Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10192.html
In the first half of 2015, affected by the downturn in the global shipping market and the continued decline in oil prices, my country's new ship orders fell sharply, and the offshore engineering equipment market shrank significantly. Problems such as difficulty in ship delivery, financing, profitability, and transformation are still prominent. In the face of fierce international market competition, government departments have given full support, and the entire industry has faced difficulties. Backbone shipyards have accelerated the pace of transformation and upgrading to ensure the steady development of the shipbuilding industry.
From January to June, the country's shipbuilding completed 18.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. New ship orders were 11.19 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 72.6%. At the end of June, the number of ship orders on hand was 138.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, and a decrease of 7.6% from the end of 2014.
From January to June, the total industrial output value of 88 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry was 205.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. Among them, the ship manufacturing output value was 98.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%; the ship supporting output value was 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; the ship repair output value was 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.
From January to May, there were 1,442 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, achieving main business income of 290.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Among them, shipbuilding companies were 154.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. Ship supporting companies were 36.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Ship repair companies were 7.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%.
From January to May, the total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 8.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises were 4.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%. Ship supporting enterprises were 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%. Ship repair companies were 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%.
From January to June, 88 key monitoring companies achieved main business income of 141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; total profits were 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%.
From January to June, the country completed 16.71 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; the export ship orders received were 9.33 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6%; at the end of June, the number of export ship orders in hand was 131.17 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. Export ships accounted for 90.2% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 83.4% and 95%.
From January to May, my country's ship exports reached US$12.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. Among my country's exports of ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$6.71 billion, accounting for 52.6% of total exports. my country's ship products are exported to 170 countries and regions, of which the export value of ships to Asia is US$8.29 billion, accounting for 65%.
(1) The country has intensively introduced relevant policies, and the shipbuilding industry has ushered in new opportunities.
In the first half of the year, the State Council issued "Made in China 2025", which listed marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships as one of the ten key development areas, and issued supporting documents such as "Several Opinions on Accelerating the Cultivation of New Competitive Advantages in Foreign Trade" and "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Cooperation in International Production Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing", requiring the strengthening of the comprehensive competitive advantages of the shipbuilding and other equipment manufacturing industry and the export of large complete sets of equipment. The People's Bank of China and other nine ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for the Shipbuilding Industry to Accelerate Structural Adjustment and Promote Transformation and Upgrading." The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Issuance of Special Bonds for Strategic Emerging Industries," the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work on the Insurance Compensation Mechanism for the First (Set) of Major Technical Equipment," and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued documents such as the "2015 Special Action for Deep Development of Military-Civil Integration." These policies have played an important role in stabilizing the healthy development of the shipbuilding industry and have brought new opportunities for the shipbuilding industry to enter the "3.0 Era."
(2) Rapid improvement of innovation capabilities, batch acceptance of double-high products
In the first half of the year, my country's backbone shipbuilding enterprises actively adjusted their structures, changed their development methods, continued to be driven by innovation, and worked hard to stabilize production and ensure ship delivery. In the first half of the year, they delivered the world's largest 8,500-space car ro-ro ship, the country's first 30,000 cubic meter liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship, and the world's second-largest 72,000-ton semi-submersible ship. At the same time, my country's largest container capacity of 18,000TEU container ship successfully trialled, and the world's largest independent cargo tank type 37 The 1,000-ton asphalt ship was successfully launched. We undertook batches of high-tech, high-value-added ships such as 10,000-ton container ships, very large crude oil carriers (VLCCs), 7,800-space car ro-ro ships, and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered passenger ro-ro ships. The repair-to-load ratio of new ship orders reached 0.369. In the field of offshore construction, we delivered the world's first semi-submersible cylindrical marine living platform and Asia's first LNG-powered full-rotation work ship. The country’s first deep-water environmental protection ship, the world’s largest 12,000-ton crane ship was assembled and commissioned, and the world’s first R-550D self-elevating platform was undocking.
(3) Competition in the international market is fierce, and key enterprises are bucking the trend and making efforts
In the first half of the year, the international shipping market continued to be sluggish, and the new ship market fell sharply. The global new ship transaction volume was 36.94 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%. However, my country's backbone shipbuilding enterprises have highlighted their advantages in the face of adversity. They worked hard to do a good job as shipowners, successfully completed ship deliveries, vigorously developed new ship types, seized orders from the international market, and took the lead in the fierce market competition. The top 10 companies in the country in terms of shipbuilding completion volume, Accounting for 57.5% of the national share, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from the end of 2014; the top 10 companies that received new ship orders accounted for 75.4% of the national share, an increase of nearly 20 percentage points from the end of 2014.
(4) Leading indicators have bottomed out and the economy is expected to stabilize
In the first half of the year, the world economy recovered slowly, and my country's economy achieved a moderate and stable trend, with a positive trend. The Baltic Dry Bulk (BDI) index rose by 35.8% in June. In the second quarter, my country's new ship orders picked up month-on-month. The decline in total shipbuilding industry profits narrowed compared with the beginning of the year. The main leading indicators bottomed out and fluctuated at low levels. With the continuation of the old ship dismantling policy, Affected by favorable factors such as the increasing demand for replacement of inland river ships, the economic operation of my country's shipbuilding industry is expected to stabilize and recover.
(5) The pace of transformation and upgrading is accelerating, and intelligent manufacturing is vigorously developing
The pace of transformation and upgrading of my country's shipbuilding industry is accelerating, prompting shipbuilding to develop in the direction of intelligent design, intelligent products, refined management and information integration. On the other hand, my country's labor costs have risen rigidly, and its advantages compared with Japan and South Korea have gradually disappeared. Under the dual effects of policy guidance and market pressure, some domestic backbone shipyards such as Nantong COSCO Kawasaki Shipbuilding Engineering Co., Ltd., Jiangsu New Era Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., CSSC Chengxi (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. are cutting, welding, Robots are widely used in shipbuilding processes such as painting, which greatly improves production efficiency, improves shipbuilding accuracy, reduces production costs, and improves corporate competitiveness. Intelligent manufacturing has become an inevitable path for the transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry.
(1) Difficulty in receiving orders, international market share declined for the first time
Although the current international new ship market is stimulated by the downturn in oil prices, which has led to an increase in oil tanker trading volume, and container ship orders have also rebounded with the impact of the U.S. economic recovery, the BDI index is still sluggish, and bulk carrier trading volume has dropped significantly. Affected by this, my country's shipbuilding industry, which mainly undertakes bulk carriers, has seen a sharp decline in new orders from January to June. According to statistics from the British Clarkson Company, my country's new ship acceptance volume in the first half of the year was only 7.56 million deadweight tons, accounting for 20.5% of the world market share, ranking second in the world. According to industry association statistics, it is 11.19 million tons, accounting for approximately 27.6% of the world market share. The international market share has declined for the first time since the financial crisis.
(2) Transformation is difficult, and structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading have a long way to go.
The new ship market was relatively sluggish in the first half of the year. In terms of orders for ultra-large container ships and oil tankers, Korean shipbuilding companies relied on their technical advantages to undertake a large number of orders. For orders for bulk carriers, Japanese shipyards took advantage of the depreciation of the local currency to compete with my country for orders. Faced with strong competition from Japanese and Korean companies, my country's shipbuilding industry has a long way to go to accelerate structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and improve its ability to create and develop markets.
(3) Financing difficulties remain the biggest difficulty facing the industry
The shipping industry is a capital-intensive industry. The demand in the shipping market is sluggish, the price of new ships has fallen, and the proportion of first-payments has dropped, which has brought huge financing needs to shipbuilding companies. The state supports the development of the shipbuilding industry, and nine ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Structural Adjustment of the Shipbuilding Industry to Promote Transformation and Upgrading," but it will take time for the relevant policies to be implemented. Since this year, the industry's financing difficulties and expensive financing have not been greatly improved, and the cash flow of many backbone shipping companies in the industry has been tense. As a result, many orders were lost.
(4) It is difficult to make profits, which affects the sustainable and healthy development of the industry
Since the financial crisis, the overcapacity in the shipping market has further intensified, and the price of new ships has remained low for a long time. However, the labor costs of shipping companies have risen rigidly, the RMB exchange rate has been strong, and the cost of purchasing supporting equipment has remained high; shipowners have delayed receiving ships and modified contract orders, which has increased corporate management costs; in addition, the proportion of shipowners' advance payments has declined, corporate working capital loan costs have been high, accounts receivable have increased significantly, and corporate operating cash flow balances have continued to decrease. Statistics show that from January to May 2015, The industry-wide accounts receivable amounted to 89.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; interest expenses were 3.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.
(5) Delivery difficulties have become a prominent problem in the industry.
The global economic recovery is slow, and the international shipping market and new ship market are still in a stage of deep adjustment. Affected by the plummeting international crude oil prices, shipowners are not very enthusiastic about ordering energy-saving and environmentally friendly ships in the past few years. The phenomenon of converting bulk carriers into oil tanker orders occurs frequently. The risk of modifying ship contracts, delaying delivery or even canceling orders is gradually increasing, causing shipbuilding companies to adjust their production plans, disrupt production rhythms, and increase management costs. The entire industry delivered 18.53 million deadweight tons in the first half of the year. This is 43% of the 43 million deadweight tons expected to be delivered this year by the end of 2014. There are many difficulties in completing the delivery tasks as planned throughout the year.
(6) The risk of default on offshore engineering projects under construction increases
In the first half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated at low levels, and the offshore engineering equipment manufacturing and operating market continued to be sluggish, with large oil companies cutting investment funds. The global transaction volume of various types of offshore engineering equipment was US$4.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 81.8%. Among the orders undertaken by my country's offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies during the period of high oil prices in the previous two years, many were orders for shipowners without leases, and the risk of abandoning orders was high, especially for projects under construction that will be delivered in 2015 and 2016. In addition, due to the low down payment ratio of offshore engineering projects, shipbuilding companies are constantly faced with shipowners' design modifications, delays in major equipment procurement, delays in accepting equipment and cancellation of orders, which has put greater pressure on the company's production technology preparation, resource allocation, construction efficiency, quality control, etc.
The global economic situation in 2015 is complex, but the overall trend is improving. The U.S. economic recovery is slowing down, the European economy is expected to recover with the easing of the Greek crisis, the Chinese economy has entered a new normal, the Japanese economy continues to maintain a moderate recovery, and the Indian economy is developing rapidly. These factors will have a positive impact on the global shipping market.
However, there is excess capacity in the shipping market, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been fundamentally resolved. The BDI index is at a low level, and it is difficult for the bulk carrier market to improve significantly; orders for large container ships will fall, and there is still a certain demand in the feeder container ship market; the current oil price is still low in the short term, and the oil tanker market is relatively good. It is predicted that for the whole year, the global new ship transaction volume will be about 7000 to 80 million deadweight tons; the shipbuilding completion volume will be around 100 million deadweight tons; the number of orders on hand is expected to remain at the level of 300 million deadweight tons. It is expected that my country's shipbuilding completion volume for the whole year will be 4,000 to 45 million deadweight tons, and the number of new orders is expected to reach 2,000 to 25 million deadweight tons. The number of orders on hand by the end of the year will drop to 130 million deadweight tons.
1. Continuation of special industrial policies to avoid a policy vacuum period
2015 is the last year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the shipbuilding industry, and is also the last year of the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry." The policies issued by the state have effectively ensured that the shipbuilding industry can survive the crisis smoothly during the shipbuilding market crisis, and have played positive results in improving the level of innovation, promoting structural adjustment, promoting transformation and upgrading, expanding domestic demand, and resolving overcapacity. However, the shipbuilding industry is still at a low point, and international competition is extremely fierce. It is recommended that the relevant national departments should continue to implement some effective policies before the new plan is introduced, and speed up the implementation of some policies that have not yet been implemented.
2. The financial industry needs to effectively increase support for key enterprises
At present, the international shipping market is undergoing deep adjustment and industry development is facing huge challenges. Financial institutions should use the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for the Shipbuilding Industry to Accelerate Structural Adjustment and Promote Transformation and Upgrading" as a guideline to effectively increase support for the shipbuilding industry and implement supporting policies. Financing support should be increased for key shipbuilding companies with good production and operation conditions and good development potential in the industry. It is necessary to further expand the scale of policy loans and effectively increase credit to ship export sellers and buyers. Appropriately provide medium and long-term loan balances to shipping companies, strive to reduce loan interest rates, and ensure reasonable funding needs of shipping companies.
3. Further increase support for structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading
At present, the ship market is undergoing deep adjustment and the survival of enterprises is facing huge challenges. Relevant parties should continue to increase support for the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the industry structure. Increase investment support for the research and development of green, environmentally friendly, high-tech ship types, offshore engineering equipment and supporting equipment that comply with new conventions, new norms, and new standards; increase investment support for the transformation of enterprise production process processes and capacity building for the specialization of high-tech ships, offshore engineering equipment, and marine equipment; increase investment support for enterprises to achieve mergers and reorganizations and debt restructuring, Provide policy and financial support in terms of personnel diversion and asset integration to help enterprises successfully survive the crisis and promote transformation and upgrading.
In the context of the downturn in the international market, it is recommended that relevant national departments increase investment in expanding domestic demand. my country's three major oil and gas companies are encouraged to cooperate with the needs of the country's "South China Sea Development" and "One Belt, One Road" strategies to increase the customization of my country's offshore oil and gas equipment; continue to increase the new demand for maritime surveillance, fishery and other administrative law enforcement vessels, improve rescue, and upgrade the salvage vessels, Improve the equipment level of offshore fishing vessels; implement the development and engineering requirements for deep-sea space stations and large floating structures mentioned in "Made in China 2025" to promote the stable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry.
At present, the risk of default on orders for handheld marine engineering equipment in my country has increased significantly, but many Chinese shipbuilding companies have not been in the transition to offshore engineering equipment manufacturing for a long time and have insufficient crisis handling capabilities. To this end, each offshore engineering equipment company must increase the review of contract terms, closely monitor the status of handheld orders, strengthen communication with shipowners, strengthen the tracking of shipowners' performance, formulate order risk plans, and reduce losses caused by shipowners' breach of contract. In addition, companies must strictly enforce production management disciplines and improve project management capabilities. Ensure products are delivered on time.