Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/18506.html
The 2022 China Shipbuilding Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index (CCI) is 764 points, reaching the highest point in the past 10 years, an increase of 22 points compared with 2021, and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil and natural gas rose rapidly, and the international shipping market remained active, driving leading indicators such as the Clarkson Comprehensive Freight Index and New Ship Price Index to increase year-on-year. Ship orders held by key shipbuilding companies increased year-on-year but declined slightly month-on-month. The CCI index increased year-on-year, but fell slightly month-on-month.
In the second quarter, the international shipping market remained active, with the Clarkson Comprehensive Freight Index reaching a new high since 2009. The new ship price index increased by 16.5% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month, driving the leading indicators to rise simultaneously. However, the domestic epidemic spread in many places, especially in April and May, where breakpoints and blockages occurred in some areas, which had a greater impact on key shipbuilding companies. Ship production declined significantly, dragging down the concurrent indicators. The rise in leading indicators partially offset the decline in concurrent indicators, and the CCI index fell slightly.
In the third quarter, there was a correction in the international shipping market. The Clarkson Comprehensive Freight Index fell 15.5% from the second quarter, dragging down the leading indicators. As domestic production and logistics breakpoints were cleared, the production of shipbuilding companies increased significantly, driving the concurrent indicators to rise. At the same time, the price of marine steel fell, the RMB exchange rate fell against the US dollar, and the profitability of shipbuilding companies improved. The rise in the concurrent indicators covered the decline in the leading indicators, and the CCI index rebounded.
In the fourth quarter, the international shipping market fell back from its highs, and the new ship price index stagnated. However, the number of new ship orders increased month-on-month. The focus was to monitor that shipbuilding companies had sufficient orders on hand, full production tasks, and production capacity utilization was at a good level. At the end of the year, the CCI rebounded to 764 points, the highest level since 2012.
Looking forward to 2023, the world economy will face greater downward pressure, economic growth will continue to be low, and the global shipping and new shipbuilding markets will see reasonable fluctuations, but the demand for new ships will not shrink significantly, and shipbuilding companies will maintain sufficient orders on hand. Based on comprehensive analysis, the CCI will remain within the normal range in 2023.
Leading indicators: focus on monitoring the number of ship orders held by shipbuilding companies, new ship price index and comprehensive freight index; concurrent indicators: focus on monitoring shipbuilding companies' capacity utilization, main business income and operating profit margin; lagging indicators: growth rate of global fleet ownership.
Figure China Shipbuilding Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index (Annual)
Figure China Shipbuilding Capacity Utilization Monitoring Index (Quarterly)