Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10169.html
In the first half of 2017, the volatility of the global shipping market intensified, international crude oil prices hovered at low levels, my country's shipbuilding completion volume increased significantly year-on-year, and the decline in new ship orders narrowed. However, the number of orders on hand continued to decline. The problems of financing difficulties, ship acceptance, and profitability have not been fundamentally solved. The stable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry still faces major challenges.
(1) Two of the three major shipbuilding indicators in the country fell and one increased.
In the first half of the year, the country's shipbuilding completed 26.54 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.4%. New ship orders were 11.51 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders on hand was 82.84 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%, and a decrease of 16.8% from the end of 2016.
In the first half of the year, the country completed 25.13 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year increase of 60.7%; the number of export ship orders undertaken was 10.15 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.1%; at the end of June, the number of export ship orders held was 76.71 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1%. Export ships accounted for 94.7% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders held. 88.2% and 92.6%.
From January to May 2017, my country's ship export value was US$11.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. Among my country's exports of ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$7.41 billion, accounting for 66.5% of total exports. my country's ship products are exported to more than 150 countries and regions, and Asia remains the main region for my country's ship exports. The value of my country's ship exports to Asia was US$4.99 billion, accounting for 44.8% of total exports; the value of ship exports to Europe was US$2.39 billion, accounting for 21.4%; the value of China's ship exports to Oceania was US$1.64 billion, accounting for 14.7%.
(3) The economic benefits of the shipping industry remain stable
From January to May 2017, there were 1,397 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size nationwide, achieving main business income of 296.6 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous year. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 144.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; the ship supporting industry was 38.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%; the ship repair industry was 9.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%; and the marine engineering special equipment manufacturing was 28.99 billion yuan. A year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.
The total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 10.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 6.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; the ship supporting industry was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; the ship repair industry was 260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153%; and the marine engineering special equipment manufacturing was 570 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.3%.
(4) The main economic indicators of key monitored enterprises have declined.
In the first half of the year, 53 key monitored shipbuilding companies completed shipbuilding of 23.17 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%. They undertook new ship orders of 10.41 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders in hand was 78.3 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%.
In the first half of the year, 53 key shipbuilding companies completed 22.01 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%; they undertook orders for export ships of 9.26 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33%; at the end of June, they held 72.82 million export ship orders, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%. Export ships accounted for 95% of the completions, new orders, and orders held by key shipbuilding companies, respectively. 89% and 93%.
In the first half of the year, the 80 key monitoring companies in the shipbuilding industry achieved a total industrial output value of 185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Among them, the ship manufacturing output value was 81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; the ship supporting output value was 12.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%; the ship repair output value was 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%.
In the first half of the year, the export output value of 80 key monitoring companies in the shipping industry was 73.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Among them, the ship manufacturing output value was 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; the ship supporting output value was 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; the ship repair output value was 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%.
In the first half of the year, 80 key monitoring companies in the shipping industry achieved main business income of 128 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; total profits were 980 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49%.
(1) The new shipbuilding market bottomed out and the decline stopped, and high-end ships were taken over in batches
In the first half of the year, the global new shipbuilding market showed signs of bottoming out, and the number of new ship orders increased. my country's key shipping companies seized the opportunity of the market rebound and actively explored the market, undertaking batches of 174,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, 84,000 cubic meters of very large gas carriers (VLGC), 115,000 tons of product oil tankers, 17.5,000 tons of chemical tankers, 15.5,000 tons of ro-ro cargo ships, 13 A number of orders for high-tech, high value-added ships such as thousand-ton deck transport ships and polar expedition cruise ships. In the first half of the year, my country received 4.63 million new ship orders with a revised gross tonnage, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, ranking first in the world. The new ship repair load ratio (corrected gross tonnage/dwt) reached 0.4, setting a new record high.
(2) Seize the opportunity and take proactive actions, resulting in a substantial increase in shipbuilding completions
In the first half of the year, my country's backbone shipping companies took advantage of the favorable opportunity of the improvement in the shipping market and took active actions to complete ship deliveries as soon as possible. The shipbuilding completion volume increased by more than 50% year-on-year. Mainstream ship types such as very large crude oil carriers (VLCC) and 64,000-ton bulk carriers were delivered in batches. The world's most advanced 6,000-ton riprap ship, the world's first 25,000-ton LNG high-pressure dual-fuel general cargo ship, and the world's largest 38,000 cubic meter ethylene carrier. The world's largest 21,000-ton cement carrier, the world's largest 19,000-ton passenger container ship, a cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading platform (FPSO), a semi-submersible marine ranch, a saturation diving support ship and other high-end ship types and marine engineering equipment were successfully delivered to shipowners. A 20,000-ton container ship was successfully undocked, an 85,000-cubic-meter ultra-large ethane ethylene carrier was constructed, and projects such as the world's largest unofficial hospital ship were advanced in an orderly manner.
(3) The pace of structural adjustment has accelerated, and transformation and upgrading have achieved remarkable results.
In the first half of the year, under the joint action of policy guidance and market mechanisms, my country's key enterprises actively carried out the development and application of special ships, deep-sea fishery breeding equipment, and deep-sea mineral resource development equipment, and achieved significant results in market segments. Qingdao Wuchang Shipbuilding Company undertook the construction of the world's first deep-sea semi-submersible large-scale intelligent fishery "Ocean Fishing Ground No. 1" and successfully delivered it; Yantai CIMC Raffles' independently designed and built ultra-deepwater twin-tower semi-submersible drilling platform "Blue Whale No. 1" helped my country's first successful trial production of natural gas hydrate (combustible ice) in the sea; AVIC Dingheng Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. ranked first in the world in terms of orders for small and medium-sized chemical tankers, and Jiangnan Shipbuilding Group's very large gas carrier (VLGC) Ranked second in the world in terms of orders held.
(4) Lean management reduces costs and takes multiple measures to improve efficiency
In the first half of the year, the international shipping market was still in a period of deep adjustment. Under the influence of supply-side structural reforms and market forcing mechanisms, key enterprises increased lean management, reduced costs, and took multiple measures to improve efficiency. CSSC Huangpu continued to carry out cost reduction and efficiency enhancement work. Through strict implementation of budget management, special cost management, and active procurement management and other measures to "cut off" costs, it reduced costs by more than 300 million yuan; Shandong Shipbuilding Heavy Industry implemented independent accounting for ship repair workshops. Promote the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of ship repair workshops, and the fixed material consumption costs of major workshops such as hulls are reduced by 18% compared with the standard. Backbone enterprises have solidly promoted the modern shipbuilding model and made every effort to promote efficiency improvement. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has continued to promote the use of production management system software (YSS), launching integrity and balanced rhythm production have been significantly improved, and shipbuilding efficiency has been continuously improved; AVIC Weihai Shipyard has established a modern shipbuilding model as the main line, optimizing the production process. The segment-free manufacturing rate of ships under construction reaches more than 90%, and the pre-outfitting completeness rate of partial segment construction is close to 100%.
(5) Stabilize the main shipping business and steadily develop diversified operations
In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding industry enterprises achieved a main business income of 296.6 billion yuan, which was basically the same as the previous year. While maintaining the main business of shipbuilding, key enterprises actively used existing equipment and facilities to carry out related businesses and strive to improve the profitability of shipyards. Remarkable results have been achieved in market development in non-shipping fields such as shield machines, land-based power stations, land-based environmental protection, offshore wind power/wind towers, bridge steel structures, etc. China State Shipbuilding Industry Corporation established CSSC Marine Power Technology Services Co., Ltd. to accelerate the company's transformation into a production and service-oriented company. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation established an innovative wind power leader through the restructuring of Offshore Wind Power Co., Ltd.
(6) The ship repair industry must adhere to self-discipline and guide the steady and healthy development of the industry
In the first half of the year, the China Shipping Association Ship Repair Branch actively promoted the publicity and implementation of the "China Ship Repair Quality Standards", promoted green ship repair, adhered to industry self-discipline, and guided the steady and healthy development of the ship repair industry. Zhoushan Xinya, Wanbang Yongyue and Longshan Shipyard achieved substantial growth in single-ship output value by optimizing product structures. Zhoushan Pacific Offshore Engineering undertook the repair of a 400,000-ton ore carrier (VLOC), A breakthrough in the repair of ultra-large ships in my country; COSCO Zhoushan Shipping successfully completed the emergency repair of the largest luxury cruise ship "Ovation of the Seas" undertaken by a Chinese shipyard.
(1) Financing difficulties and expensive financing are the main problems hindering the healthy development of the industry
Currently, the international shipping market is still in a period of deep adjustment. Lower new ship prices and delayed deliveries by shipowners have increased the liquidity gap of shipbuilding companies. However, financial institutions' credit policies for the shipbuilding industry have continued to tighten, and loan difficulties have continued to increase. Some companies have lost orders because they were unable to obtain bank guarantees in time. In the first half of the year, affected by factors such as "deleveraging" in the financial market, liquidity has experienced seasonal and structural tensions, and my country's ship buyer credit interest rates are higher than those in Japan and South Korea. Financing difficulties and expensive financing will increase the overall cost of my country's shipbuilding companies, reduce the company's international competitiveness, and hinder the healthy and stable development of the industry.
(2) The delivery of offshore engineering projects remains sluggish, and the risk of orders on hand has intensified
In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated at low levels. Although the production platform of the offshore engineering equipment market has rebounded, the delivery of offshore engineering equipment projects is still sluggish. The successive bankruptcies of internationally renowned offshore engineering operators have had a huge impact on the offshore engineering equipment construction market. The phenomenon of delayed delivery and abandonment of offshore engineering platform projects by shipbuilding companies has intensified, and the market environment continues to deteriorate. Statistics show that as of the end of June 2017, only 13 offshore engineering platforms of various types around the world had actually been delivered. The delivery ratio is less than 10% of the annual handheld orders that should be delivered. my country's shipbuilding companies have 80 offshore engineering platforms of various types, with a contract value of approximately US$12.3 billion. The delayed delivery of handheld offshore platforms not only takes up a large amount of working capital of shipbuilding companies, but also incurs a large amount of financial expenses and maintenance costs, which increases the additional costs of offshore engineering companies and affects their ability to continue operating.
(3) On-hand orders continue to decline, and continuous production faces challenges
In the first half of the year, global new ship orders were still at a low level. The number of newly accepted ships in my country was only 11.51 million in terms of deadweight tonnage, a year-on-year decrease of 29%. New orders were less than the completion volume for 13 consecutive months. Affected by this, the ship orders held by Chinese shipbuilding companies continued to decline. The production tasks of most shipbuilding companies can only be maintained until 2018. In 2019, the vacancy rate of slipways (docks) increased significantly, and some shipbuilding companies started construction with a serious shortage of ships. Enterprises' continuous production capabilities face severe challenges.
(4) Low-price competition still exists, and key shipbuilding companies are not increasing production and revenue at the same pace.
In the first half of the year, due to the continued transfer of some shipbuilding production capacity to the ship repair industry, the resumption of operation of some suspended construction plants, the resurrection of some "zombie" ship repair facilities and other social investment and market resource allocation, the production capacity of the ship repair market in 2017 increased to a certain extent, market competition became more intense, and the problem of low-price competition became more prominent. In addition, affected by factors such as the decline in the number of single ship projects and the decrease in refit ship projects, Although the dock utilization rate of key ship repair companies increased from 70% to 95%, and the number of completed ships increased by 27%, the total ship repair volume only increased by 4.9%, showing a trend of increasing production but failing to increase revenue at the same time.
In 2017, the global economic growth rate has picked up, and the demand for maritime trade has increased slightly. However, the overcapacity situation of the fleet has not been significantly alleviated, and the demand for new ships is still weak. Some market segments have begun to recover, and the market demand for product oil tankers, small and medium-sized chemical tankers, feeder container ships, liquefied gas carriers and special ships is large. It is predicted that the global new ship transaction volume in 2017 will be about 45 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be 110 million deadweight tons; the number of orders on hand is expected to remain at the level of 180 million deadweight tons. It is estimated that in 2017, my country's shipbuilding completion volume will be about 40 million deadweight tons, and the number of new ship orders is expected to increase compared with the previous year. By the end of the year, the number of ship orders on hand will drop to about 70 million deadweight tons.
1. Step up the implementation of national financial policies to support the development of the shipbuilding industry
Currently, the shipbuilding industry is in an important stage of getting out of the trough and undergoing transformation and upgrading. Financing capabilities have become a key factor for companies to compete for orders and are an important reflection of their competitiveness. It is recommended that financial institutions actively implement national policies to support the development of the shipbuilding industry, implement the service real economy, support the shipbuilding industry's strategic policy of going global, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry. Strictly implement differentiated credit policies and increase financing support for key shipbuilding companies with technical advantages and markets; continue to innovate financial service methods. Implement precise support.
2. Increase support for offshore engineering equipment construction companies
Currently, the price of offshore engineering platforms is at a historical low. It is recommended that relevant government departments study and introduce relevant plans, coordinate, encourage, and support state-owned offshore oil and gas development enterprises to acquire offshore engineering platforms that are under construction or have been basically built by key shipyards that may be delayed or canceled, and accelerate the implementation of the "Belt and Road" and "Marine Power" strategies. At the same time, provide credit insurance companies and banks with supportive policies to support export credit insurance extensions and loan extensions for sellers of ship export enterprises. Interest subsidy policies or low-interest loans are provided for deferred offshore loans.
3. Increase the publicity and implementation of new trends in international shipbuilding as well as new standards and regulations.
Currently, the global economy and maritime trade model are undergoing profound adjustments. Developed countries are promoting the return of advanced manufacturing. The concept of "local manufacturing, local consumption" is spreading to more industrialized countries. The consumption of renewable energy represented by photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation and nuclear power generation has experienced explosive growth, and the substitution effect of traditional fossil energy based on oil and coal is accelerating. In addition, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) continues to introduce global sulfur emission limit rules, EEDI rules, The entry into force of new standards and regulations such as the Ballast Water Convention will have a profound impact on the mid- to long-term development of the shipbuilding industry.
4. Accelerate the transformation and development of the ship repair industry and resolutely eliminate backward production capacity
It is recommended that ship repair enterprises should effectively implement "from Made in China to Created in China, from pursuit of speed to quality improvement, from product provision to casting brand", through changes in technological processes, vigorously improve their own technology and management level, and promote ship repair production capacity to a higher level; change business thinking, optimize product structure, and effectively develop high value-added ship repair and modification including offshore products. Ship repair enterprises should also further resolve excess production capacity, adjust existing assets, and through mergers and reorganizations with the support of relevant government departments. Reasonable productivity layout and speed up the pace of overcapacity reduction.