4.05 billion and 2.06 billion US dollars.
From January to November 2022, there were 1,093 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size nationwide, achieving main business income of 457.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. Shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 13.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%.
In 2022, my country's shipbuilding international market share has ranked first in the world for 13 consecutive years, and its status as a major shipbuilding country has been further consolidated. my country's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and orders on hand accounted for 47.3%, 55.2%, and 49.0% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage, respectively, an increase of 0.1, 1.4, and 1.4 percentage points respectively compared with 2021, and accounted for 43.5% in terms of corrected total tonnage. 49.8% and 42.8%, also maintaining the global lead. my country's backbone shipbuilding companies maintain strong international competitiveness, with 6 companies entering the top 10 in the world in terms of shipbuilding completion volume, new orders and orders on hand.
In 2022, my country's shipbuilding companies will continue to increase their research and development efforts and achieve new breakthroughs in the fields of high-tech ships and marine engineering equipment. 24,000TEU container ships, 174,000 cubic meters of large LNG and other high-end ship types have been delivered in batches, the first domestic large-scale cruise ship has achieved a major milestone in the main generator, and the second large-scale cruise ship has successfully started construction. A 100,000-ton smart fishery large-scale breeding work ship, a fourth-generation self-elevating wind power installation ship, and a cylindrical FPSO (Floating production storage and offloading unit) and other marine engineering equipment were delivered. A 300,000-ton LNG dual-fuel powered very large tanker (VLCC), a 209,000-ton Newcastle-type LNG dual-fuel powered bulk carrier, a 49.9,000-ton methanol dual-fuel powered chemical/product oil tanker and other green-powered ships were completed and delivered. The proportion of green-powered ships in new orders received throughout the year reached 49.1%, a record high.
In 2022, the shipment rate of domestic marine main engines, marine boilers, marine cranes, marine gas supply systems (FGSS) and other ancillary equipment continues to increase. Dalian Huarui's 1,000th marine crankshaft rolls off the production line and is delivered. The world's first dual-fuel main engine with intelligent control exhaust gas recirculation system is completed and delivered. The development capabilities of high-end marine steels continue to improve, and all crack arrest plates for large container ships have been replaced by domestic products. The localization rate of duplex stainless steel for chemical ships has increased from less than 50% to more than 90%, the domestic high-manganese steel tank project has started smoothly, the domestic stainless steel for membrane-type LNG tankers has passed the patent company certification, and the domestic full-position automatic welding equipment for corrugated plates of LNG ships has been successfully developed. The safety level of the industrial chain and supply chain has been significantly improved.
In 2022, international oil prices fluctuated at high levels, and the spot price of Brent international crude oil once climbed to US$139/barrel, a new high since the financial crisis, driving the expansion of global offshore oil and gas equipment market demand. Domestic offshore engineering equipment companies seized the opportunity and achieved positive results in "destocking". Among them, China State Shipbuilding Group delivered 2 jack-up drilling platforms and 6 offshore engineering auxiliary ships; China Merchants Industry Group delivered 2 drilling platforms. 3 multi-functional service platforms and 1 other equipment; COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. delivered 2 offshore engineering auxiliary ships; Yantai CIMC Raffles Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. obtained a lease for a semi-submersible drilling platform and a jack-up drilling platform.
In 2022, the market environment factors of the shipping industry generally showed favorable changes. Clarkson's new ship price composite index was 162 points, up 4.5% for the whole year. Among them, the average price of new ships such as large container ships, 7,000-space car carriers, and 174,000 cubic meters large LNG ships increased by more than 10%. The price of marine 6mm and 20mm steel plates has dropped by more than 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year; the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated by 9.23%. At the same time, shipbuilding companies have reduced costs and increased efficiency by strengthening the management of large-scale shipbuilding plans, implementing intelligent transformation of production lines, and strengthening cost management. From January to November, the efficiency of shipbuilding companies has improved significantly, and the main operating income profit margin has rebounded to 3.0%.
In 2022, my country's shipping companies consolidated their leading position in the market for superior ship types and consolidated the basis for new ship orders. Among the 18 major ship types in the world, my country ranked first in the world in new orders for 12 ship types. Among them, new orders for bulk carriers, container ships, car carriers and crude oil tankers accounted for 74.3%, 56.8%, 88.7% and 66.1% of the global total respectively. In particular, A major breakthrough was made in the field of large LNG ships, and the international market share of new large LNG ship orders for the year exceeded 30% for the first time. The structure of new ship orders throughout the year was optimized and improved, and the repair load ratio (corrected gross tonnage/dwt) reached 0.468, the best level in history.
In 2022, my country's shipbuilding orders will exceed 100 million deadweight tons for the first time in 6 years. The average production guarantee coefficient of shipbuilding companies (on-hand orders/average completion volume in the past three years) is about 2.7 years. Some companies have already scheduled delivery dates to 2026. At present, shipbuilding companies have full production tasks, especially with the rapid growth of high-tech ship orders, which has increased the demand for skilled labor. In recent years, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, Shipbuilding companies have lost a lot of migrant workers. Recently, due to the increase in the number of infections due to the epidemic, the staff attendance rate has dropped significantly, exacerbating the problem of labor shortage. The contradiction between full production tasks and insufficient labor supply in shipbuilding companies has further expanded, and the problem of the stability of the labor force team has become more prominent.
In the past two years, with the substantial growth in orders for new ships, the demand for ship supporting equipment has increased significantly. However, it is difficult for shipbuilding companies to increase their production capacity quickly in a short period of time. Product prices have risen and supply delays are common. In addition, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the production cycle, logistics costs and transportation cycles of supporting equipment have generally increased. The supply of some imported supporting equipment has become tighter. The average arrival cycle of ship communications, navigation, automatic control systems, electronic and electrical equipment, etc. is 1-3 months longer than normal. The delivery cycle for ship engine chips, crankshafts, piston rings and control systems is on average more than 3-6 months longer than normal.
In 2022, the global economy entered a period of high inflation and low growth, with economic growth slowing down by nearly half compared to the previous year, and consumer demand and maritime trade development being affected. The most prominent thing is that in 2022, the container transportation market experienced significant adjustments, and container ship freight prices fell for eight consecutive months, falling to 27.6 thousand US dollars per day by the end of the year, a decrease of 68.4% from the high point during the year. Since the second half of the year, the new ship price comprehensive index has experienced "stagflation." Maintaining at the level of 162 points for six consecutive months, the prices of individual ship types have fallen slightly. The risk of short-term adjustments to the international shipping and shipbuilding market due to macroeconomic changes is gradually increasing.
In 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions predict that the world economy will face greater downward pressure, economic growth will continue to be low, and shrinking demand will have an adverse impact on the international shipping and shipbuilding market. After comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the global shipbuilding completion volume in 2023 will remain at a historically high level of 100 million deadweight tons, the number of new orders will be less than 100 million deadweight tons, and the number of orders on hand will remain at 200 million deadweight tons; my country's shipbuilding completion volume will exceed 42 million deadweight tons, the number of new ship orders is about 4000-50 million deadweight tons, and the number of existing ship orders will remain at around 100 million deadweight tons.
In the next 3-4 years, my country's shipping companies will usher in a peak delivery period, and the proportion of high-tech ships will increase significantly. 2023-2024 is the period of concentrated delivery of large container ships. According to the plan, my country will deliver 44 large container ships of 15,000TEU and above, accounting for more than 20% of the shipbuilding completions that year. 2025-2026 is the period of concentrated delivery of large LNG ships, and many companies are building large LNG ships for the first time. It is recommended that shipbuilding companies comprehensively strengthen production planning and material supporting management, adhere to quality first, safety first, and ensure that ships with orders are delivered on time. Fully implement the company's main responsibility for safety production, strengthen the entire process safety production management, ensure the orderly advancement of production, and protect the safety of employees.
In the past two years, the global new shipbuilding market has remained active, and the market demand for different ship types has shown rotating development. The prices of new ships such as large container ships, car carriers, large LNG ships, etc. have increased significantly. Within a year, the price difference of the same type of ship has reached tens of millions of dollars. It is recommended that shipbuilding companies strengthen tracking of the development of the international shipping and shipbuilding market, avoid blindly following the trend, combine their own ship orders and ship slot arrangements, and optimize business strategies and grasp the rhythm of order acceptance while ensuring the continuity of production. Further improve the quality of new orders.
Currently, the external environment faced by the shipping industry has become more complex and uncertain. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has continued to appreciate, breaking through the 6.8 mark; the price of imported iron ore has reached US$116/ton, an increase of 43.2% from the low in 2022; new ship price fluctuations have increased, the new ship price comprehensive index has experienced "stagflation", and the prices of individual ship types have fallen. It is recommended that shipbuilding companies strengthen market research and judgment. Adhere to the concept of risk neutrality, strengthen upstream and downstream cooperation in the industry chain, and control risks such as raw material costs and exchange rate changes by signing long-term purchase agreements with steel companies and forward exchange settlement agreements with financial institutions. In addition, the International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s existing new rules such as ship energy efficiency index (EEXI) and ship operation carbon intensity indicator (CII) ratings have come into effect, and the revised IMO ship greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy will be adopted in July 2023. It is recommended that relevant shipbuilding companies and research institutions pay close attention to it and study and take countermeasures as soon as possible.
At present, the contradiction between the rapid growth of production of my country's shipbuilding companies and insufficient labor supply has become increasingly prominent, which has become an important factor restricting the high-quality development of the industry. It is recommended that relevant government departments attach great importance to it, organize in-depth research, and increase policy support for shipbuilding company employee recruitment, professional job training, etc. It is recommended that key shipbuilding areas, combined with vocational education reform, research and innovate professional and technical personnel and technician talent training mechanisms for shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment. It is recommended that key shipbuilding companies reform the existing employment model and explore ways to moderately increase the number of workers. Measures such as improving worker treatment and working environment should be taken to maintain the stability of the workforce and improve technical levels. At the same time, it is recommended that shipbuilding companies steadily promote the application of intelligent manufacturing technology based on the existing foundation and conditions, improve production efficiency, and alleviate the problem of labor shortage.