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Danish Ship Finance
– Financing the transition 3
The shipping industry has built its fleet and priced its
vessels on a single premise: that the demand
trajectory of the past 20 years will continue. If the
premise is wrong, the prices fall structurally, not
cyclically.
This edition focuses on the segments that serve the
fossil fuel trade – roughly 35-40% of seaborne
volumes. It does not analyse the Strait of Hormuz in
isolation; others will, at length. We are concerned with
its ripple effects: how quickly electrification is
displacing the fossil fuel cargoes that sustain the fleet,
and whether the fleet has been sized to a demand
reality that still exists. The cargo is not replaced one-
for-one: hundreds of recurring fuel voyages can
disappear when renewable energy installations
replace them.
Ship prices across the segments serving fossil fuel
trade are at decade highs. The earnings that justify
those prices owe more to Hormuz and sanctions
rerouting than to cargo growth. A vessel bought today
is priced against 10 to 20 years of forward earnings.
Weaker demand shortens the window: the vessel
priced against 15 years of earnings can be scrapped
after 10.