Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10158.html
In the first half of 2018, the global shipping market rose slightly, international crude oil prices continued to strengthen, and the global ship market continued the rebound momentum of last year. my country's new ship orders increased significantly year-on-year, shipbuilding completions declined year-on-year, and ship orders on hand stopped falling and rebounded. Problems of financing difficulties, ship delivery difficulties, and profitability difficulties still exist, and the stable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry still faces greater challenges. 1. Basic economic operation (1) Two of the three major shipbuilding indicators increased and one dropped in the first half of the year. The national shipbuilding completion rate was 18.86 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%. The number of new ship orders accepted was 22.7 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 97.2%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders on hand was 91.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. (2) Ship exports increased or decreased in the first half of the year, and the national completed export ships were 17.39 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.8%; the export ship orders received were 20.48 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 102%; the export ship orders on hand at the end of the year were 81.23 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Export ships accounted for 92.2%, 90.2% and 89.2% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders in hand respectively. (3) The economic benefits of the shipbuilding industry declined year-on-year From January to May, there were 1,210 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, with main business income of 194.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises were 78.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; ship supporting equipment manufacturing enterprises were 27.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; ship repair enterprises were 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; ship modification enterprises were 3.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39 billion yuan. A year-on-year increase of 8%; marine engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises were 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 4.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises were 930 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.8%; ship supporting equipment manufacturing enterprises were 890 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.2%; ship repair companies suffered a loss of 70 million yuan; ship modification companies were 200 million yuan, A year-on-year increase of 39.3%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises were 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117%. 2. Characteristics of economic operation (1) Focusing on advantages and high-end, product structure adjustment has achieved obvious results. In the first half of the year, my country's backbone shipping companies seized the strong opportunity of market recovery and continued to maintain their advantages in bulk carrier orders, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Jiangsu New Era, Shanghai Waigaoqiao, Qingdao Beizhou Shipbuilding and other units have taken orders for ore ships in batches; at the same time, new progress has been made in the high-end ship market such as 2,500-passenger luxury passenger ro-ro ships, 7,800-space ro-ro cargo ships, 84,000 cubic meters of ultra-large liquefied gas ships, 18.6,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering ships, and polar expedition cruise ships. Backbone enterprises focus on lean shipbuilding, strengthening the construction of management systems, 20,000 cubic meters of container ships, A number of high-tech, high value-added ships and offshore engineering projects such as an 8,000-space car roll-on ship and a 350,000-ton offshore floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPSO) were successfully delivered. (2) Continuously strengthen production management and do everything possible to reduce costs. In the first half of the year, the fierce market competition environment forced companies to strengthen production management and do everything possible to reduce costs. China State Shipbuilding Corporation studied and formulated the "CSSC "Cost Engineering" Implementation Plan" to clarify the hard task of cost reduction. Taking hard measures to reduce costs, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has solidly promoted the benchmarking of shipbuilding indicators through the "Model Transformation-Lean Shipbuilding" model, and the level of production management has continued to improve. Dalian COSCO Kawasaki has promoted intelligent manufacturing projects and strengthened production management and other measures. Main production indicators such as hull modeling rate, pre-outfitting rate, steel primary utilization rate and shipbuilding efficiency have reached the advanced level of Japan and South Korea. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Group has implemented lean management. Efforts were made to ensure the smooth delivery of the first product, optimize the process, shorten the docking cycle, and the shipbuilding completion volume increased by 27% year-on-year. (3) Mergers and reorganizations accelerated, and industrial concentration further increased. In the first half of the year, the ship market showed initial signs of recovery, but the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity still existed. Under the combined effect of the market forcing mechanism and policy guidance, my country's excess production capacity was further reduced. COSCO Shipping Group reduced shipbuilding capacity by more than 3.6 million deadweight tons, reducing 9 projects of offshore engineering capacity, China Merchants Group reduced shipbuilding capacity by 1.5 million; China State Shipbuilding Industry and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation continued to reduce excess production capacity by promoting the relocation of old factories, optimizing existing production capacity, mergers and reorganizations; CIMC Enric integrated Nantong Pacific Ocean Engineering, Xiamen Xiangyu acquired Nantong Mingde Heavy Industry, Qingdao Huatong Capital reorganized Qingdao Shipyard and other cross-industry and cross-regional projects. Cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations are accelerating; in the first half of the year, the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in my country's shipbuilding completion volume was 67.9%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points from the end of 2017; the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in new orders was 83.3%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the end of 2017, and the industrial concentration was further improved. (4) Breakthroughs in key equipment manufacturing were achieved, and independent design and research and development made progress in the first half of the year. my country's supporting enterprises continue to increase investment in scientific and technological research and development in response to market demand. A number of key equipment have been successfully manufactured and independent research and development has made new progress. Independent brands such as 6EX340EF ultra-long stroke low-speed diesel engine, ACD320DF dual-fuel marine medium-speed engine, CHD622V20 marine high-speed high-power diesel engine have gained market recognition; Qingdao Shuangrui has become the first in the world to obtain the new G8 type certification of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). my country's first commercial real-ship marine desulfurization and washing equipment was rolled off the production line and shipped, and the first domestic gas turbine generator set for offshore platforms was delivered; the ship's integrated electric propulsion system engineering technology development project achieved important results. 3. Problems in economic operation (1) The cost of raw materials has risen sharply, and the industry's profitability has dropped significantly. In the first half of the year, the price of marine steel continued to rise. At the end of June, the average monthly price of 20mm ship plates reached 4,850 yuan/ton. It has increased by more than 30% year-on-year. The continued rise in marine steel has put great pressure on the production and operation of shipbuilding companies. On the one hand, bulk carriers are the main ship type built in my country, and the price of steel accounts for more than 25% of the price of the whole ship. The rise in steel prices will directly affect the profit level of the company; on the other hand, the cost of building high-tech ships for companies is high, and even some ship types have suffered losses due to rising steel prices from the signing of the contract to the start of construction. In addition, labor, The rigid increase in logistics costs has put great pressure on corporate operations. Statistics show that the total profits of my country's shipbuilding enterprises fell by 67.8% year-on-year, and the main business income profit margin was only 1.2%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year. The industry's profitability has dropped significantly. (2) Financing difficulties have a greater impact on the production and operation of shipbuilding companies. Currently, the international shipping and shipbuilding market is beginning to show signs of recovery, but affected by external factors such as geopolitics and trade frictions, the foundation for recovery is not yet solid. Major domestic financial institutions are generally cautious about credit support for my country's shipbuilding industry. In order to avoid risks, some banks adopt a "one-size-fits-all" approach to shipbuilding enterprise financing and are unable to implement differentiated credit policies. In a sluggish market environment, the down payment for ships is only 5 to 10%. On the one hand, companies need to advance a large amount of funds to complete shipbuilding, and their reliance on financing is becoming stronger; on the other hand, they dare not accept orders because they cannot issue advance payment guarantees. Even if they receive orders, the order is not effective because the guarantee period is too long. The external living environment of shipbuilding companies is deteriorating rapidly. (3) The research and development capabilities of new ship types and new technologies need to be further improved. In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding companies responded quickly to the requirements for differentiated ship design. The construction of special ships and high value-added ship types was not competitive, and the problem of a relatively single ship product structure emerged. The main ship types undertaken are still bulk carriers, and there are few transactions for large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships, large container ships and other ship types. At present, most of the ships traded in the new ship market are small batches and multiple types of ships, which puts forward higher requirements for enterprises' design technology reserves, product development capabilities and ship type reserves. my country's shipbuilding companies need to further improve their design and research and development. (4) The offshore engineering operation market has recovered, but the construction market has not improved significantly in the first half of the year. Benefiting from the continued rise in international crude oil prices, the offshore engineering equipment operation market has recovered moderately, the second-hand offshore engineering market has been active in transactions, and the contradiction between oversupply and demand has further eased. However, due to the large scale of orders held, the demand for new construction in the offshore construction market is still limited in the short term, and equipment prices continue to be low. From January to June, a total of 36 units of various types of offshore engineering equipment were transacted globally, worth US$5.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23% in terms of value. On the other hand, the caution of shipowners and the active second-hand offshore market have caused difficulties in the delivery of offshore engineering equipment, and offshore engineering projects that cannot be delivered for a long time have put great pressure on corporate operations. 4. Market forecasts and recommendations (1) Forecast: In 2018, the global economy will still maintain a moderate recovery, and the demand for maritime trade will increase slightly. However, affected by international trade frictions and the implementation of new environmental regulations, shipowners’ demand for new ship orders has become more cautious. Some segmented ship types and new route new ship demand markets will continue to be active. It is predicted that the global new ship transaction volume in 2018 will be about 80 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be around 90 million deadweight tons; and the number of orders on hand is expected to remain at 190 million deadweight tonnage level. It is estimated that in 2018, my country's shipbuilding completion volume will be about 36 million deadweight tons, and the number of new ship orders is expected to increase compared with the previous year, and the number of ship orders held at the end of the year will remain at around 90 million deadweight tons. (2) Recommendation 1. Continue to increase financial support for strong shipbuilding companies. Currently, although the shipping and shipbuilding markets have not yet shaken off the downturn, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been fundamentally resolved, the new shipbuilding market has begun to rebound. A group of excellent and strong shipbuilding companies with high product technology and good management efficiency have outstanding performance. With the gradual recovery of the medium and long-term new ship market, these shipbuilding companies will be the forerunners in the high-quality development of my country's shipbuilding industry. It is recommended that my country's financial institutions continue to implement differentiated credit policies, establish dual communication mechanisms with strong and powerful shipbuilding companies, explore development and win-win cooperation models, and jointly achieve healthy and stable development of the shipbuilding industry. 2. Take multiple measures to implement the destocking of marine engineering equipment through the influence of national policies such as "One Belt, One Road". Actively cooperate with countries and regions along the route to jointly develop oil and gas resources, expand the demand for the use of marine engineering equipment, support qualified financial institutions to uniformly handle high-quality marine engineering equipment in the hands of enterprises through financial leasing or sales, and operate in a timely manner according to market changes to resolve risks on hand. 3. Establish the concept of green development and promote the high-quality development of the shipbuilding industry. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that in the next three years, we must focus on preventing and resolving major risks and accurately alleviating poverty. In the three major battles against pollution, the country has successively issued policy documents such as the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War" and the "Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Ship Pollution to the Marine Environment". At present, the country's requirements for environmental protection are increasing day by day, and the intensity of supervision is increasing day by day. The entire industry should have a clear understanding of this, continue to strengthen research on new technologies and new processes, improve technical strength and management levels, establish green development concepts, and promote high-quality development of the shipbuilding industry. 4, Actively expand new horizons in shipbuilding and offshore engineering, and strive to improve their own competitiveness. Currently, the international new shipbuilding market is fiercely competitive, new ship prices have sluggishly rebounded, comprehensive costs have risen rigidly, and the profitability of shipbuilding companies has dropped significantly. Facing the severe external environment, my country's shipbuilding companies must continue to do technological innovation, improve management, cost control, improve quality and efficiency, etc., and at the same time actively broaden their horizons and pay close attention to the needs of offshore wind power, offshore ranching, offshore tourism and seabed mining. Cultivate new economic growth points and strive to improve our own competitiveness.