Ship and offshore engineering observation

In 2026, Chinese shipyards issued news of three ammonia ships in a row. You can only see the location of the three ships side by side.

The first one, on October 29, Mitsui O.S. Lines and CMB.TECH jointly named three ammonia-fueled capesize bulk carriers at Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding, with a deadweight of approximately 209.8 thousand tons and two 3,000 cubic meters ammonia fuel tanks. They will be completed in early 2027 (source: Mitsui O.S. Lines 2026-10-30 press release).

The second thing, on November 4th, is the start of H5021.

The third one is earlier: On page 12 of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's 2025 annual report, "Beihai Shipbuilding achieved the world's first ammonia fuel-prepared VLCC delivery 7 months ahead of schedule."

All three are marked with the word "first". The first two are dual-fuel, and the third is reserved - and the only one of the three that has been delivered is the only one that cannot burn ammonia at the moment.

What enables H5021 to start construction in November 2026 is the main engine. WinGD’s official website states that its ammonia-fueled two-stroke engine X-DF-A platform completed the type approval test (TAT) and factory test (FAT) in January 2026. The test machine X52DF-A-1.0 is installed on the 46,000 cubic meter LPG/ammonia carrier ordered by EXMAR; the early order book of this platform is about 30 units, covering gas carriers, bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships; the proportion of full-load ignition fuel is about 5% (source: WinGD official website).

Only after a main engine has passed type approval can the shipyard be scheduled for production. This order means that "who starts construction first" is determined by "who gets the available main engine first".

The most direct beneficiary is Dalian Shipbuilding. According to the annual report, China Shipbuilding will undertake 237 ships, 30.5067 million deadweight tons, and 175.836 billion yuan of orders in 2025, of which mid-to-high-end ship types account for more than 80%, and green ship types account for nearly 50%; as of the end of 2025, it has 652 ships, 79.973 million deadweight tons, and 467.451 billion yuan (Source: China Shipbuilding Annual Report 2025). Inserting a "world's first" into this batch of orders that have been lined up for several years does not mean tonnage, but the technology premium of the first ship and the pricing power of subsequent ships of the same type - LNG dual fuel, methanol dual fuel, liquid ammonia is completed, and the product lineage can be considered a closed loop.

The second beneficiary is the shipowner. AET is headquartered in Singapore and has long provided transportation services to energy companies, refineries and oil traders (Source: AET official website). The fuel logic of this type of shipowner is different from that of dry bulk shipowners: the cargo they transport is itself in the chain of ammonia and LPG, and fuel and cargo are in the same chain. The problem of difficulty in refueling is far smaller for them than for pure dry bulk shipowners.

Those who are constrained are shipowners who place orders after 2026. Once ammonia dual fuel becomes the new benchmark for Aframax, the discount of traditional fuel ships of the same tonnage in the second-hand market will appear before the price of new ships. There is currently no public transaction data on this point, so it is an inference.

The disagreement occurred within the same annual report.

The annual report writes three technical statuses side by side in the same paragraph: On page 12, there is "Ammonia fuel reserved VLCC" and "Ammonia fuel injection valve is used in the world's first pure ammonia-powered ship", and on page 14, there is "The world's first methanol dual-fuel powered intelligent VLCC Kaituo Lun". When the three "first" words are read together, the reader sees "ammonia ship", but the technical status and compliance meaning of the three are completely different.

"Ammonia fuel reserve" (ammonia-ready) refers to the reserved space in the hull and pipelines, which can only burn conventional fuel in the current period, and can burn ammonia after modification; "dual-fuel" means that the main engine can burn ammonia or oil; "pure ammonia power" is the third type. The difference lies in money: reserved ships are not counted as zero-carbon transport capacity today, and what you buy is a modification option; dual-fuel ships are deliverable compliance capabilities.

The second blank is the fuel source. The information only says that H5021 "uses liquid ammonia as the main fuel", without specifying where the ammonia comes from, whether it is gray ammonia or green ammonia. According to all public records, the large-scale green ammonia marine supply in China is still the 1,000 tons at Zhoushan anchorage on October 13, 2026, which is filled by the special liquid ammonia bunkering ship "Shenghang Yongle". The green ammonia comes from Jilin Songyuan Project (Source: Maritime Service Network CNSS, citing China Energy Construction).

This blank layer does not pose a problem under the EEDI caliber - the carbon burned at the ship's end is counted as zero. But under the full life cycle caliber, the majority of ammonia's carbon emissions are produced upstream, and the difference between gray ammonia and green ammonia is one order of magnitude. Zero is recorded at the ship's end and accounts are recorded upstream. If the two sides are not connected, the accounts will not fall on the same table.

A testable inference: The start-up interval of H5021's No. 2 and No. 3 ships will be significantly shorter than the interval between them and the No. 1 ship. The basis is that the contract will be signed in 2024, and the first ship will not start construction until November 2026. The two years are mainly spent on design and main engine adaptation, and the marginal workload of subsequent ships of the same type has dropped significantly.

There are two falsification signals. First, if Dalian Shipbuilding does not release the H5021 launch node in 2027, it means that the construction period of the first ship is longer than that of the conventional Afra type, and the "technical premium" will be eaten up by the construction period cost. Second, if AET places additional orders for the same type before the delivery of H5021, the judgment that "the first ship is a verification ship" is not valid, and it is the first batch ship from the beginning.

The second directional judgment: In WinGD’s order book of about 30 X-DF-A units, the proportion reserved for subsequent modifications will not be low. The reason is that the cost of reserved modifications is lower than installing a full dual-fuel system in the current period, which is more cost-effective for shipowners who are unwilling to lock in the fuel route before 2028. The falsification signal is that in the ship type details published by WinGD, dual-fuel accounts for more than 80%.

First, whether "ammonia fuel reserve" and "ammonia dual fuel" are counted separately in China Shipbuilding's 2026 annual report. Now that they are mixed in the same section of results, the separate statistics itself is a signal.

Second, the fuel tank volume and endurance design of H5021. The voyage structure of Aframax tankers is different from that of Capesize bulk carriers. The cargo hold volume occupied by the ammonia tank directly determines the economy. This number usually appears in the detailed design disclosure one to two quarters after the start of construction.

Third, will there be a second case of green ammonia marine supply after Zhoushan? If there is still only that one public record in the first half of 2027, the distance between "burning ammonia" and "burning green ammonia" will be much slower than the launch of the slipway.

This article is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice.