Issuing agency: China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry
Column: run analysis
source: https://www.cansi.org.cn/cms/document/15636.html
In 2020, my country's shipping industry resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and scientifically coordinated epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production. The international market share of the three major shipbuilding indicators remained leading, the transformation and upgrading of ship products was obvious, the repair industry achieved great growth, new offshore engineering equipment developed rapidly, and the main production and operation indicators were completed better than expected. However, due to the global spread of the new crown epidemic, the slowdown in the recovery of the world economy, insufficient demand in the shipbuilding market, and the rapid rise in production costs, my country's shipbuilding industry still faces severe challenges in maintaining stable and healthy development.
In 2020, the country's shipbuilding completed 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. New ship orders received were 28.93 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. At the end of December, the number of ship orders on hand was 71.11 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%.
The number of completed export ships nationwide was 34.25 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; the export ship orders received were 24.45 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; at the end of December, the number of export ship orders in hand was 65.21 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%. Export ships accounted for 88.9% of the national shipbuilding completions, new orders, and held orders respectively. 84.5% and 91.7%.
In 2020, there were 1,043 shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size in the country, achieving main business income of 436.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises were 302.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; ship supporting enterprises were 49.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; ship repair enterprises were 29.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; ship modification enterprises were 3.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.93 billion yuan. A year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; ship dismantling enterprises 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.1%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises 43.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; navigation equipment and other floating device manufacturing enterprises 520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%.
The total profits of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size were 4.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%. Among them, ship manufacturing enterprises were 930 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.3%; ship supporting enterprises were 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.3%; ship repair enterprises were 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13x; ship modification enterprises were 480 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%; ship dismantling enterprises were 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13x. A year-on-year decrease of 41.7%; offshore engineering equipment manufacturing companies lost 420 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73 billion yuan; navigation equipment and other floating device manufacturing companies lost 20 million yuan, the same as the previous year.
In 2020, my country's ship export value was US$21.7 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. Among exported ship products, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships still dominate, with a total export value of US$9.98 billion, accounting for 51.4% of total exports. Ship products are exported to 184 countries and regions, mainly in Asia. The amount of my country's ship exports to Asia, Europe, and Latin America was US$12.3 billion respectively. US$3.36 billion and US$2.58 billion.
The shipping industry coordinates and promotes normalized epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production, and takes multiple measures to deal with difficulties in resuming work and production. At the end of April 2020, the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, and my country's shipbuilding industry enterprises fully resumed work and production, with a production rate of 98%, and the production order basically returned to normal. Shipping companies use information technology and new technologies such as "5G+AR" to innovatively use "cloud inspection", "cloud delivery", "cloud signing" and "cloud release" and other working methods. Ensure normal production, ensure that existing orders are effective, and actively explore new markets. In the face of severe situations and huge difficulties, the entire industry has withstood the test, and the completion of major production and operation indicators throughout the year was better than expected.
In 2020, the global new ship transaction volume dropped sharply by 30% year-on-year, and the transaction value of the offshore engineering market dropped by 25% year-on-year. my country's international market share of shipbuilding and offshore engineering remains the world's leading, with shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and orders on hand accounting for 43.1%, 48.8%, and 44.7% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tonnage respectively; my country undertook 25 ships/seat of various types of offshore engineering equipment, worth 2.04 billion U.S. dollars. It accounts for 35.5% of the global market share. The industry concentration remains at a high level. The top 10 companies in terms of shipbuilding completions account for 70.6% of the country. The top 10 companies in new ship orders account for 74.2% of the country. The top 10 companies in hand-held ship orders account for 68%. The competitiveness of leading companies has further improved, with 5, 6 and 6 companies respectively entering the top 10 in the world in terms of shipbuilding completions, new orders and hand-held orders.
In 2020, my country's high-tech ship research and development and construction achieved new breakthroughs. The 23,000TEU dual-fuel powered ultra-large container ship, the energy-saving and environmentally friendly 300,000-ton very large crude oil carrier (VLCC), the 18,600 cubic meter LNG bunkering ship, the large luxury ro-ro passenger ship "China Fuxing", etc. were successfully delivered; it undertook the world's largest 24,000TEU container ship, 174,000 cubic meter liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship, The 190,000-ton dual-fuel bulk carrier and the 93,000-square-meter fully-cooled very large liquefied petroleum gas carrier (VLGC) have received batch orders. The first domestically produced 135.5,000-ton large-scale cruise ship has entered the fast lane of construction and has begun continuous loading in the dock. The full-sea deep manned submersible "Struggle" successfully completed the 10,000-meter sea trial and returned successfully.
In 2020, the 100,000-ton deepwater semi-submersible production and oil storage platform "Deep Sea No. 1" and the medium-deep water semi-submersible drilling platform "Deep Blue Exploration" were successfully delivered. The floating production, storage and offloading oil vessel (FPSO) hull and upper module construction project was steadily advanced, and the "Blue Whale 2" semi-submersible drilling platform successfully completed the trial mining task of combustible ice in the South China Sea. Offshore equipment manufacturing companies seized the golden period of offshore wind power development. Actively undertaking wind power installation ships, offshore wind farm operation and maintenance ships, offshore wind power project jackets, offshore booster station construction and other projects, while actively promoting the "destocking" of offshore engineering equipment, the operating situation has improved. The rapid development of deep-sea fishery breeding equipment, the world's largest salmon ship-type breeding cage, the world's first side-opening aquaculture work vessel, the first domestic intelligent marine treasure breeding cage and other equipment have been delivered, 100 The construction of a thousand-ton smart fishery large-scale breeding vessel has begun.
In 2020, my country's shipping companies actively explored the domestic market, deepened cooperation with domestic financial shipowners and domestic trade transport shipowners, jointly seized market development opportunities, and achieved good results. They successively signed new ship orders of 7.25 million deadweight tons with Bank of Communications Leasing, China Bank of China Leasing, Shanghai Pudong Leasing, ICBC Leasing, etc., accounting for approximately 25% of my country's total new ship orders. Increased cooperation with domestic domestic trade transport shipowners, Seizing new opportunities in the development of the domestic cycle, Nanjing Liangjiang Shipping Co., Ltd., Shanghai Pan Asia Shipping Co., Ltd., Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Shipping Group Co., Ltd., Shanghai Dingheng Shipping Co., Ltd., etc. are all ordering new ships from domestic shipping companies to promote fleet upgrading and increase competitiveness in the domestic trade transportation market.
In 2020, ship repair companies seized the opportunities brought by international green environmental protection rules, and the desulfurization tower installation and ballast water treatment equipment transformation business was full, bringing huge profits to the company. Statistics show that despite the impact of the epidemic, 15 key repair companies completed and repaired 3,380 ships throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the ship repair output value was 19.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%. All achieved profits and exceeded the annual production and operation goals. Ship repair companies continue to promote high-end business transformation, and the repair and modification business of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships and large cruise ships has achieved new breakthroughs. The first domestic floating liquefied natural gas storage and regasification unit (LNG-FSRU) modification was successfully delivered, and the "Pacific World" luxury cruise ship entered the factory for repairs.
In 2020, due to the impact of the global epidemic and the expected economic downturn, the investment psychology of shipowners has been severely impacted in the short term. The international shipping market is at a low level and market demand is seriously insufficient. my country's new ship orders have been less than 30 million deadweight tons for two consecutive years, and the number of orders on hand has continued to decline, hitting a new low since the financial crisis in 2008. The production guarantee coefficient of shipbuilding companies (orders on hand / average completion volume in the past three years) is about 1.94 years, and only a few companies can meet production tasks of more than 2 years. Key enterprises generally face insufficient operating capacity, and some enterprises are at risk of production interruption.
In 2020, although domestic shipbuilding companies resumed work and reached production in a relatively short period of time, due to the global spread of the epidemic, the delivery of some imported equipment was delayed. In particular, foreigners were restricted from coming to China, and international shipowners, crew members, service engineers, etc. were unable to arrive in time, which had a serious impact on the installation, commissioning, sea trials and delivery of equipment for ship projects under construction. Especially since the beginning of winter, the international epidemic has accelerated its spread, and domestic epidemics have spread at multiple points. Some imported equipment also needs to be quarantined according to new regulations. The impact of the epidemic on the normal production work of shipping companies will continue.
The epidemic not only affected the investment confidence of shipowners and caused the demand in the shipping market to shrink, but also restricted normal international business exchange activities. In 2020, international maritime exhibitions in Greece, Hamburg, Japan, and the United States were all canceled or postponed, and face-to-face communication activities between shipping companies and overseas shipowners, ship agents, etc. were almost completely stopped. In 2020, due to the foundation of preliminary business negotiations, some companies realized "cloud signing" through video, but such stock orders were basically consumed last year. Therefore, it may be more difficult to develop the ship market in 2021.
Shipping companies have long-standing problems of "difficulty in making profits and financing". The epidemic has led to increased financial pressure and even risk of rupture. The epidemic has caused widespread delays in ship delivery, resulting in the inability of shipbuilding companies to withdraw their funds in a timely manner, and they face difficulties such as loan renewals and letter of guarantee extensions. Additional costs have increased in terms of epidemic prevention and control, human resources, logistics costs, etc. Although the country and local governments have introduced a series of preferential policies, it is still difficult to offset the entire cost increase. In addition, in 2020, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was higher than in 2019. The price of 6mm and 20mm steel plates for shipbuilding rose by 16.6% and 19.9% respectively from the beginning of the year. The average labor cost of shipbuilding companies increased by about 15%.
Looking forward to 2021, many countries around the world have begun to vaccinate, the COVID-19 epidemic may be gradually controlled, and world economy and trade are expected to slowly return to normal. If the international shipping and oil and gas industries recover, shipowners' investment confidence is boosted, and suppressed market demand may be released. Based on expert research and forecast results, new orders in the global shipping market may see a compensatory rebound in 2021, with new ship trading volume reaching 80 million deadweight tons, and offshore engineering equipment trading volume exceeding US$10 billion. In 2021, it is expected that my country's shipbuilding completion volume will be basically the same as in 2020, the number of new orders may increase, and the number of orders on hand will decrease slightly.
Make full use of the advantages of my country's ultra-large market and complete industrial chain to establish a multi-party linkage and collaboration mechanism led by the government and involving trading companies, shipping companies, shipbuilding companies, financial institutions, etc., centering on the domestic cycle as the main body, and a new development pattern in which the international and domestic dual cycles promote each other, promote demand-side management of the shipbuilding industry, and promote the healthy and stable development of the shipbuilding industry.
All relevant units should seize the major opportunity of green transformation of shipping and shipbuilding and accelerate the advancement of technological innovation, standard setting, equipment development and other fields. The world is cooperating to jointly address climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) continues to strengthen new carbon emission regulations and the EU implements a carbon emissions trading mechanism. The global shipbuilding and shipping market is transforming from the current use of traditional fuel ships to a new system of environmentally friendly ships. Firm confidence and determination in green transformation, increase investment in scientific research in related directions, Improve competitiveness in the field of green maritime technology and equipment.
It is recommended that industry authorities take the lead, and industry associations implement it specifically, and jointly with local governments, organize shipping, shipbuilding, steel, logistics, finance and other key enterprises and institutions to conduct centralized discussions on raw material supply, payment settlement, material control and other issues related to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, address the demands and interest concerns of relevant parties, and establish a regular coordination mechanism to deal with short-term market emergencies.
In 2021, the economic development situation and market trends are still relatively complex, and market improvements will have limited impact on companies in the short term. In response to internal and external environmental pressures such as continued high raw material prices, continued rise in exchange rates, and labor shortages, the liquidity of shipbuilding industry companies is facing tremendous pressure. It is recommended to encourage policy-based financial institutions to increase support for key shipping companies and alleviate the short-term operating pressure of companies through various methods such as increasing operating loan limits, credit lines, letter of guarantee services, and special bonds.