Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/18896.html
In the first half of 2023, my country's shipbuilding industry maintained a good momentum of development. The three major indicators of shipbuilding achieved comprehensive growth, the international market share maintained a global lead, transformation and upgrading achieved obvious results, and industry revenue and profits continued to rebound. However, the growth rate of the world economy has slowed down, and the international shipping market has experienced periodic adjustments. The shipbuilding industry still faces many challenges in maintaining stable and healthy development.
From January to June, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 21.13 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; the number of new orders received was 37.67 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%. As of the end of June, the number of orders on hand was 123.77 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%.
From January to June, the national export ship completion volume was 17.88 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; the number of new orders received was 35 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 71.2%. At the end of June, the number of orders on hand was 114.86 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. Export ships accounted for 84.6% of the national shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and handheld orders in the same period. 92.9% and 92.8%.
According to customs statistics, from January to June, my country's ship exports amounted to US$11.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships and gas carriers still dominate, accounting for a total export volume of 61.3%. Among them, bulk carriers accounted for 26.5%, container ships accounted for 22%, oil tankers accounted for 6.8%, and gas carriers accounted for 6%.
From January to June, 1,176 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved main business income of 276.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%; total profits were 9.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187.3%.
From January to June, my country's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and holding orders accounted for 49.6%, 72.6%, and 53.2% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage, an increase of 2.3, 17.4, and 4.2 percentage points respectively from the end of 2022. In terms of revised total tonnage, China's shipbuilding completion volume accounted for 47.3%, 67.2%, and 46.8%, and its international market share ranked first in the world. The concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of shipbuilding completion volume is 67.9%, the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of new orders received is 61.3%, and the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of orders on hand is 62.0%. There are 5, 7, and 5 shipbuilding companies in my country respectively ranking among the top 10 in the world for shipbuilding completion, new orders, and orders on hand. China State Shipbuilding Corporation ranks first among all shipbuilding enterprise groups in the world in three major shipbuilding indicators.
In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding companies seized the opportunity of the rotation of the new ship market, consolidated the dominant position of mainstream ship types, and achieved new breakthroughs in the segmented ship market. Seizing the favorable opportunity when the oil tanker market resumed its upward trend, it undertook new orders for Suezmax, Aframax and MR oil tankers with a deadweight tonnage of 11.448 million. Accounting for 74.6% of the global total of ships of the same type; new orders for bulk carriers and container ships accounted for 88.4% and 55.6% of the global total respectively. 43 new car carrier orders were accepted, accounting for 97.7% of the global total. All 4 new orders for 93,000 cubic meters of very large liquid ammonia carriers (VLAC) were accepted in the new ship market. 14 new large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships were accepted. Accounting for 35% of the global total, the market share has further increased.
In the first half of the year, the number of high-tech, high value-added ships built and delivered in my country increased significantly. A total of 88 container ships were delivered in batches, with a revised gross tonnage of 2.751 million, accounting for 37% of domestic shipbuilding completions, surpassing bulk carriers to rank first. 11 of the world's largest 24,000TEU container ships were successfully delivered, accounting for 84.6% of the global market share. New results were achieved in the construction of gas carriers, with the delivery of China's first 40 thousand cubic meter medium-sized fully cooled liquefied gas carrier, the world's largest shallow water channel 80 thousand cubic meter LNG carrier, 22,000 cubic meter very large ethylene carrier (VLEC) and a new generation of 174,000 cubic meter LNG carrier, etc. The world's first M350 floating production, storage and offloading ship (FPSO), the first "universal" FPSO with self-propelled capability, The first intelligent FPSO "Offshore Oil 123" and other offshore engineering equipment were successfully delivered. The first domestic large-scale cruise ship "Aida·Modu" was successfully undocked.
In the first half of the year, new progress was made in the development of my country's key ship supporting products. The X92DF series LNG dual-fuel marine engines were delivered in batches; the first domestic X92 large marine low-speed engine crankshaft forgings were delivered; the domestic marine diesel engine electronic control system was successfully developed; the first domestic LNG tappet crane completed factory testing. Important breakthroughs were made in the research and development of new energy products, and the world's first ammonia/diesel dual direct injection two-stroke engine principle prototype was approved in principle (AIP) by a classification society Certificate, the independently developed 500 kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell monitoring system and safety system (electrical equipment) obtained the marine product certificate issued by the classification society.
In the first half of the year, key shipbuilding companies seized favorable market opportunities, strengthened production management and cost control, and significantly improved operational quality and economic benefits. Statistics show that from January to June, the main business profit margin of key monitoring shipbuilding companies reached 4.1%, reaching the best level in the past 10 years. At the same time, the ship market environment factors generally showed favorable changes. The global new shipbuilding market demand is strong, and the Clarkson New Ship Price Comprehensive Index maintained growth, reaching 170.9 points at the end of June. An increase of 5.6% from the beginning of the year. At the end of June, the 6mm and 20mm specification steel plates for ships were 4,850 yuan/ton and 4,457 yuan/ton respectively, which was about 1,300 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year. The RMB continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar at the end of June depreciated by 4.6% compared with the beginning of the year.
In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding companies were full of orders, and new construction and ship deliveries showed an increasing trend. In the second quarter, my country's average monthly completion volume was nearly 4 million deadweight tons, which is at a historically high level. Currently, backbone shipbuilding companies have heavy production tasks, work overtime, and increase cross-operations, resulting in increased safety production risks. Especially in the recent period when high temperatures, heavy rains, typhoons and other disastrous weather are frequent, key companies and major projects, The pressure on production safety in key links continues to increase.
In the first half of the year, the number of new orders increased significantly, and the average production guarantee coefficient (orders on hand/average of completions in the past three years) of key shipbuilding companies was about 3.2 years, and the delivery date of some companies has been scheduled to 2027. As the number of high-tech ships of shipbuilding companies increases, the pace of production tasks accelerates, and the demand for skilled labor increases rapidly, especially the demand for assemblers and welders. In addition, the backbone shipbuilding companies are looking for industry leading talents and high-level talents. The demand for professional and technical talents is becoming increasingly urgent. The contradiction between insufficient labor resources and the demand for high-quality development of the industry has become more prominent.
In the first half of the year, with the substantial increase in new ship orders from my country's shipbuilding companies, the demand for some imported ship supporting products has increased significantly. However, the production and supply capacity of foreign supporting companies is limited, resulting in a lag in the supply of some key equipment, which has affected the construction progress, especially supporting equipment related to marine main engines, and parts delays are more obvious. With the rapid growth of orders for LNG dual-fuel powered ships, the supply of related low-temperature supporting equipment is tight, making it difficult to meet shipbuilding needs, and delays and price increases occur frequently.
In the first half of the year, as the new shipbuilding market remained active and new ship prices rose, the supply of shipbuilding slots further tightened. Some shipbuilding companies (production lines) that had been shut down in the early stage were reactivated and joined the market to accept orders. Shipbuilding production capacity showed signs of growth. However, the global shipping market has experienced phased adjustments. The Clarkson Comprehensive Freight Index fell 30% at the end of June compared with the beginning of the year. All factors of the new shipbuilding market are at historically high levels, and the uncertainty of market fluctuations is increasing. If shipbuilding production capacity grows too fast, it will further exacerbate market risks.
In the second half of the year, the world economic recovery will still face many challenges, and the international shipping market will continue to be in a downward adjustment range. With the introduction of the "2023 International Maritime Organization Ship Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategy", it will promote the global shipping industry and shipbuilding industry to accelerate the decarbonization and emission reduction process, which will have a positive effect on the new shipbuilding market. It is expected that the global shipbuilding completion volume will remain at a high level of 90 million deadweight tons in 2023, and the number of new ship orders will exceed 100 million deadweight tons. The number of orders on hand remains at about 220 million deadweight tons. my country's shipbuilding completion volume will exceed 42 million deadweight tons, the number of new ship orders exceeds 50 million deadweight tons, and the number of ship orders on hand remains about 120 million deadweight tons.
Currently, shipbuilding production tasks are arduous, and safety production risks have further increased. All shipbuilding companies must attach great importance to fully implementing the main responsibility for safety production, strengthening full-process safety production management, ensuring the orderly advancement of production, effectively ensuring the safety of employees, guarding the bottom line of safety production, resolutely curbing the occurrence of various safety accidents, and creating a safe, harmonious, and stable situation for the high-quality development of the industry.
At present, building a safe and stable industrial chain supply chain has become the key to improving the competitiveness of the shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment industry. We should further give full play to the leadership of large enterprises, build an industrial development ecology in which large and medium-sized enterprises are interdependent and mutually reinforcing, and simultaneously strengthen the construction of local supporting and international collaboration systems to promote the integrated and innovative development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, as well as the integrated innovation and development of large, medium and small enterprises.
Currently, the decarbonization process of international shipping and shipbuilding is accelerating, which is forcing the shipping industry to accelerate green transformation. Shipbuilding companies need to continue to improve green design and green manufacturing capabilities, further increase the intensity of "intelligent transformation to digital transformation", study and propose solutions for industry decarbonization, digitalization and intelligent development, strengthen the design of forward-looking low-carbon, zero-carbon ship types, and further increase the research and development of zero/net-zero emission fuel, power technology and equipment.