Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/12622.html
In the first half of 2019, the global economic recovery slowed down and the international shipping market rebounded slightly. Affected by international trade frictions and geopolitics, global demand for new ships dropped sharply. my country's shipbuilding completion volume continued to grow, and new ship orders and handheld ship orders declined year-on-year. Problems such as "financing difficulties" and "order acceptance" have not been alleviated, and the stable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry still faces greater challenges.
In the first half of the year, the country's shipbuilding completion volume was 19.66 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. New ship orders received were 12.06 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.9%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders on hand was 81.72 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, and a decrease of 5% from the end of 2018. Export ships accounted for the national shipbuilding completion volume and new orders respectively. 92.9%, 91.5% and 90.8% of the order volume on hand.
From January to May 2019, there were 1,027 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, achieving main business income of 158.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises were 104.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; ship supporting enterprises were 21.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%; ship repair enterprises were 7.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; ship dismantling enterprises were 5.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. A year-on-year increase of 52.7%; offshore engineering special equipment manufacturing enterprises were 18.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.
Affected by the low base in the same period last year, shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 7.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 241%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises 3.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248%; ship supporting enterprises 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%; ship repair enterprises 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550%; ship dismantling enterprises 290 million yuan, A year-on-year increase of 203%; marine engineering special equipment manufacturing enterprises 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%.
In the first half of the year, my country's backbone shipping companies closely focused on the main line of high-quality development, continuously increased investment in scientific and technological research and development, strived to improve management levels, and continued to optimize the ship product structure. The three major mainstream ship types entered the new era of "intelligent ships 1.0", and the world's first 400,000-ton intelligent very large ore carrier (VLOC), 300,000-ton intelligent very large oil tanker (VLCC), and 13,800TEU intelligent container ship were successfully delivered. New breakthroughs were made in the research and development and construction of high-end ship types, an 85,000 cubic meter ethane ethylene (VLEC) carrier, a 49,000-ton duplex stainless steel chemical tanker, a 64,000-ton large wood chip ship was delivered to the owner, a domestic polar expedition cruise ship, a 174,000 cubic meter liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship of the Yamal project completed sea trials, a 7,500-space LNG-powered car ro-ro ship, an Antarctic krill ship, and an unofficial hospital ship, The world's first general-purpose offshore floating production and storage vessel (FPSO) was successfully undocked. New results were achieved in the construction of special ships. The first independently built polar scientific research icebreaker, a new deep-sea comprehensive scientific research vessel, and a comprehensive marine fishery scientific survey ship were delivered. my country's first 10,000-ton maritime patrol ship, a large-scale floating LNG storage and regasification unit (LNG-FSRU) started construction, and the domestic large-scale luxury cruise construction project was actively promoted.
In the first half of the year, key shipbuilding companies overcame the adverse effects of a sharp shrinkage in global new ship orders, sluggish new ship prices, and continued increases in shipbuilding costs. They continued to strengthen production management, strive to improve shipbuilding efficiency, and continue to promote the intelligent development of the shipbuilding industry. The quality, efficiency, and benefits of shipbuilding continued to improve. Jiangnan Shipbuilding (Group) Co., Ltd. delivered the world's first paperless ship through digital construction on a three-dimensional experience platform. Shipbuilding efficiency increased by 30%, and error rates were reduced by 60%. The berth loading cycle is shortened by 2 months. The intelligent ship manufacturing assembly line developed and manufactured by the Shanghai Ship Technology Research Institute has achieved a "zero" breakthrough in localization, effectively improving product quality, reducing energy consumption by 30%, reducing the labor ratio by 40%, and increasing production efficiency by 50%. my country's first intelligent unmanned ship production line was put into operation at Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Group Co., Ltd., with production capacity increased by 15%. Dalian COSCO Shipping Kawasaki Ship Engineering Co., Ltd. has automated and intelligently transformed the production line. The corresponding process production efficiency is increased by 40% to 400%, and the product construction cycle is shortened by 15% to 20%, ensuring the sustained and stable growth of corporate benefits.
In the first half of the year, the international new ship market demand shrank significantly, and new ship orders in major shipbuilding countries dropped significantly year-on-year. Facing the unfavorable situation of a significant increase in various international and domestic risk challenges and uncertainties, my country's major shipbuilding groups withstood the pressure and continued to play the role of "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" for central enterprises. Statistics show that from January to June, China State Shipbuilding Corporation, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, and China Ocean Shipping Group Co., Ltd. The three major shipbuilding indicators of China Merchants Group Co., Ltd., the four major state-owned enterprise groups, accounted for 58.9%, 56.4% and 62.2% of the national total respectively (completed, newly received, held). At present, the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity still exists. Under the combined effect of the market forcing mechanism and policy guidance, the strategic integration of state-owned enterprise groups is steadily advancing. China Merchants Industrial Group Co., Ltd. manages the Jinling Shipyard and Jiangdong Shipyard of China Changhang Shipping Group, Merger and integration of AVIC Weihai Shipyard, a subsidiary of AVIC Shipbuilding. CSSC is planning a strategic reorganization with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation.
In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, basically maintaining above 60 US dollars per barrel. The fundamentals of the offshore engineering equipment operation market have improved. my country's key offshore engineering equipment companies have closely followed market changes and adopted innovative financing and transaction models. They have adopted multiple measures of "leasing, transfer, sale, and joint marketing" to promote the "destocking" of idle offshore engineering equipment, resolve the risk of orders on hand, and achieved significant results. CSSC delivered a jack-up drilling platform. Resale of 1 wind power installation platform; China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation delivered 2 types of 3-seat jack-up operating platforms through financial leasing; China Merchants Industrial re-sold 2 jack-up drilling platforms and leased 2 jack-up drilling platforms; COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. delivered 1 semi-submersible accommodation platform, leased 1 drilling platform, and resold 5 offshore engineering auxiliary ships.
In the first half of the year, the regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) "Ballast Water Management Convention" and "Sulfur Emission Limitation Order" have led to explosive growth in the demand for modification of ship ballast water treatment system devices and ship exhaust gas treatment devices. The output value of single ship repairs has increased significantly year-on-year, and the dock utilization rate of key ship repair companies has exceeded 95%. Backbone ship repair companies have fully taken advantage of the market rebound to continuously improve high-end modification and repair capabilities, completing the first batch of 130 domestic ships. Thousand cubic meters of large LNG ship repair project, the world's first integrated modification project of lengthening and heightening of ultra-large container ships and the installation of desulfurization devices, the first domestic luxury cruise ship overhaul general contracting project, the world's first container ship LNG power system modification project of 10,000 boxes or more. The ultra-high-pressure water operation equipment of Zhoushan Wanbang Yongyue Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. has completely replaced the traditional sandblasting operation equipment, and has been applied to more than 300 ships, leading China's ship repair industry to usher in a new era of green ship repair. Statistics show that, From January to May, my country's ship repair enterprises above designated size achieved main business income of 7.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and realized profits of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550%.
In the first half of the year, affected by international trade frictions and geopolitics, major shipowners lacked confidence in economic growth, and the ordering of new ships showed a wait-and-see attitude. Global new ship orders ended two consecutive years of growth and fell far beyond expectations. Except for luxury cruise ships, orders for all major ship types fell sharply. my country's new orders in terms of deadweight tonnage were only 12.06 million deadweight tons, a new low since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. Affected by this, The number of orders held by my country's shipbuilding companies continues to decline, and most shipbuilding companies' production schedules can only be maintained until 2020. The vacancy rate of slipways (docks) has increased significantly in 2021. Some shipbuilding companies have a serious shortage of ships to start construction, and companies face severe challenges in continuous production.
At present, the world economic structure is changing, and the international shipping market demand is showing new characteristics. The market share of the three mainstream ship types is declining, and the demand for LNG ships and passenger ships (including luxury cruise ships) is increasing. Statistics show that from January to June, the global new order structure showed a new pattern in terms of revised gross tonnage, with bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships, LNG ships and passenger ships (including luxury cruise ships) accounting for 23.2% and 17.9% respectively. 10.3%, 20.4% and 16.4%. Europe firmly occupies the passenger ship (luxury cruise) market, and South Korea has a strong competitive advantage in the LNG ship and large container ship markets. In addition to maintaining certain advantages in the bulk carrier and feeder container ship markets, Chinese shipping companies receive fewer orders in the field of high-tech, high-value-added ships. Statistics show that my country's order-to-repair ratio (corrected gross tonnage/dwt) is only 0.33, Lower than South Korea's 0.39, the repair load ratio of European shipyards during the same period was 3.8. Problems such as the weak research and development capabilities of high-tech ships of key shipping companies, slow update speed, and the inability of research and development products to adapt to rapid market changes need to be solved urgently.
In the first half of the year, key shipbuilding companies reported that "difficulty in recruiting" and "expensive labor" have become major problems faced by companies. The loss of high-end talents in shipbuilding companies to other industries and the signs of labor shortages have become increasingly obvious. On the one hand, this round of international shipbuilding market adjustment cycle is too long, industry efficiency continues to be sluggish, and the attraction to high-end talents is weakened. There is a shortage of professional talents, especially senior managers, R&D designers and technology leaders; on the other hand, shipbuilding companies are mostly located in coastal and river areas. The labor intensity is high and the cost of living in the area is high. There are fewer and fewer young people willing to engage in the shipbuilding business. The overall age structure of front-line workers is aging. Due to the lack of systematic professional and technical training, the comprehensive quality of workers engaged in the shipbuilding business cannot meet the needs of shipbuilding companies. The shortage of labor, especially the serious shortage of professionally trained technical workers, has become a bottleneck hindering the development of the shipbuilding industry.
In 2019, affected by international trade frictions and geopolitical factors, global economic growth continues to be weak, and shipowners are becoming more cautious in ordering new ships. New demand for bulk carriers, oil tankers and large container ships is still sluggish, but demand for new ships for luxury cruise ships, LNG ships and feeder container ships is expected to remain active. It is predicted that the global new ship transaction volume in 2019 will be 5000 to 60 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be 90 million deadweight tons; the number of orders on hand at the end of the year is expected to remain at the level of 180 million deadweight tons. It is expected that in 2019, my country's shipbuilding completion volume will be about 36 million deadweight tons, the number of new orders will be basically the same as the previous year, and the number of orders on hand at the end of the year will remain at around 80 million deadweight tons.
At present, the international demand for new ships continues to be at a low level, and the structure of new ships is gradually shifting to high-tech, high-value-added ships. my country's new orders are still dominated by the three mainstream ship types, especially bulk carriers. There is still a certain gap between LNG ships and high-end offshore equipment and other high-tech, high-value-added products such as major competitors. Key shipping companies should continue to increase the research and development of "double-high" ship types, make efforts in intelligent manufacturing, prepare ship type technology reserves, and closely contact ship owners. Strengthen market development, break the competitive bottleneck of "double-high" ship types, and cultivate new advantages in market competition.
At present, environmental protection issues have received great attention both internationally and domestically, and "pollution prevention and control" is one of the three major battles proposed by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. With the steady growth of my country's demand for clean energy, LNG industry chains such as LNG carriers, LNG bunkering ships, and LNG receiving stations have opportunities for rapid development. It is recommended that relevant national departments combine the needs of the implementation of the national energy strategy and, on the one hand, coordinate the negotiation of natural gas source projects and accelerate the construction of its own natural gas fleet and ship equipment. Support capable shipping companies to carry out LNG ship construction and technology research and development. On the other hand, step up research and formulation of relevant specifications and standards for inland waterway shipping ships, accelerate the construction of inland waterway LNG filling stations, promote the upgrading of inland waterway shipping LNG ships, and stimulate domestic market demand.
At present, labor and employment issues have seriously affected the healthy development of the industry. Backbone enterprises should pay great attention to it. On the one hand, backbone shipping companies should strengthen the management of outsourced workers and cultivate a stable and efficient labor force by appropriately increasing the number of workers, improving workers' treatment, improving the working environment, and improving the worker skills training system. On the other hand, enterprises must continue to improve production efficiency, especially in the weak links of production and design. Hedging the adverse effects of labor shortage through information and intelligent means.