Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/10208.html
From January to March 2014, affected by factors such as the bottoming out of the global economy, the implementation of various state policies to support the shipbuilding industry one by one, and shipowners increasing efforts to dismantle old and build new ones in order to optimize ship types, my country's shipbuilding industry gradually emerged from the predicament and showed signs of recovery. This was reflected in the fact that new shipbuilding orders and handheld ship orders continued to grow based on the substantial growth in 2013, ship exports stabilized and rebounded, and various economic indicators stabilized and achieved year-on-year growth.
From January to March, the country's shipbuilding completed 7.43 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%. New ship orders were 25.84 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 170%. At the end of March, the number of ship orders on hand was 148.68 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and an increase of 13.5% from the end of 2013.
From January to March, the country completed 6.94 million deadweight tons of export ships, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%; the export ship orders received were 24.78 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 183%; at the end of March, the number of export ship orders held was 139.61 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 52.6%. Export ships accounted for 93.4% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders held, respectively. 95.9% and 93.9%, an increase of 10.5, 4.3 and 8.4 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.
March. The international shipping market shipping composite index was 11,798 US dollars/day at the beginning of the month, and fell to 11,553 US dollars/day at the end of the month, a slight decrease of 2.1%. After a substantial adjustment in January and February, the dry bulk freight index BDI returned to 1,522 points at the end of March, an increase of 6.7% from the beginning of the month.
Since June 2013, the Clarkson New Ship Price Index has stabilized and shown an upward trend, and continued to rise into 2014. In March, the Clarkson New Ship Price Index continued to rise for 10 consecutive months, and was reported at 137 points at the end of the month, 1 point higher than the beginning of the month.
Since February, in order to further implement the "Implementation Plan" and other relevant regulations, relevant national ministries and commissions have successively issued the "Measures for the Management of Special Funds for Central Financial Subsidies for the Scraping and Renewal of Old Transport Vessels and Single-Hull Oil Tankers" and the "Notice on Adjusting the Import Tax Policy for Major Technical Equipment". The introduction of these two policies has boosted the confidence of domestic shipping companies and increased the efforts of domestic shipowners to dismantle old ones and build new ones. In the first quarter, China Ocean Shipping (Group) Corporation ordered new ships 1.47 million deadweight tons, Sinotrans & CSC Group has 670 thousand deadweight tons, Shandong Landbridge Group has 320 thousand deadweight tons, China Merchants Heavy Industry Group has ordered 250 thousand deadweight tons. There are mainly 14000TEU, 9400TEU container ship orders, 320 thousand ton ore ships and 64 thousand ton bulk carrier orders. With the gradual implementation of various policies in the "Implementation Plan" and the gradual recovery of the market, The shipbuilding industry is expected to get out of the trough, and the marine equipment industry is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
Although the export output value of the shipbuilding industry has been in a declining range since 2013, it has begun to rebound since January 2014, and the rebound in export output value is consistent with the new export ship order index since June 2013, indicating that export demand in the shipbuilding industry has stabilized and rebounded. Statistics show that from January to March, 87 key monitoring companies in the shipbuilding industry completed an export output value of 36.8 billion yuan. A year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, the ship manufacturing output value was 24.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; the ship supporting output value was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; the ship repair output value was 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.
From January to March, in addition to the shipbuilding completion of 54 key monitored shipbuilding companies of 6.94 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%, the new ship orders and on-hand ship orders were 2,436 and 143.42 million deadweight tons respectively, a significant increase of 158% and 42.9% year-on-year.
From January to March, 87 key monitoring companies in the shipbuilding industry completed a total industrial output value of 86.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In terms of industries, due to the low base and accelerated export growth in the same period last year, the shipbuilding output value was 42.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%; the ship supporting output value was 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; affected by the recovery of the ship repair market, the ship repair output value rebounded significantly. It was 2.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%.
From January to March, 87 key monitoring companies in the shipping industry achieved main business income of 59.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; total profits were 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and the decline narrowed by 50.3 percentage points.
In 2014, in order to implement the spirit of the "Implementation Plan" to adjust and optimize the productivity layout of the shipbuilding industry, some enterprise groups actively carried out mergers and reorganizations through various methods to integrate resources, optimize the industrial layout, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry.
CSSC Chengxi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. of China State Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has signed slip leasing agreements with Jiangsu Hongqiang Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., Huatai Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Zhoushan Changhong International Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. to promote the optimization and reorganization of industry assets.
Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (Group) Co., Ltd. holds 67% of the shares of Jiangsu Qidong Dauda Heavy Industry through capital increase, becoming the largest shareholder of Daoda Heavy Industry. It has integrated its shipbuilding assets, adjusted its offshore engineering layout, and received an order for 2+2 jack-up drilling platforms in February. Pacific Shipbuilding Group Co., Ltd. has successively integrated, utilized, and revitalized the surplus shipbuilding facilities and other resources of surrounding shipbuilding companies to expand rigid and flexible production capacity. This forms a reasonable allocation between rigid production capacity and flexible production capacity.
Since the second half of 2013, European financial institutions represented by Greece and Germany have changed their attitude towards risk assessment of the ship financing market. The international ship financing market has picked up, and the financial tension has begun to ease. At the same time, some fund companies in the United States have also begun to buy the ship market at the bottom. At the same time, extremely low ship prices, the market share required by major ship owners, the country's strategic needs, green ships that meet environmental protection requirements are constantly being launched, and a large number of old ships are being phased out in advance. Expectations for a future pick-up in the shipping market have also strengthened the determination of mainstream shipowners to place orders, and the first-payment ratio and ship price of newly ordered ships have increased. Major domestic financial institutions have also begun to adjust their ship financing strategies. On the premise of strictly controlling risks, they have increased their support for the financing of key shipping companies and signed syndicate agreements with some large shipping companies. However, the overall financing situation in the industry is still not optimistic, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The association hopes that my country's financial institutions can seize the opportunity. Further increase financing for key shipbuilding companies and promote the structural adjustment, transformation, upgrading and sustainable development of the shipbuilding industry.
Since the second half of 2013, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has continued to appreciate rapidly, which is an important factor restricting the competitiveness of my country's export ships. Starting from February 2014, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has continued to fall, ending the trend of continued unilateral appreciation. In the first quarter, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell by 1,641 basis points, depreciating by 2.64%. The depreciation of the RMB is conducive to improving the price competitiveness of shipyards in receiving marketing orders. Increase the exchange earnings of enterprises that build and export ships. However, there is a certain lag in the exchange rate transmission mechanism, and the benefits of shipbuilding enterprises from the depreciation of the RMB are still limited.
There is an obvious trend of new ship orders concentrating on advantageous enterprises. my country's key enterprises have seized the favorable opportunity of market recovery, actively developed markets through independent innovation, and expanded market share. In 2013, my country's top 20 enterprises received new orders totaling 55.86 million deadweight tons, accounting for 80% of the national total. The concentration ratio of the top 10 enterprises also increased by 3.8 percentage points compared with 2012. Among the top 10 companies receiving new orders in the world, my country has changed from 2 to 4, and among the top 20, my country has reached 10. From January to March this year, 18 companies in my country received new orders of more than 100,000 tons, and the proportion of new orders exceeded 96%, which was an increase of 7 companies and 3 percentage points respectively compared with last year.
From January to March 2014, although my country undertook new ship orders of more than 25 million deadweight tons, the three major ship types still accounted for the largest proportion. Benefiting from the implementation of the U.S. approval of LNG export projects and the impact of the U.S. "shale gas revolution" in the LPG ship market, most orders were obtained by Korean and Japanese companies. In the first three months, the global new ship market totaled 6 large LNG ships and 28 very large gas carriers (VLGC). orders, but only Jiangnan Shipbuilding (Group) Co., Ltd., a Chinese shipbuilding company, has undertaken an 83,000 cubic meter very large gas carrier (VLGC). Chinese shipbuilding companies still have many challenges and difficulties in the research and development of "double-height ship types" and in accepting orders.
The frequent introduction of new international shipbuilding regulations has put forward higher requirements for ship and offshore engineering supporting technologies. Internationally, green, environmentally friendly, energy-saving and emission-reducing, safe, reliable, intelligent, integrated ships and offshore engineering supporting products are constantly emerging, and the upgrading speed is significantly accelerated. Developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union have adjusted their development strategies, increased technology research and development, and strengthened the blockade of my country's technology. my country's ship supporting industry has weak independent research and development capabilities, and long-term dependence on the introduction and import of key equipment and systems. Compared with Japan and South Korea, The localization rate is at a low level. The development trend of the international shipbuilding supporting industry and the competitive strategies of advantaged countries have brought severe challenges to my country's shipbuilding supporting industry, which is at a disadvantage. To build a shipbuilding and offshore engineering power, the development of the supporting industry is urgent.
After experiencing prosperity in the first 3 to 4 years, the offshore engineering equipment market has entered a market adjustment period in the past two years. Against this background, the drilling platform leasing market is under pressure, with rents and utilization rates showing a downward trend. At the same time, as oil companies reduce the number of new leases, construction orders for deepwater drilling platforms with leases have also dropped significantly. The offshore engineering equipment industry is a multi-disciplinary knowledge-intensive, high-investment, high-risk, single-piece production industry, with high entry barriers. But in recent years, due to the depression in the ship market, Many shipbuilding companies in my country have transitioned into the offshore engineering market, but the orders received are too concentrated on jack-up drilling platforms. When the offshore engineering equipment market is under pressure to adjust, my country's offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies face increased risks.
As the offshore engineering equipment market has entered a period of adjustment from prosperity, some shipbuilding powers have begun to adjust their market business strategies this year. In the past, they mainly undertook high-end ships and offshore engineering equipment, and adjusted to simultaneously compete for the market in double-high ships and the three mainstream ship fields. Data shows that in the first three months of this year, the order volume of South Korea's bulk carriers and oil tankers was significantly higher than in previous years, putting greater pressure on the orders of Chinese shipbuilding companies.
In 2014, experts predict that with the mild recovery of the world economy, the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping market will be alleviated. Judging from the delivery time of handheld orders, the world's shipbuilding completion volume will still decrease in 2014 and 2015, which will help ease the pressure on shipping supply. However, with the gradual recovery of the world economy and the implementation of the global policy of phasing out and updating old ships one by one, it is expected that the global new ship transaction volume will still remain at around 100 million deadweight tons.
Since the financial crisis, with the downturn in the world ship market and the work of my country's shipbuilding enterprises to resolve serious overcapacity, the shipbuilding capacity utilization rate of my country's shipbuilding industry has dropped from about 85% in 2011 to about 75% and 65% in 2012 and 2013. It is expected that in 2014 and 2015, because my country's completed ships will still be at a low level, the capacity utilization rate will not improve significantly. However, with the substantial growth of new orders in the past two years, the implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Standard Conditions for the Shipbuilding Industry", and the implementation of national policies to resolve serious overcapacity one by one, in the next 2 to 3 years, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase to about 80%, entering a relatively normal state of industry development.