Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/17230.html
In 2021, the world economy is recovering unevenly, the international shipping market is showing a positive trend, and the global new shipbuilding market has rebounded beyond expectations. my country's three major shipbuilding indicators have achieved comprehensive growth, the international market share has maintained a leading position, the green transformation and development of ships has accelerated, and the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain has been improved, achieving a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan". However, the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain. Under the pressure of insufficient labor resources and excessively rapid rise in comprehensive costs, the shipbuilding industry still faces greater challenges in maintaining stable and healthy development.
In 2021, national shipbuilding completed 39.7 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. New ship orders were accepted for 67.07 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 131.8%. At the end of December, the number of ship orders on hand was 95.84 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%.
The number of completed export ships nationwide was 35.93 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; the number of export ship orders received was 59.36 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 142.8%; at the end of December, the number of export ship orders in hand was 84.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%. Export ships accounted for 90.5% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 88.5% and 88.2%.
From January to November 2021, there were 1,093 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, achieving main business income of 425.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises were 262.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; ship supporting enterprises were 73.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; ship repair enterprises were 25.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. A year-on-year decrease of 9.6%; ship modification enterprises 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises 54.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%; navigation equipment and other floating device manufacturing enterprises 440 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%.
From January to November 2021, the total profit of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size was 7.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%. Among them, shipbuilding companies were 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; ship supporting companies were 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%; ship repair companies were 1.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%; ship modification companies were 410 million yuan, A year-on-year decrease of 7.9%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises turned losses into profits to 1.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase; navigation equipment and other floating device manufacturing enterprises reached 10 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.
From January to November 2021, my country's ship export value was US$22.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$12.83 billion, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. Ship products are exported to 187 countries and regions, mainly in Asia. my country's exports to Asia, Europe, The value of Latin American ships exported was US$11.6 billion, US$4.6 billion and US$1.3 billion respectively.
In 2021, my country's three major shipbuilding indicators remain the world's leading, and the growth rate of new orders is more than 20 percentage points higher than the world. Shipbuilding completions, new orders, and orders on hand accounted for 47.2%, 53.8%, and 47.6% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage, respectively, an increase of 4.1, 5.0, and 2.9 percentage points respectively compared with 2020. The international competitiveness of key enterprises has been enhanced. Six companies each entered the top 10 in the world in terms of shipbuilding completions, new orders and orders on hand. For the first time, the three major shipbuilding indicators of China State Shipbuilding Corporation ranked first among shipbuilding enterprise groups in the world.
In 2021, my country's shipping companies seized the opportunity of the market rebound and consolidated their dominant position in bulk carriers. They undertook a total of 32.19 million deadweight tons of bulk carriers, accounting for 76.4% of the global total. Container ship orders exceeded that, and they undertook a total of 27.38 million deadweight tons of container ships, accounting for 60.9% of the global total. Among them, there were 69 ultra-large container ships of 15,000 standard units (TEU) and above. Accounting for 49.6% of the global share. It continues to make efforts in the high-end ship segment market, undertaking orders for chemical tankers, car carriers, offshore auxiliary ships and multi-purpose ships, accounting for 72.7%, 76.6%, 64.7% and 63.3% of the global total in terms of deadweight tonnage respectively. Among the 18 major ship types in the world, 10 of my country's ship types rank first in the world in terms of new orders.
In 2021, in order to comply with the global green and low-carbon transformation trend, my country's shipping companies accelerated the pace of technological innovation and launched multiple green ship types that meet the requirements of the latest international maritime regulations. Green-powered ships accounted for 24.4% of new orders received throughout the year. 23,000TEU dual-fuel container ships, 5,000 cubic meters dual-fuel fully pressurized liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers, and 99,000 cubic meters ultra-large ethane carriers were successfully delivered to shipowners. Orders for 210,000-ton LNG-powered bulk carriers, 7,000-car dual-fuel car carriers, methanol-powered dual-fuel MR oil tankers and other orders have been accepted in batches. Shipping companies have actively responded to the national call for "peak carbon neutrality", practiced the concept of green development, and continued to promote the construction of green shipyards. Backbone shipbuilding companies in major shipbuilding areas have successively adopted devices such as rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation, high-power energy storage power stations and energy-saving facilities, and have achieved significant results in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. Comprehensive energy consumption will be reduced by 5-10 percentage points annually.
In 2021, my country's offshore LNG industry chain has added important assets. The country's first 174,000 cubic meter floating liquefied natural gas storage and regasification unit (LNG-FSRU) and the world's largest 20,000 cubic meter LNG transport and bunkering ship were successfully delivered. The world's latest generation "Changheng Series" 174,000 LNG carriers were certified by four international classification societies. The research and development of new ship types has reached a new level, ammonia fuel-powered ultra-large oil tankers, 93 Thousand cubic meters of ultra-large green ammonia transport ship, the first domestic marine ammonia fuel gas supply system and other research and development work are progressing in an orderly manner. The development of domestic large-scale cruise ship projects has made positive progress, and the first large-scale cruise ship has successfully achieved the milestone of floating in the dock. The new generation of high-end Yangtze River cruise ship "Yangtze River No. 3" was officially delivered for use.
In 2021, my country has made new progress in the development of ship supporting products, and some projects have achieved batch shipment. The world's smallest bore marine low-speed dual-fuel engine (Otto cycle) engine, B-type cargo tank cargo containment system, ultra-large underwater hydraulic windlass, R6-level marine mooring chain and other projects and products have been industrialized; the world's first integrated airborne selective catalytic reduction system (SCR) can meet the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Phase 3 (Tier Ⅲ) The CX52 marine low-speed diesel engine with emission requirements was successfully released and implemented for shipping. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, some foreign supporting products were unable to arrive at the factory on time. Domestic final assembly companies actively cooperated with supporting companies to actively carry out product substitution, installation and commissioning work, ensuring the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
In 2021, facing intense and busy production tasks, shipbuilding companies worked hard to overcome many unfavorable factors such as domestic and foreign epidemics, high temperatures, typhoons, power cuts and production restrictions, and paid close attention to the implementation of large-scale shipbuilding plans, compressed key construction cycles, and improved shipbuilding efficiency. The typical shipbuilding cycle of domestic backbone shipyards has greatly improved, and the construction cycles of very large crude oil carriers (VLCC) and 23,000TEU dual-fuel container ships have been shortened by 20.7% and 21.8% respectively. The delivery rate of key engineering projects and the on-time implementation rate of key projects reached 100%, and more than one-third of the 50 key monitored shipbuilding companies completed their annual delivery tasks ahead of schedule.
In 2021, new ship orders have increased significantly and production tasks are full, which has increased the demand for skilled labor in backbone shipyards, exacerbating the problem of labor shortage. In particular, the mobility of skilled workers in key types of work such as electric welding has increased significantly, increasing the instability of safe production. In addition, as shipyards in various countries are accelerating the green transformation and development of ship products, the number of high-tech leading talents, R&D designers and professional technical personnel in the design departments and research institutes of my country's shipbuilding companies is obviously insufficient. It is difficult to launch new products that lead the market in a timely manner, and the contradiction between insufficient labor resources and the development needs of shipbuilding companies is still prominent.
In 2021, international commodity prices fluctuated violently, driving raw material prices to continue to rise. The main specifications of shipbuilding plates, cables, paints and other marine supplies increased by 14%, 20% and 50% respectively from the beginning of the year. Key marine supporting equipment such as marine main engines, crankshafts, propellers, etc. generally increased by about 25%. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar throughout the year fluctuated slightly in both directions, with a slight appreciation of 2.3%, and the cumulative appreciation in the two years exceeded 8%. Under the double squeeze of the overall rise in raw material prices and the appreciation of the RMB, the profit margins of shipbuilding companies have shrunk significantly. The total profit for the year was only 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. The main income profit margin was only 0.6%, which formed a huge contrast with the upstream steel industry and the downstream shipping industry.
In 2021, due to the continued impact of the epidemic at home and abroad, the logistics cost and transportation cycle of imported marine main engines and key supporting equipment have increased significantly, and the transportation time is on average 20-30 days longer than before the epidemic. Last year, regional epidemics occurred in China, and power outages and power restrictions in some areas had a greater impact on some supporting equipment companies. The supply of key parts such as marine outfitting parts, large castings and forgings, pistons, etc. was tight, and the average delivery was delayed by about 15 days, which put greater pressure on shipyards to deliver on time. In addition, business exchanges and communication, equipment installation and commissioning, ship trial delivery and other activities are difficult to carry out normally due to difficulties in the entry of foreign personnel, which brings great challenges to the production and operation of enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022, uncertainty about the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the world economy still exists, and the external environment has become more complex and severe. However, the confidence of the shipping and shipbuilding industries has been significantly boosted. Coupled with the imminent entry into force of new international maritime environmental protection regulations and the market opportunities brought by decarbonization needs, it is expected that the global demand for new shipbuilding will not shrink significantly in 2022, and the transaction volume will be around 90 million deadweight tons. In 2022, my country's shipbuilding completion volume is expected to exceed 40 million. The volume of new orders will decrease to a certain extent.
In 2021, with the substantial growth of new ship orders and corporate production tasks being full, the production guarantee coefficient of our shipping companies (on-hand orders/average completion volume in the past three years) is about 2.55 years, and 2022-2023 will be the peak year for concentrated ship deliveries. It is recommended that shipping companies strictly implement normalized epidemic prevention and control measures, and make procurement plans for steel and supporting products as early as possible to avoid delays in raw materials, equipment, etc. affecting ship delivery. To track and judge the changes in the RMB exchange rate and steel price trends, we must establish a risk-neutral concept and adopt methods such as locking foreign exchange and signing long-term supply contracts to hedge risks. We must pay close attention to matching the rapid growth of workload with labor resources to avoid major safety production problems.
At present, the global shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment market has entered a new round of upward cycle. my country is at a key node in moving from a large shipbuilding country to a powerful shipbuilding country. The demand for high-tech talents is increasingly urgent. However, my country's labor and employment situation can no longer meet the needs of the rapid development of shipbuilding companies. It is recommended that relevant government departments implement the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Modern Vocational Education" and the spirit of the "14th Five-Year Plan Vocational Skills Training Plan" to further increase support for the development of vocational education in the shipbuilding industry. Actively promote in-depth cooperation between schools and enterprises, improve the evaluation system for skilled talents, revise the vocational education college/undergraduate syllabus, improve the career development channels for skilled talents, cultivate more high-quality technical and skilled talents, and provide strong talent and skills support for my country to build a strong shipbuilding country.
The "14th Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals 2035" and relevant national departments and local governments have issued relevant special plans, which clearly pointed out the development direction and focus of the shipbuilding and offshore engineering equipment industry. It is recommended that industry associations, research institutions, etc. continue to track and sort out industry support policies and increase policy interpretation. Strengthen the research and judgment of market demand trends, pay close attention to the development of upstream and downstream industries such as trade, shipping, and steel, and increase the exchange rate. Research on the impact of interest rates, taxes and fees on the shipping industry provides support for corporate production and operations, healthy industry development and policy decisions.