Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/19204.html
2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and is the year for economic recovery and development after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control. my country's shipbuilding industry has shown a good development trend of steady improvement, progress while stability, and quality improvement while stability. The three major shipbuilding indicators have grown simultaneously, the international market share has maintained a leading position, revenue, profits, and exports have increased across the board, high-end equipment has made breakthroughs, and green and low-carbon development has accelerated. However, the industry still faces many challenges in maintaining stable and healthy development.
In 2023, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 42.32 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%; the number of new orders received was 71.2 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%. At the end of December, the number of orders on hand was 139.39 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%.
The number of completed export ships nationwide was 34.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; the number of export ship orders undertaken was 66.51 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.1%; at the end of December, the number of export ship orders in hand was 130.15 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. Export ships accounted for 81.6% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 93.4% and 93.4%.
In 2023, the export value of my country's shipbuilding products was US$31.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, the export value of the three mainstream ship types of bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships totaled US$18.71 billion, accounting for 58.7% of the total export value. my country's shipbuilding products were exported to 191 countries and regions, and the export value of ships to Asia, Europe, and Latin America was 17.73 billion, 2.9 billion, and 2.84 billion respectively. billion dollars.
In 2023, the national shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved main business income of 623.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%; total profits were 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.7%.
In 2023, my country's status as a major shipbuilding country has been further consolidated, and its market share has ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years. my country's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and on-hand orders accounted for 50.2%, 66.6%, and 55.0% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage respectively. For the first time, the market share exceeded 50%, an increase of 2.9, 11.4, and 6.0 percentage points respectively compared with 2022. The market shares of the three major indicators accounted for 47.6%, 60.2% and 47.6% respectively in terms of corrected gross tonnage. The international competitiveness of key shipbuilding companies has continued to increase, with 5, 7 and 6 companies respectively ranking among the top 10 in the world in terms of shipbuilding completions, new orders and orders on hand. The three major shipbuilding indicators of China State Shipbuilding Corporation ranked first among global shipbuilding groups.
In November 2023, the first domestically produced large-scale cruise ship "Aida·Modu" was named and delivered, and officially made its commercial maiden voyage on January 1, 2024, marking that my country has formed a full spectrum of final assembly and construction capabilities for marine products. Chinese shipping companies have delivered 20 of the world's largest ultra-large container ships with a capacity of 24,000 boxes, 4 large LNG carriers of 174,000 cubic meters, and the world's largest shallow water channel 80,000 cubic meter LNG carrier. The independently designed and built fifth-generation "Changheng Series" 174,000 cubic meter large LNG ship was successfully docked. A batch of new deep-sea large-scale wind power installation ships, deep-sea aquaculture equipment, floating production, storage and unloading oil vessels and other high-end marine engineering equipment were successfully delivered. The world's largest single unit capacity of 16 trillion watt offshore wind turbines was successfully connected to the grid to generate electricity.
In 2023, my country's shipbuilding companies consolidated the position of dominant ship types, seized the opportunity of rotation in market segments, and continued to optimize the structure of new ship orders. Among the 18 major ship types in the world, my country ranked first in the world in new orders for 14 ship types. Orders for green ships such as LNG and methanol power grew rapidly, and orders for zero-carbon ships such as ammonia fuel reservation and hydrogen fuel cells achieved breakthroughs. The international market share of new green ship orders reached 57.0%, achieving full coverage of mainstream ship types. The world's largest 700-ton pure electric-powered container ship, the world's largest 5,400-horsepower pure electric tugboat, and the country's first 500-kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell-powered ship have been developed and put into use.
In 2023, key shipbuilding companies accelerated the pace of "intelligent transformation to digital transformation", increased investment in technological innovation, strengthened lean management, and corporate efficiency was significantly improved. At the same time, the market environment that affects corporate efficiency, such as ship prices, steel prices, and exchange rates, have all changed in a favorable direction. The global new shipbuilding market demand is active, shipbuilding companies have received a large increase in new orders, and the average production guarantee factor (on-hand orders/average shipbuilding completion volume in the past 3 years) has reached 3.5 years. Some companies have scheduled production until 2028. Clarkson's new ship price index rose by 10.1% throughout the year, hitting a new high since 2009. The price of marine 6mm and 20mm specification steel plates fluctuated throughout the year and fell slightly by more than 100 yuan/ton; the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated by more than 1.9%. In 2023, the main income profit margin of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size reached 4.2%, a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points.
In 2023, new progress was made in the development of my country's key ship supporting products. Domestic X92 large-scale marine low-speed engine crankshaft forgings, wind power operation and maintenance ship compensation trestles, LNG ship filling systems and other equipment were delivered. China State Shipbuilding Corporation completed 403 marine low-speed engines, exceeding 10 million horsepower for the first time in terms of power, accounting for about 40% of the global market. New breakthroughs were made in the research and development of new energy equipment, marine methanol fuel, The ammonia fuel supply system received a batch order, the first marine medium-speed and high-power ammonia fuel engine was successfully ignited, the world's first marine methanol dual-fuel boiler obtained the type approval certificate and product certificate, and the domestically developed marine carbon capture system (CCUS) obtained the principle approval certificate.
Several safety production accidents in shipping companies have sounded the alarm to the entire industry, and all companies need to pay close attention to it. With the rapid increase in the production tasks of shipbuilding companies, workers have to work overtime, cross-operations have increased, and safety risks have increased in key links such as paint spraying, hot work, high-altitude operations, confined space operations, and hoisting operations. At the same time, the number of new employees in shipbuilding companies has increased significantly, and statistics show that, The number of employees in key monitoring shipbuilding companies increased by 13.8% over the previous year, which also brought about problems such as insufficient awareness of production safety among new employees, low risk identification capabilities, and the failure of company safety training to be in place in a timely manner.
The number of orders held by shipbuilding companies has hit a new high since 2014. The production tasks are full and the pressure on contract delivery has increased. "Guaranteed delivery, fast delivery, and good ship delivery" have put forward higher requirements for the company's comprehensive capabilities such as production management, supply guarantee, and operation and order taking. Currently, the repair load ratio (corrected gross tonnage/dwt) of shipbuilding companies' held ship orders has risen to 0.42, a record high. With the increase in both the total order volume and the proportion of high-tech ships, The complexity of enterprise production and operation has also increased significantly. Among them, the batch construction of high-tech ships such as large gas ships, ultra-large container ships, car carriers, and dual-fuel ships has tested the company's control over production capacity coordination, special equipment supply cycles, and the application of new process construction methods. In addition, the uncertainty in the downstream shipping market has increased, and the freight differentiation in subdivisions has increased, which may pose potential risks to the delivery progress of some ship types.
The risk of fluctuations in the steel, exchange rate and shipping markets has increased. As of the end of December 2023, the average prices of imported iron ore and coke were US$123/ton and 2,413 yuan/ton respectively, up 15.5% and 33.1% respectively from the mid-year lows, leaving room for a rebound in steel prices. The intensification of global geopolitical conflicts has impacted the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains, and the international shipping market has fluctuated widely. The amplitude of the Clarkson Composite Freight Index reached 36.1%. There is a high probability that the U.S. monetary policy will be adjusted in 2024, from an interest rate hike cycle to an interest rate cut channel, which will lead to a shift in global monetary policy and will also affect changes in the RMB exchange rate.
According to the latest economic outlook released by many international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank, global economic growth is expected to slow down further in 2024. Coupled with factors such as ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the global shipping and shipbuilding industries will face more challenges. However, as the decarbonization process of the industry accelerates, it will have a positive effect on the new shipbuilding market. According to comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the global shipbuilding completion volume in 2024 will remain at a historically high level of 100 million deadweight tons, and the number of new orders will be between 80 million and 100 million. million deadweight tons, and the number of orders on hand remains above 200 million deadweight tons; my country's shipbuilding completion volume will be around 45 million deadweight tons, the number of new orders received is about 55 million deadweight tons, and the number of pending orders remains above 130 million deadweight tons.
At present, shipbuilding enterprises have heavy production tasks and rising safety production risks. All enterprises must attach great importance to it, actively implement the "China Shipbuilding Industry Safety Development Initiative", strictly manage, work hard, resolutely curb major safety accidents, and make every effort to maintain the stability of the industry's safety production situation. First, we must improve our political position and effectively fulfill the company's main responsibility for safety production. Second, we must improve the company's safety production rules and regulations, establish and improve "responsibility at all levels, everyone is responsible, The work system and responsibility system of "Everyone Takes Their Responsibility". Third, we must do a solid job in the investigation and management of enterprise safety hazards and improve safety risk management and control capabilities. Fourth, we must attach importance to the application of advanced corporate technologies and vigorously promote technological prosperity. Fifth, we must strengthen enterprise safety education and training, improve employee safety quality, and form good behavioral habits of complying with regulations and disciplines.
The next two years will be the peak delivery period for my country's shipbuilding companies, as well as the concentrated delivery period for high-tech ships such as large LNG ships and large container ships. All shipbuilding companies must take "guaranteing ship delivery" as their top priority. First, conscientiously implement the relevant requirements of the "Action Outline for Green Development of the Shipbuilding Manufacturing Industry (2024-2030)", promote changes in the final assembly and construction model, and accelerate the green transformation of the shipbuilding industry's product system, manufacturing system, and supply chain system. The second is to speed up the "intelligent transformation" of shipbuilding enterprises, strengthen lean management, optimize production processes, improve standardization levels, improve the efficiency of final assembly and construction, and further shorten the ship construction cycle. The third is to strengthen production plan management, improve the material supporting supply chain, refine key tasks, strictly grasp key nodes, strengthen collaboration with ship owners and classification societies, and ensure high-quality and on-time delivery of ships.
Facing the complexity, severity, and rising uncertainty of the external environment, the entire industry must adhere to the concept of risk neutrality and strive to respond to the uncertainty of changing situations with the certainty of its own work. The first is to improve the security level of the industrial chain and supply chain, give play to the "chain master" role of leading shipbuilding companies, and drive key shipbuilding supporting companies to supplement and extend the chain. The second is to strengthen the upstream and downstream coordination of the industrial chain, adopt long-term procurement agreements with steel companies, and use futures hedging tools. and signing forward exchange settlement agreements with financial institutions to control risks such as raw material costs and exchange rate changes. The third is to strengthen analysis and judgment of the global shipping and shipbuilding market, deepen research on key international maritime rules and standards and major industry issues, pay close attention to major emerging and trend issues, and provide strong support for enterprise production and operation, healthy development of the industry, and government department decision-making.