Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/17932.html
In the first half of 2022, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and with the strong support of government departments at all levels, my country's shipbuilding industry calmly responded to the many challenges brought about by the changes of the century and the epidemic of the century. The entire industry worked hard, showed strong resilience and vitality, and maintained a good development momentum. my country's international market share of the three major shipbuilding indicators continued to lead, high-end ship types made new breakthroughs, major local breakpoints and blockages were basically cleared, production gradually returned to normal, and industry revenue and profits increased. However, maintaining steady growth throughout the year still faces severe challenges.
From January to June, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 18.5 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 64.2%. The number of new orders was 22.46 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.3%, and a significant month-on-month increase of 107%. The number of orders held at the end of the year increased by 7.2%.
From January to June, the national export ship completion volume was 15.81 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9%; the number of new orders received was 20.44 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.2%. At the end of June, the number of orders on hand was 91.13 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. Export ships accounted for 85.5% of the national shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and handheld orders in the same period. 91% and 88.7%.
According to customs statistics, from January to June, my country's ship exports amounted to US$10.43 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers, container ships and gas ships still dominate, with a total export volume accounting for 68.2%. Among them, bulk carriers accounted for 28.9%, container ships accounted for 18.9%, oil tankers accounted for 14.5%, and gas ships accounted for 5.9%.
From January to June, 75 key monitoring shipbuilding companies achieved main business income of 130.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; total profits were 2.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.2%. The loss area of enterprises decreased, and the number of loss-making enterprises dropped from 18 in the same period last year to 14.
In the first half of the year, my country's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and holding orders accounted for 45.2%, 50.8%, and 47.8% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage, and 42.0%, 47.7%, and 41.5% in terms of corrected total tonnage. The international market share ranked first in the world. The industrial concentration of leading companies has basically remained stable, and the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of shipbuilding completion volume is 70.9%. The concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of new orders received was 68.3%, and the concentration ratio of the top 10 companies in terms of orders in hand was 66.5%. The performance of lower-end companies was more outstanding. In the first half of the year, there were 40 companies with new orders exceeding 50,000 deadweight tons, 10 more than the same period last year.
In the first half of the year, my country undertook 30 new large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships of 174,000 cubic meters, accounting for 32.6% of the global total, making a major breakthrough. The trend of new ship orders is obvious, and the repair load ratio (corrected gross tonnage/dwt tonnage) reached 0.49, which is at the best level in history. The product structure has been further optimized, and new orders are based on revised gross tonnage, including container ships, gas ships, Bulk carriers and oil tankers accounted for 30.9%, 30.7%, 21.8% and 6.5% respectively. Green power has been fully applied in mainstream ship types. In addition to container ships, the world's first LNG-powered 318,000-ton very large oil tanker, 209,000-ton Capesize bulk carrier and other green ships were completed and delivered. From January to June, the proportion of green power ships in new orders was increased from 2021 to 2021. 24.4% quickly increased to 44.8%.
In the first half of the year, due to the unavailability of some imported ancillary products due to the epidemic, it was forced to promote the application of domestic marine ancillary products. High-performance marine butterfly valves and ship stabilizers have been replaced by domestic products. The loading rate of domestic ancillary equipment such as medium and high-speed diesel engines, generator sets, marine boilers, marine cranes, and marine gas supply systems (FGSS) has increased significantly. The level of localization of high-end marine steel has been significantly improved, and all crack arrest plates for large container ships have been replaced by domestic products. The localization rate of duplex stainless steel for chemical ships has increased from less than 50% to more than 90%.
In the first half of the year, international oil prices fluctuated at high levels, and the spot price of Brent international crude oil surged 53.1% from the beginning of the year, driving the recovery of the offshore oil and gas equipment market and creating favorable conditions for the "destocking" of my country's offshore engineering equipment companies. A total of 1 jack-up drilling platform, 1 semi-submersible auxiliary drilling platform and 6 offshore engineering auxiliary ships were delivered. Ships and offshore engineering equipment companies are actively exploring areas such as offshore wind power, offshore photovoltaics, and offshore fishery equipment. China’s first deep-sea offshore wind power construction ship and the world’s first 100,000-ton large-scale aquaculture work ship have been delivered, and the construction of pile-based fixed offshore photovoltaic projects in Shandong Province is progressing in an orderly manner.
In the first half of the year, Jiangnan Shipbuilding, a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, completed the joint debugging tests of the automatic processing unit for profile welding surface primer and the intelligent chamfering unit for free edges of parts. Huangpu Wenchong's Zhongzhu vertical welding robot, laser hybrid welding and other intelligent new tooling were put into use. Thirteen companies including Nantong COSCO Shipping Kawasaki, a subsidiary of COSCO Shipping Group, completed the acceptance of 58 items of intelligent manufacturing projects such as segmented-stage all-position automatic welding equipment. The intelligent manufacturing center of China Merchants Industrial Haimen Base under China Merchants Group has been put into operation, and four shipyards will complete distributed photovoltaic grid-connected power generation within the year. Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Group has created a digital management platform covering materials, production, quality, process and engineering methods, etc., further expanded the scale of new rooftop photovoltaic power generation, and transformed existing high-energy-consuming air compressor rooms into energy-saving smart air compressor stations.
In the first half of the year, the efficiency of shipping companies improved, and some external factors changed in a favorable direction. The price of marine steel plates fell by about 500 yuan/ton year-on-year, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated against the US dollar by about 5%. However, related adverse effects still exist, and the price of marine equipment generally increased. Affected by imported crankshafts, chips and other parts, the price of marine low-speed machines increased by about 20% compared with the end of last year, and the procurement cycle was extended from the original 10 months to more than 20 months. The price of marine paint has increased by 20%-30%, and the price of industrial electricity has increased by about 10% year-on-year. Affected by the local epidemic, some companies' logistics and transportation costs and epidemic prevention and disinfection expenses have increased significantly. The situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits of shipping companies is difficult to fundamentally reverse in a short time.
In the first half of the year, shipping companies overcame the impact of the epidemic, adopted a closed management approach, and paid close attention to production planning and scheduling. The construction efficiency of key shipbuilding companies continued to improve, and the key cycle of each company's main ship type was shortened by 5%-20%, which effectively guaranteed the ship delivery on schedule. However, international exchanges are still greatly restricted, and international shipowners, crews, service engineers, etc. cannot be in place in time, affecting the equipment installation, commissioning, sea trials and delivery of export ships under construction. At the same time, Various international business visits and market promotion activities are difficult to take place, technical and business exchanges cannot be carried out normally, and contract negotiations for potential export ship projects are progressing slowly.
In the first half of the year, domestic backbone shipbuilding enterprises generally had full production tasks, and the production guarantee coefficient (number of orders in hand/average annual completions in the past three years) averaged 2.68 years, and some enterprises exceeded 3 years, increasing the demand for skilled workers. Currently, enterprises are fully resuming work and production, and are working overtime to make up for the construction period delayed due to the epidemic in the first half of the year. The demand gap for skilled workers such as welders continues to expand. The spread of the epidemic at multiple points in the country has led to a significant increase in the labor turnover rate of shipping companies, and the problem of unstable labor teams has become more prominent in the first half of the year. At the same time, corporate labor costs and the cost of maintaining a stable labor team have increased significantly.
Currently, the domestic and international environment facing the development of the shipbuilding industry is still very complex, with increasing uncertainties. It is recommended that shipbuilding companies should be prepared for continued high costs, plan in advance and take countermeasures, adhere to the concept of risk neutrality, strengthen the formation of stable and healthy cooperative relationships with the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and lock in the cost of major raw materials such as steel and control the risk of exchange rate changes by signing long-term purchase agreements with steel companies and signing forward exchange settlement agreements with financial institutions. Strive to increase revenue and profits under the overall market recovery situation.
Currently, most shipping companies are full of orders and have heavy production tasks. With the epidemic hindering the smooth operation of the industrial and supply chains, it is recommended that shipping companies should focus on dealing with issues caused by uncertainty, make plans in advance and take effective measures to prevent delays in arrival and reduced logistics efficiency from affecting production progress, ensure that ships with orders in hand are delivered on time, and avoid major performance risks. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the research and judgment of the shipping and shipbuilding market situation, and grasp major signs and trends. Make early warning forecasts in advance.
Currently, in the context of the global response to climate change, new international low-carbon regulations for ships are constantly upgrading, the shipping industry's carbon peak has reached its peak, the carbon neutrality schedule and roadmap have gradually become clearer, and orders for green-powered ships have shown explosive growth, fully expanding to the three major mainstream ship types such as container ships, oil tankers, and bulk carriers. It is recommended that shipping companies should accelerate the research and development and innovation of green ship technology and seize new opportunities for the development of green ships.
In recent years, due to various factors, the labor shortage of shipping companies has shown a long-term development trend and has become an important constraint on development. It is recommended that relevant government departments in key regions pay great attention to this. It is recommended that key shipping companies actively explore and reform the existing employment model, and maintain a relatively stable team of skilled workers through measures such as appropriately increasing the number of workers, improving worker remuneration, and improving the working environment. At the same time, based on the existing foundation and conditions of the company, steadily promote the application of intelligent manufacturing technology, improve production efficiency, and alleviate the problem of long-term labor shortage.